A @Polymarket trader is taking a contrarian bet on the 2025 box office.
With the Minecraft Movie odds up to ~98%, they're backing the soon-to-release Avatar 3 instead, risking $2k for a potential $110k payout.
Despite Avatar 1 and 2 holding the #1 and #3 all-time highest grossing movies, the market is pricing timing risk over franchise strength.
Excited to launch the Crypto Flow Index: the first real-time sentiment signal built directly from Polymarket flow instead of price
More categories coming soon :)
Everyone loves the 10x trades that turn $1k into $10k overnight
But, the most reliable money is often made taking the boring side over and over again
And funny enough, the highest EV trades often feel the worst because we're naturally loss-averse
This is an interesting example of noise you can likely countertrade. Unless this is an insider (more likely to be a degen based on past trading activity), he's betting against something Jesse essentially confirmed.
So the market is essentially giving it a 11% chance that Jesse's word can't be trusted... but he doesn't have much of an incentive to lie; If anything he'd want to be hyping it up.
For Coinbase, a publicly-traded crypto company, it'd make sense to be risk-averse here and wait to make sure everything is in order before rushing to launch a token.
Attached a clip of Jesse commenting on this below
https://t.co/p1abLrKGa0
The takeaway is to be more mindful of these kinds of mispricings; start thinking more in terms of EV.
One trade won't make you rich, but a diversified portfolio of positive EV bets can
Over time, the boring side, repeated enough times, becomes the edge
We're excited to officially launch the Polymarket Builders Program.
To start, we are giving back $1m+ to builders via grants + rewards to those who integrate Polymarket's new builder codes.
Learn more & apply ๐
https://t.co/oujzXXXmYX