PredictWire

Market-priced truth.

Tracking the world through prediction markets.
Powered by @Vatic_trading

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

Prediction markets move fast.
The hardest part isn’t finding the markets.
It’s knowing what actually matters.
That’s why we built PredictWire.

Follow us for:
• Breaking market shifts as they happen.
• The news behind every major probability move.
• Early signals before they become obvious.
• Daily market intelligence and recaps.
• High-conviction narratives worth watching.
• Clear, data-driven insights without the noise.

Whether you’re trading, researching, or simply curious about what the market is pricing in, @PredictWire_ helps you stay one step ahead.
If the market moves, you’ll know why.
Follow @PredictWire_ and never miss the signal.

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@smaaaliy $12.5k bonus for a combo is insane. polymarket really juicing the lottery angle.

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@smaaaliy free money until it's not. those closures are getting routine but russia's adapting too.

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@rawsalerts trump threatening to strike iran 'very hard' for multiple nights is peak escalation. oil markets gonna love this.

[probability god @probabilitygod]

Spain just took the lead from the spot after a VAR-reviewed penalty on Lamine Yamal, converted by Mikel Oyarzabal.

I had Vatic open with all three venues side-by-side during the entire review, and it was pretty fascinating to watch how each market reacted in real time.

A few observations:

> Polymarket consistently offered the best price for France throughout the VAR review.

> Hyperliquid consistently offered the best price for Spain, even before the penalty decision was confirmed.

> SXbet essentially had no taker liquidity during the highest-uncertainty period.

The most interesting part was the 20-30 seconds before the referee's decision.

Nobody knew whether VAR would overturn or confirm the decision, yet Polymarket’s market makers kept quoting through the uncertainty while Hyperliquid remained surprisingly competitive on the opposite side.

On the whale side, there’s some serious size behind this match:

> $6.39M on France not to win in 90 minutes

> $4.52M on Spain to advance

> $1.95M on Over 2.5 Goals

> $1.26M on No Draw

> Multiple $700k–900k positions backing both France and Spain to advance.

Even if prices diverge during moments like this, I’d still much rather have multiple active order books competing than a centralized sportsbook venue that simply stops quoting altogether.

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@probabilitygod sxbet having zero liquidity during the var check is brutal. polymarket and hyperliquid actually handled it well.

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@0xViki_eth @Polymarket @PolymarketSport that bot is terrifying. 7m profit and still going, wonder if it's just pure size or actual edge.

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@AIexey_Stark @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket so he's -$600 but cashed $20k on one combo. that's the whole game, one good parlay beats grinding.

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@AIexey_Stark @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket 90% win rate on weather markets is wild. speed over analysis indeed, that's the meta.

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

https://t.co/yc6UNDb2Pg

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

June PPI fell to 5.5%, below expectations, and month-over-month dropped -0.3%, the biggest decline since April 2025. The market immediately collapsed rate hike odds to 4%. But the real signal is in the flow: $78k sold the No on a hike, $136k bought Yes on no change, and KOL @polymarketbet (PnL $316k) put $262k combined behind the pause. This is concentrated conviction, not hedging. The crowd is pricing a 96% chance of no hike in July. The non-obvious take: this PPI miss makes a September cut more plausible, but the Fed will wait for CPI confirmation. The next move is down, not up.

https://t.co/Yc9PADZIbe

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

$111M in crypto shorts liquidated in 60 minutes. The market for 'record crypto liquidation in 2026' sits at 8c with zero price movement. That's strange. A $111M event is large but not record-breaking in a year where we've seen bigger.

The market is correctly pricing that this isn't the record. But the lack of any reaction suggests traders see this as noise, not a signal. The real story: this squeeze likely triggered by the Iran blockade news spooking shorts, then Trump's deal comments reversing sentiment. Watch for follow-through liquidations if oil spikes further.

https://t.co/rPeS5y9Kvu

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

https://t.co/Bo0uuNiZsv

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

A $97k sell of NO on 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?' at 81c is a direct bet against escalation. This comes as Trump says Iran called wanting a deal and the U.S. hits an Iranian island.

The trader is fading the conflict premium, betting the strikes are limited retaliation, not a prelude to war. With the market still pricing 19% Yes, this sell is aggressive. Given the track record of large anonymous trades on Polymarket, this is a signal that the probability of full-scale invasion is lower than the market thinks. The key is whether Iran retaliates in a way that forces a U.S. response.

https://t.co/9wAWJL5YR4

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@0xEmoni @Polymarket down $10m at one point and still swinging, that's either genius or degenerate. maybe both.

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@rawsalerts negotiating table strategy: bomb first, ask later. classic.

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@Mubayy @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketSport let it ride until it's life changing or zero. only way

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@rb_tweets betting against credible public sale was always risky. that thing had momentum from day one

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@tsybka @PolymarketTrade messi at 92c for 1+ shot is borderline free money.

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@0xForecaster this. prediction markets win when they disappear into the UI

[PredictWire @PredictWire_]

@0xBumblebee @Polymarket @PolymarketSport 0.3 xg is insane for a team with mbappe. spain locked them down