RoboStrategy published our first Shareholder Letter, and in it we discuss our outlook on Robotics industry.
While we've already reached the GPT-3 era, there won't be a ChatGPT moment. The adoption curve will be somewhere between AI chatbots and autonomous vehicles. There will be no single day where it clicks for the global consciousness, but nonetheless a rapid permeation of new autonomous machines of all shapes and sizes. Physical AI is already getting really good for a variety of use cases, but we can't instantly supply millions of robots to customers like we can with AI instances. By next year, intelligence will no longer be the bottleneck, it will be the actual robots.
https://t.co/ZqzJwj81nc
Figure held an all-hands this week, and I've decided to share it here publicly
Given our rate of progress, our roadmap has completely changed over the last year, and the team has doubled
It's important to get everyone aligned on our mission going forward
Evan Beard of @standardbots on where robotics is today:
“Robots are in their infancy. It’s like the 1973 equivalent for the computer industry.”
With millions of use cases coming, their answer is an AI platform:
“We’re building a platform, not just robots, but the whole software ecosystem. That’s what we’ve tried to do from the beginning, to be that common layer across all these different use cases.”
Standard Bots CEO @evanbeard breaks down their new AI platform and how it could revolutionize American manufacturing.
"This allows you to essentially vibe code your robot"
Full interview:
0:00 Intro
6:39 Vibe coding robots
8:19 Locate vision system
11:52 400+ customers
13:58 Origin story
16:08 Where are the competitors?
18:56 Vertical integration is key
22:29 Why robot arms over humanoids
27:04 Robots vs the car industry
29:23 The thing to fear as a builder
31:31 America vs China
34:21 Congress and FCC robot ban
38:31 99% of US arms made abroad
42:31 Building everything inhouse
44:47 The plan to win
47:10 Targeting 10% of US installs
49:22 How the next decade will look like
I love humanoids but it’s awesome to see the step change evolution of the robot arm from essentially a 1970s PC to something you can now vibe code
Programmable robots -> instructable robots
"If you have an iPad, you can vibe code robots. And potentially save your company millions of dollars while you’re at it."
@Forbes robotics reporter @johnkoetsier interviewed @evanbeard for an exclusive on the launch of Standard Bots AI.
Read the story here: https://t.co/RgmKEutpNo
Robotics research output is accelerating
More accessible and cheaper hardware, tooling, talent and capital waves, better general purpose models are all major contributors here
@danprimack@RoboStrategy is hiring for a head of People and Talent. If you worked in that group or know people that have worked there, please reach out
Elon has said that the public capital markets is around 100x larger than the private capital markets
MSTR was proved that pools of public equity capital had massive interest in companies providing exposure to inaccessible assets. MSTR's largest shareholder is Capital Group, whose mutual funds own ~10% of MSTR's basic shares - around $6 Billion. Capital Group manages ~$3.6 Trillion. Mutual funds collectively manage around ~$30 Trillion and this is not even the only pool of capital in the public equity markets that don't have access to private AI/robotics companies.
RoboStrategy going public is just the start of our journey to establish a new model for Venture Capital
REITs broke out in the ‘90s, ETFs in the ‘00s and the era of public VC is next, starting with the companies building the future of the physical world
Dominance of closed source models is an existential threat to Nvidia
Jensen has been clear since earlier this year that strong open source models are essential
It’s game theoretically optimal for Nvidia to build frontier open source models optimized for its own hardware
The Jensen Huang episode.
0:00:00 – Is Nvidia’s biggest moat its grip on scarce supply chains?
0:16:25 – Will TPUs break Nvidia’s hold on AI compute?
0:41:06 – Why doesn’t Nvidia become a hyperscaler?
0:57:36 – Should we be selling AI chips to China?
1:35:06 – Why doesn’t Nvidia make multiple different chip architectures?
Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc. Enjoy!