Predge

Settlement-risk data for prediction markets: every UMA dispute and rule clarification on Polymarket, signed and verifiable. Free API, x402.

[Predge @PredgeAI]

Settlement risk on prediction markets, measured.

1 Jan to 2 Oct 2026: 3,005 disputes on 2,666 Polymarket markets. Of 2,543 settled disputed markets, 853 (33.5%) settled differently from the disputed proposal.

Signed, verifiable records. Free API: https://t.co/p1HleQtEiC

[Predge @PredgeAI]

Predge signed a record of this dispute while the vote was open and again after it resolved. Both snapshots pass our verifier.

Full issue, tx hashes and files: https://t.co/peMwaPh57A
Check a record: https://t.co/JJS0kw4D9n

[Predge @PredgeAI]

Dispute of the week #1: Polymarket's "Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?"

$5.5M open interest on 18 Oct. The Yes proposal was disputed twice and the outcome went to a UMA token-holder vote. It resolved Yes on 20 Oct at 00:30 UTC.

[Predge @PredgeAI]

What an agent's settlement logic should take from this:
- a price near 0.97 or 0.9995 is a price, not a resolution
- after a second dispute, plan for days
- do not spend collateral that is still in a vote

[Predge @PredgeAI]

@Ox88Josh @monad Thanks Josh! Happy to hear it. Easiest is Telegram: https://t.co/TWYcNr2Szc. Send the idea there in 2-3 lines and I'll get back to you after our Monad submission today.

[Predge @PredgeAI]

Built for @monad Metropolis: Predge Guard tells you, or your AI agent, whether a disputed Polymarket answer will hold before you trade it.

1 in 3 disputed answers changed in 2026. 26 verdicts already on Monad mainnet.

Tap a market, no typing: https://t.co/kuZa001VhS

[Predge @PredgeAI]

@monad @nansen_ai @KuruExchange @perpltrade @withAUSD @MetaMask @chainlink @envio_indexer @privy_io @dynamic_xyz Why Monad: measured on mainnet, a verdict lands 1 to 2 s after its request and costs about $0.001 (38 markets, 66 tx). Cheap and fast enough to require before every single trade.

Code: https://t.co/aEEqTt9HrR

[Predge @PredgeAI]

@monad @nansen_ai @KuruExchange @perpltrade @withAUSD @MetaMask @chainlink @envio_indexer Sign in with email (@privy_io), the wallet you already use (@dynamic_xyz) or just a passkey (mera by Category Labs). No USDC on Monad? Aurora Intents tops up from 20+ chains.

On Android it's the same flow, and your fingerprint is the wallet.

[Predge @PredgeAI]

@monad @nansen_ai Step 3, act in one tap: a @KuruExchange note that pays $1 if the answer flips (testnet, live book), a BTC short on Perpl margined in Agora's AUSD, or wait.

Agents get the same rule: our @MetaMask agent wallet plugin refuses the bet while the vote is open.

[Predge @PredgeAI]

@monad Step 2, who's exposed: @nansen_ai data, paid per call over x402 on Monad.

Trump "Ammunition" is in a vote right now. Top holders: $91,170 on the disputed No vs $36,208 on Yes (12 Oct). That decides the next step: hedge, size down or wait.

[Predge @PredgeAI]

@nxt3d Nice, a transaction type covers it. Our signed record carries the UMA dispute tx hashes on Polygon plus the on-chain outcome, so an attestation could point at those directly. Does adapterscan accept a tx hash from another chain? Happy to send a sample record.

[Predge @PredgeAI]

@Ox88Josh Our bet: the agent never holds the main wallet. It gets a capped allowance (per call, per day) enforced outside the agent, pays per call over x402, and each call returns a signed receipt. You audit small, verifiable payments, not one big key. What are you building?

[Predge @PredgeAI]

Settlement risk on prediction markets, measured.

1 Jan to 2 Oct 2026: 3,005 disputes on 2,666 Polymarket markets. Of 2,543 settled disputed markets, 853 (33.5%) settled differently from the disputed proposal.

Signed, verifiable records. Free API: https://t.co/p1HleQtEiC

[Predge @PredgeAI]

Also inside: a daily "hold or change?" dispute game, a weekly league, a home-screen widget, receipts on Solana, and evidence packs you unlock with SKR. Testers welcome, tell us what confused you.

[Predge @PredgeAI]

1 in 3 disputed Polymarket markets that settled this year ended up different from the disputed proposal (853 of 2,543).

Settle Watch alerts you when a market you hold is disputed, and verifies every record on your phone.

Built for #ClockIn 👇
https://t.co/zrJFakWcJM

[Predge @PredgeAI]

@Agent402Tools A paid canary is the right test, a 200 on its own says nothing about whether the payment settled. Does the canary also confirm the facilitator settled onchain before it counts a call as up?

[Predge @PredgeAI]

@egortrushenkov One number to add: from Jan 1 to Oct 2 we counted 3,005 disputes on 2,666 Polymarket markets, and only 323 were disputed twice or more and sent to a UMA vote. So most disputed markets never reach the token vote at all.