probability god

YES Chad | Polymarket Tools

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@rileywestreel yeah. both of these are equally important. we see that ai infrastructure requires numerous financial indices in order to function efficiently, and there's no better place to develop these other than polymarket

[probability god @probabilitygod]

institutional hedging using onchain event contracts just became an actual thing.

> polymarket completed its first onchain block trade involving an event contract tied to H100 GPU rental prices

> FalconX acted as the broker/dealer facilitating the transaction

> Anera Labs, a company building infrastructure around AI compute and risk transfer, was the institutional counterparty

my hypothesis is that something like the following is happening:

Anera likely offers compute-related services to institutions that want predictable GPU costs and reduced exposure to compute-price volatility.

for example, if they agree to provide H100 compute at a fixed price for the month, they become exposed to the risk of actual rental prices skyrocketing.

one way to hedge that risk is by gaining exposure to the corresponding event contract.

if GPU rental prices end up above a certain threshold, profits from the event contract can offset losses on the underlying compute business.

whether this specific trade was structured exactly like that is unknown, but the broader idea is what matters.

this whole situation proves that there's real institutional demand for hedging products, and event contracts are arguably one of the most flexible financial primitives for doing so. polymarket has a legitimate chance to become a core component of the broader financial system if this trend continues.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

We're excited to announce Polymarket has facilitated the first ever on-chain, institutional block trade in the prediction market space.

Institutions using Polymarket to hedge GPU compute exposure at scale give a glimpse into both the future & the promise of prediction markets.

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@rb_tweets @abhionpoly ohhh yeah i agree 100%. it's not that i justify the action of aping at 80c, i am just menitoning that it's not an unreasonable thing to do, when u are enthusiastic about a piece of information that u think gave you insane edge in a market

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@RuujSs exactly. the opportunities are endless, gonna publish a more detailed post on this one aspect of prediction markets

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@agenticageforce will take a look at it 🫡

[probability god @probabilitygod]

this opens up a brand new industry. it starts with h100 renting, and it can expand to oil companies, food companies, manufacturing companies etc. as long as the product offered by an industry is correlated with the price of an external factor (inflation, geopolitical instability, interest rates) hedging opportunities can emerge from associated event contracts

[probability god @probabilitygod]

i think this kind of hedge financial instruments in the form of event contracts can go a long way when it comes to institutional adoption.

in this case anera labs hedged their h100 renting contracts. similarly a company selling some good (e.g. grains, food in general) can hedge their bulk sales against a montly inflation event contract. same goes for ship owners, oil companies etc. the verticals than can be built on top of this primitive are infinite

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@qwerty_ytrevvq environment is what shapes you. the more supportive and pleasant it is, the more you can flourish inside it

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@Kropanchik @Polymarket @poly_data @PolymarketSport i think these markets will get more clear as the competition progresses.

personally i would look into spanish or french players more, since these teams are the ones with the highest probabilites of advancing to the later stages of the event.

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@nursexxl @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade one can only hope 🙏🙏

[probability god @probabilitygod]

this is the result of being conditioned to years of btc/alt 100x futures trading, and memecoin 1000x return chasing.

when tradfi assets started coming into the game, crypto traders started transfering these skills into prediction markets and equity/commodity perp future trading.

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@qwerty_ytrevvq bonds are popping up everywhere left and right. all u have to do is keep your eye out for such opportunities, or have some decent market scanner running automated strats

also i think that the bigger the amount of polymarket, the more bonding opportunities will appear.

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@said116dao at least michael seems compassionate

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@kober1337 choose life

degen speculator vs conservative investor archetype

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@joostienXD nice find bro

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@devjoshstevens yoooo this is massive boyzz.

so i if i get it right, people will be able to privately market make event contracts outside of the public market?

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@Bambardini yeah, and it's not just compute risk. this will expand to all kind of markets and assets whose price is correlated with geopolitical events, interest rates, inflation, commodity perfromance etc.

[probability god @probabilitygod]

i agree the whole situation is so messed up. imo the clarification shouldn't have been published, or it should have been there in the first place during market creation. adding such a crucial piece of information during dispute was the worst decision they could take at this point

[probability god @probabilitygod]

@PolymarketDevs doesn't sound like something practical from a taker standpoint. especially the fact that u can't cancel. would suggest reconsidering