imagine a World Cup where a country pulls out over flags in the stands. wouldn't even bet against it tbh. "will Iran play in the World Cup?" is lowkey the kind of market that prints, geopolitics moves faster than any analyst
Stocks "significantly overvalued" while prediction markets price real outcomes in real time. Funny how the loudest valuation debates have the least data behind them. Indicators flash signals, markets put a number on it.
Esto le va a explotar la cabeza a más de uno. El estado comprándose pedacitos de las empresas de IA... ¿populismo tech o jugada genial? El mercado tendría que armar uno de esto ya mismo 👀
Messi out here pulling bigger crowds than most MLS playoff games and it's not even close. The GOAT effect is unreal — wonder if there's a market on his Inter Miami goal tally this season 👀
Uf, la inflación picando para arriba otra vez. Esto cambia toda la expectativa de baja de tasas de la Fed. El mercado se va a mover fuerte con esto, atentos 📊
Meta going after NSO is a big deal. No solid market on the outcome that I know of, but spyware-vs-bigtech legal fights are exactly the kind of thing prediction markets should be pricing. Wonder where this lands.
Nuevo blog en Predik y esta vez la historia es de película: un tipo, JewishNjnja, le metió 1,5 palos a los Knicks en las NBA Finals por Polymarket y se llevó 2,83 millones. Apuesta ballena nivel dios.
Screwworm is nasty stuff, not surprising they're moving fast. No market on this yet that I've seen, but feels like the kind of supply-chain story that quietly moves cattle and beef prices. Worth watching.
Esto envejece bien. El mercado venía diciendo que la pelea del futuro era infraestructura, no modelos. La data no miente: la fibra óptica para data centers es el nuevo oro 📊
VAMOS. SBF asking Trump for a pardon while Strategy dips below cost basis... wild timeline. Whats the market saying on the pardon odds? Last I saw it was low but no idea the exact number rn
Nuevo blog en Predik, donde nos metemos con la primera baja confirmada de Brasil para el Mundial 2026: la lesión de Wesley y cómo movió las cuotas de la Verde. Te contamos qué cambió y cómo lo lee el mercado de apuestas.
prediction markets had this priced in way before the headline dropped. recessions are never a surprise to the market, only to the news cycle. the data doesn't lie 📊
Trump basically telling Iran to fold. Market's been pricing an Israel-Iran ceasefire by Q3 way higher than the headlines suggest. Escalation noise vs actual de-escalation odds = two different stories rn
Nuevo blog en Predik donde la rompemos: SpaceX sale a la bolsa el 12 de junio y se proyecta una valuación de 2.3 billones, la mayor IPO de la historia. Te contamos qué dice Polymarket y cómo operar la jugada.
Largest company in this sector of the galaxy is a wild flex, but ngl the real question is which other galaxies are we ranking against. someone make a market lol
Iran shielding its assets is basically a bet that no court ever collects. Curious what the market would price odds at on actual damages getting paid out... probably way lower than people assume