Prediction Xray

X-ray for prediction markets: who decides the outcome, how it resolves, what's in the fine print.

Support: by @burnedcore

[Prediction Xray @predictionxray]

Once a disputed market is linked to its mainnet vote, the next question is how concentrated that vote was. Sometimes a handful of addresses carried the outcome.

To be precise: concentration is dominance, not wrongdoing. UMA's design assumes holders converge on truth.

Showing who holds power isn't an accusation.

[Prediction Xray @predictionxray]

A Polymarket market resolves on Polygon. If the resolution is disputed, it escalates to UMA's DVM - and the vote that settles it happens on Ethereum mainnet.

Two chains, no link between them out of the box.

Dispute Votes reconstructs it: for every disputed market, the mainnet vote that decided it.

[Prediction Xray @predictionxray]

The resolution risk score is a 0-100 weighted sum of seven on-chain factors: disputed, reset rounds, pause count, post-trade clarifications, resolution lag, late one-sided buying spike, price-vs-outcome divergence.

Check any row and you see each factor's value, weight, and points contributed.

Publishing the formula is the point. A score you can't decompose is a score you can't argue with.

[Prediction Xray @predictionxray]

A category lens that scopes every view at once. Set it to Politics and the risk lists, dispute views and event groups all narrow with it.

It's in the sidebar, not the filter row, because it isn't a per-page filter - it's the frame you're looking through.

Resolution behaviour isn't uniform across categories.

[Prediction Xray @predictionxray]

Sorted by resolution risk, highest first. The markets most likely to resolve messily.
Every entry opens into its component factors, so you can check whether you agree with the ranking.
High risk means "watch this one," not a trading signal.

https://t.co/QLKAqydtCJ

[Prediction Xray @predictionxray]

Every indexed Polymarket market in one table.
Computed from raw on-chain events rather than pulled from Polymarket's API - an independent reconstruction, not a mirror of their data.
Sort it, filter it, drill into any market to see how it resolved and whether that resolution was contested.
https://t.co/POTnJVX8xY

[Prediction Xray @predictionxray]

Polymarket disputes aren't settled on Polymarket, or on Polygon. UMA token holders settle them, voting on Ethereum mainnet.

PredictionXray links the two: for any disputed market, the deciding vote and how much of it sat with the largest holders.

https://t.co/eJJ3DPS70e