Predictor

nCMO @Solana | ⚡ Prediction markets enthusiast & Solana builder since 2021 | ⚡️₿ Bitcoin Maxi since 2016 | ⚡ Here for the tech, the memes, and the vibes

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

Spent 4 years obsessed with prediction markets 🔮🔮

Every tweet I post here will be a mix of insights, alpha, and lessons from building in the prediction market space. Let’s make it fun & profitable 🙌🏼🙌🏼

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

In TradFi, we often call it the promoter premium

Some companies in the same sector consistently trade at higher P/E, P/B multiples than industry leaders and command those premium valuations for years.

Always bet on the jockey, not the horse

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

i have a thesis that buybacks don't actually work

hyperliquid makes $800M annualized revenue
pump fun makes $440M annualized revenue

$HYPE trades at $65B FDV while $PUMP trades at $1.4B FDV

both teams do regularly recurring buybacks with portions of their profits from the business but they trade at vastly different ratios to their revenues

i believe the difference is not in how much actual revenue is generated by the business but instead its reflective of the trust premium ascribed to the team determined by their actions and decisions in the market, hyperliquid never overpromised anything, only focused on shipping product and emphatically rewarded their core users based on pre-determined metrics that contributed the most to the platform, the core users of hyperliquid have a very high trust rating with Jeff, & even if you believe the perps revenues are slightly more durable which maybe they are, i believe this trust premium on their execution and social alignment with the community is a major factor in why the token trades so well

in contrast, pump fun made $1B in revenue, raised another $1B in their ICO, and promised an airdrop to users that was never delivered, even though they are one of the most successful and consistent businesses in crypto, they do not have social alignment with their core userbase and therefore do not have a comparable trust premium that hyperliquid has, recently it seems they've made concerted effort to improve comms and talk to community more, i believe that if they were ever to seriously focus attention on shifting this dynamic by actually doing the airdrop they've promised and responding to the concerns of their core user base, then the token would trade 10-15x higher, as it would also likely materially increase their volume, attention, and resulting revenues on their platform

bitcoin makes $0 in revenue but has a ~$1.3T market cap, it has the greatest trust premium of any asset to ever exist, people know that there will only ever be 21M coins, and they know that the network will always continue to function no matter what to fulfill its necessary actions

this is part of what ive been talking about when i say that there is intangible value that contributes to the valuation of a business in addition to the tangible value that is determined purely from revenues and other metrics

trust, memetics, and attention are all very important and heavily underdiscussed in markets

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

how can Robinhood Chain flip Ethereum when it’s built on Ethereum?

[DEGEN NEWS @DegenerateNews]

NEW: @RobinhoodApp FLIPS @ethereum IN 24H DEX VOLUME

SOURCE: @DefiLlama - https://t.co/4h276GRKdN

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

I've survived 702 @solana epochs - OBSIDIAN CLASS.

https://t.co/SagySZBHQ7

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

Is there any good news for Solana at this point? What’s the optimistic outlook?
@world_xyz

[world @world_xyz]

update: after careful deliberation from the team in the last 24 hours

world has made the decision to migrate off of solana and onto @RobinhoodCrypto chain

this tactful pivot was not made lightly

our sincere appreciation goes out to the solana foundation and community

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

@0x_diablo wen next solana mobile 📱 hackathon??? Wen ? 🤩

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

Strategy has acquired xyz $BTC at xyz price,
announcement will be made today or tomorrow @saylor

[DEGEN NEWS @DegenerateNews]

NEW: COINBASE BITCOIN PREMIUM INDEX RECORDS LONGEST HOURLY POSITIVE STREAK SINCE 24-26 OF OCTOBER

SOURCE: https://t.co/nAT3Z08vhq

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

GMONAD 🟢🟢

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

if tomorrow @monad spot trades at the current fdv levels of perp around $3b ( binance & hyperliquid) , i’m a big buyer on spot

even if the chain fails or doesn’t get strong community support, a $2–3b fdv for monad feels like free money

not even talking about circulating mcap here, even if btc drops to $60k, a $2–3b fdv for monad is basically like buying solana at $8–10

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

if tomorrow @monad spot trades at the current fdv levels of perp around $3b ( binance & hyperliquid) , i’m a big buyer on spot

even if the chain fails or doesn’t get strong community support, a $2–3b fdv for monad feels like free money

not even talking about circulating mcap here, even if btc drops to $60k, a $2–3b fdv for monad is basically like buying solana at $8–10

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

🧠 free money setup

monad ico at $2.5b fdv on coinbase
market asking if it’ll be >$3b one day after tge — current yes price 85%

that’s roughly +20% upside in next 2 weeks,
easy farm, clear math 🤑

https://t.co/2dqYMSGREc

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

one dino coin you should add to your watchlist and track closely is BCH / bitcoin cash

it’s showing strong performance compared to other dino coins, with no major price correction and price hovering near the recent swing high

if it breaks above the 660–720 range, 🚀🚀🚀

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

Prices will fall with volume. Basic supply-chain economics hold: learning curves, scale, competition and modular designs will push per-unit costs down over time

[Andrew Kang @Rewkang]

Assume 1 robot = $50k

100,000 robots = $5B revenue
1M robots = $50B
10M robots = $500B
100M robots = $5T
1B robots = $50T
20b robots = $1 Quadrillion

Humanoid robots will be the biggest product market in the history of ever by magnitudes

The future largest companies will be robot manufacturers

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

The smartest traders treat prediction markets as a data source, not a gamble

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

Years of trading have taught me the hard lesson. Buying in when noise is loudest is best way to loose money.

Learn from others or pay the price in fees—either way, it's a costly lesson. Learn before you burn.

#TradingWisdom

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

Prediction markets are mirrors of human expectation—sometimes irrational, sometimes brilliantly predictive

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

Prediction markets reward patience and observation. Jumping in without understanding the flow usually backfires

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

Every prediction market is a story told by thousands of decisions, and the patterns are incredibly revealing

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

Prediction markets aren’t just bets—they’re a real-time pulse on what people expect to happen. Watching them is like reading tomorrow’s news today.

[Predictor @PredictorSolana]

Trading isn’t about certainty. It’s about understanding probabilities, and acting before others do.