Pranav Mer

Vice President - Research #Commodities & #FX
#METALS #ENERGY #AGRI #FOREX #Derivatives #currency
#Technical #Analyst.

[Pranav Mer @pranavmer]

#Commodity #price #swings in the first 6-months of 2026, so far...*
From 2025 close to All time high's (ATH).
A #correction from ATH till ystd's close.

Refer disclaimers https://t.co/3b5qBrb2Ig

[Manisha Gupta @Manisha3005]

India restricts #silver imports

[Pranav Mer @pranavmer]

@Kawsar_Ai Good 1

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Tether purchased +6 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, bringing total holdings to a record 132 tonnes, now worth ~$19.8 billion.

This follows +21 and +26 tonnes acquired in Q4 and Q3 2025.

Tether’s gold holdings have more than DOUBLED in just 12 months and nearly TRIPLED in value over the same period.

In 2025, the crypto firm acquired more gold than every central bank except Poland.

In Q1 2026, the only central banks that bought more gold were Poland, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and China.

Tether is competing with central banks for gold.

[Manisha Gupta @Manisha3005]

#Gold Imports India
FY25 : $58.01 Bln
FY26 : $71.98 Bln

India Exports : FY26
Gems and jewellery -3% Y-y
Cut and polished diamonds -9% Y-Y
olished lab diamonds -11%
#Silver Jewelry : +52%
#platinum jewellery +39%

[Ekansh Mittal @EkanshMittal_KW]

India's gold market has a secret (based on article in Economic Times)

A handful of banks and dealers control the entire supply chain through an opaque "consignment route."

Result: Hidden costs, excessive leverage, and zero transparency.

The thread 🧵

📊 THE SCALE

India imports ~800 tonnes of gold annually.

Who controls it?
- 5-6 nominated banks (HDFC, ICICI, SBI, Yes, Kotak)
- 30-40 bullion dealers
- That's it.

Out of lakhs of jewellers, only 50-60 top dealers get access.

Silver? Even more concentrated (only ~20 dealers).

🎯 THE MECHANISM: "Consignment Route"

Started with 1998 RBI circular.

How it works:

1. Overseas supplier ships gold to India
2. Nominated bank stores it (ownership stays with supplier)
3. Bank sells to select dealers "on consignment"
4. Price "fixed" days AFTER gold physically enters India

Problem:

International spot price ≠ Domestic price you pay

Hidden margins at every layer.

💰 THE HIDDEN COSTS

Official price components:
- LBMA base price ✓
- 6% customs duty ✓
- "Handling charges" (not disclosed) ❌
- "Bank margins" (not disclosed) ❌
- "Dealer margins" (not disclosed) ❌

Insiders estimate: Banks charge ₹150-160 per kg premium
Exchange route (IIBX): Only ₹20 per kg

That's 7-8x markup for opacity.

For retail buyers:

Buying from bank:
₹3,000 per 10gm differential (they update prices slowly on falls, quickly on rises)

Buying from Zaveri Bazaar:
"Oldest trick: They sell you 18 carat, call it 21. When you return to sell, they say it's 18."

Fleeced on both sides.

🔧 THE LEVERAGE GAME

This is where it gets interesting (and dangerous).

Under current system:

To control ₹1 Cr of gold (1 kg), dealer pays upfront:
Only ₹60,000 (0.6% of value)

How?
- Customs duty = 6% of value
- But banks fund 90% of duty
- Dealer pays only 10% upfront

Result:

With ₹60L, a dealer can control ₹100 Cr of gold (100 kg).

That's 166x leverage.

Impact:

"Around 30-40 bullion dealers may be controlling the entire country's bullion market based on this leverage."

This isn't available to everyone.

Only "cosy relationships" with banks get this access.

📍 THE OPACITY PROBLEM

Why different cities have different gold prices:

Mumbai gold ≠ Chennai gold ≠ Delhi gold

Reason: No centralized domestic benchmark

Each local dealer passes on "varying intermediary costs" (translation: hidden margins)

Gold cleared through customs "on provisional basis" with final settlements later.

Makes it impossible to track real-time "all-in" cost.

Grey market thrives when official pricing becomes too inefficient.

🏛️ THE SOLUTION THAT ISN'T HAPPENING

Government created India International Bullion Exchange (IIBX) in GIFT City.

Benefits:
- Transparent pricing ✓
- Lower costs (₹20 vs ₹150-160 per kg) ✓
- Can buy as little as 100gm (vs 10kg bank minimum) ✓
- No hidden margins ✓

Banks' response?

"Token trades" only.

Why?

Banks currently earn ₹25-30 Cr annual revenue from bullion desks (10-12 people).

Moving to exchange = Transparent margins = Lower revenue.

Current system = Opaque = Higher fees.

"No system is transparent. Because it is non-transparent, it makes money for them."

🎲 THE STALEMATE

Industry bodies: "Everything should be routed through IIBX. Will you allow 70% of equity to trade outside exchanges?"

Banks: Comfortable in existing route, not questioned, why change?

RBI: Silent (did not respond to ET Prime queries)

Government: Pushing exchange route but not making it mandatory

Fear of "unintended effects" of sweeping change.

📉 FOR INVESTORS

If you're buying physical gold in India:

You're paying:
- 6% official customs duty ✓
- Unknown bank margins ❌
- Unknown dealer margins ❌
- City-specific premiums ❌

Alternative:

Gold ETFs, Sovereign Gold Bonds, or IIBX if you have access.

At least pricing is transparent.

The irony:

India wants to become a global "price setter" for gold.

But domestically, we don't even have transparent price discovery.

As of now:

"The muscle is in Zaveri Bazaar. It doesn't want to move to GIFT City."

Vested interests > National interest.

Source: Article by N Subramanian in Economic Times

Research desk → https://t.co/Ek66KEolYG

[Pranav Mer @pranavmer]

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[Pranav Mer @pranavmer]

*Wishing you & your family a very Happy Diwali.*

- Pranav Mer & Family

[Pranav Mer @pranavmer]

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[Pranav Mer @pranavmer]

#spot #gold break's-out above key #resistance
#Support now holds at $3380/ $3300 while sustaining above $3450, prices may test potential targets $3560 & $3720.
Disclaimer https://t.co/SF9k6gSylR
#bullion #festivedemand #fed #interestrates #etf #tradetariffs #safehaven #hedgefunds