Igor Chesnokov

Philosopher Trader | Price first, narratives second

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

$QQQ nice behaviour in futures. Bullish so far despite the rate news.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

@Breedlove22 Follow the money, find the truth. - very true

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

Clarity is the answer, discipline is the response.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

@PerceptivTrader Good one.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

Seeing oil finally correct is one of the most pleasant things to witness. In my estimation the chances of seeing a similar spike in the coming years is minimal.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

No bear market without bank stocks: $BAC $C $JPM Good relative strength in $BLLN and a potential defensive play $DRN

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

Choose those who listen.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

Drop abstraction. Operate on primitives.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

solana:Es9vMFrzaCERmJfrF4H2FYD4KCoNkY11McCe8BenwNYB dominance back in the rising channel. Can be another strike of the whip, we're still chopping. Not bullish 100%

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

$USDT dominance doesn't send a clear signal about the direction of the market at this point. Once again, chop, suitable for short-term counter-trend trading.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

Space stocks are starting to show strength again, and I think this can become one of the major market themes for the second half of the year and beyond.

In this video I discuss the space economy, commercial space infrastructure, satellite communications, Earth observation, launch companies, and the current market setup in space-related stocks.

Stocks mentioned: $ASTS, $SATS, $VSAT, $YSS, $BKSY, $PL, $SATL, $SPIR, $FLY, $LUNR, $RDW, $RKLB, $NASA

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

Make the most of what you already have.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

$AVEX - military drone manufacturer. looks like it is about to start the "low cheat" breakout in the coming days.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

$XE keeps building that nice IPO base. I don't think it will retreat much when / if the Iran war is stopped. The "ditch oil" transformation can't be stopped now. It will just lift immediate economic concerns.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

00:00 - Intro. Inflation data release next week
02:10 - $BTC near the declining 200 DMA; potential $ETH catch-up
05:10 - Chopping to the upside
06:30 - Potential setup in $HYPE
08:07 - Strength in $GIGGLE; actionable as well
08:42 - $SUI breakout from the bottom; resistance at the 200 DMA
09:42 - $ZEC: the breakout that worked. Privacy coins remain strong
10:15 - All stock markets, except the Dow, are extended
12:08 - Support in volatility - a cautionary sign
12:50 - Copper breakout is working. Electrification is the main outcome of the US-Iran war
14:00 - The 10-year yield breakout and strength in emerging markets are actionable signs of doubt in the US economy
15:45 - $MU, $SNDK, and $INTC show signs of blow-off tops
17:13 - $AUD and $GBP breaking out
17:57 - Big banks are weak - another cautionary sign
18:32 - Space stocks want to go to space
21:13 - South Korea: an extended trade that worked
21:39 - $SOLV Energy: a sign of things to come
22:12 - $SOLS: new breakouts stop working
22:42 - Nuclear sector: new drivers. Watch $XE for the IPO base
26:16 - New ideas: $PLTD, $NAVN, $EEM

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

$USO - it seems that oil is about to correct here. Iran war resolution inbound?

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

$USO - almost forgot, haha. Oil looks bullish. Maybe about to test the previous highs of 2022. The chances of Iran war continuation are growing. Prepare for shake - shake - shake.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

00:00 - Intro: Bitcoin and the importance of market regime
02:50 - Hyperliquid: a choppy breakout
05:24 - Zcash: the privacy coin theme remains intact
06:55 - Euphoria in semis and weakness in banks
08:05 - Support in volatility and strength in oil: correction risk
08:56 - 10-year yield breaking out = long-term concerns about the U.S. economy
10:10 - Idea: $AVEX, AEVEX Corp.
10:37 - Overconcentration of innovation in the U.S.: AI and space, maybe

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

From a long term perspective oil is doomed.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Iraq in Talks With OPEC to Boost Production to 5M B/D: Minister

First UAE, next everyone else pumpmaxxes

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

10year treasury yield breaking out. Long term about the US economy are becoming more pronounced. Kinda makes sense with the AI disruption, high oil prices, political instability.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

Show (and chop) must go on - is still the name of the game here. Another news driven bounce, but the most critical metric - oil prices stays high and doesn't seem to capitulate. On the other hand the 10 year yield retreated a bit and that means that Trump's new rhetoric about leaving Iran has lifted some pressure of negative expectations from the States economy. Trump announcement today in the evening, I think it will be a bit like a statement from the Fed. Very important but will take some time to digest and choose direction.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

Structural progress is the only reward.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

$USO - almost forgot, haha. Oil looks bullish. Maybe about to test the previous highs of 2022. The chances of Iran war continuation are growing. Prepare for shake - shake - shake.

[Igor Chesnokov @prax81]

Still there are interesting situations in the world of stocks:

$NASA - space ETF with exposure to space SpaceX SPVs as well. Nice breakout from cup without handle.

$XE - designer of the new generation of the nuclear reactor. Compact, supposedly safe. A perfect answer to energy bottlenecks of today. IPO base building looking nice.

I actually think that $XE can replicate what $MWH did with it's IPO base breakout. It's a different business - full cycle solar power-plant company, but still in a new energy space too.