Premicktions

Predictions of Scottish & English leagues, Ligue 1 & Bundesliga results using bivariate Poisson distribution. Free betting tips on twitter.

[Premicktions @premicktions]

Since the European Leagues are returning from their Winter break thought I would share some of the key results from the season so far.
This shows the % of correct predictions over 10% likelihood with the correct goals.
Ligue 1 achieved average of 75% correct
Bundesliga was 74%

[bjpenndotcom @bjpenndotcom]

It pays to know Jiu-Jitsu 🥋

[Premicktions @premicktions]

@ryanmckechnie @_haaaaayls Just the stuff that doesnt fit me anymore

[IbroxRoar @Wullie28239214]

@chris_sutton73 😂😂 a lot of people think Celtic will hammer rangers today I’ve no idea where they get 4-0 ect from over the last 6 month rangers have went to places like Dortmund Leipzig Eindhoven ect and done well there’s no reason rangers can’t compete across the city it won’t be a hammering

[Premicktions @premicktions]

This weekends #PremierLeague predicted results and each teams predicted xG!

[Premicktions @premicktions]

This weekends #cinchPrem predicted results and each teams predicted xG given their oppenents!

[Premicktions @premicktions]

This weekends #Bundesliga predicted results and each teams predicted xG for the game given their respective opponent!

[Premicktions @premicktions]

Bivariate model achieved 86% accuracy for the predictions made across the three leagues.

I have included what the True xG from each game for each team in #Bundesliga and #PremierLeague (From https://t.co/8yUHRGFd9S) for comparison to what was predicted by the model.

[Premicktions @premicktions]

This weekends #PremierLeague fixtures predicted outcomes, along with their % likelihood and the xG for each team!

[Premicktions @premicktions]

This weekends #cinchPrem fixtures and predicted outcomes for each game.
Have also included predicted xG for each team!

[Premicktions @premicktions]

This weekends #Bundesliga predicted results and each teams predicted xG for the game given their opponent!

(** means that this match-up has had +1 added to each teams xG as the function cannot take in negative values)

[Premicktions @premicktions]

SPFL predicted results for this weekends fixtures as well as predicted xG for each team!
Have also included Over/Under goals Likelihood for some of the games with a higher odds.
#cinchprem

[Premicktions @premicktions]

English Premiership predicted results for this weekends fixtures as well as the predicted xG for each team!
#PremierLeague

[Premicktions @premicktions]

Bundesliga predicted results for this weekends fixtures. Also included is the predicted xG for each team!
#Bundesliga
(** means that this fixture has had +1 to each teams xG as the function used for this cannot take in negative values)

[Premicktions @premicktions]

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 English Premier League likely outcomes with xG dependant on their opposition.

[Premicktions @premicktions]

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 SPFL likely results, xG is dependant on the opponents.
Have included goals and likelihoods for this one but model often over estimates number of goals!

[Premicktions @premicktions]

Bundesliga likely results!
Have included the xG for each team, this is calculated dependant on the team that they are against!
(*** means it is expected to be 1 less goal for each team, need to add 1 as distribution cannot have inputs which are -ve)

[Premicktions @premicktions]

#Bundesliga Full predictions for this weekends Bundesliga set of fixtures.

[Premicktions @premicktions]

#EPL Full predictions for this weekends Premier League fixtures.

[Premicktions @premicktions]

#SPFL Full predictions for this weekends action in the Scottish Premiership.

[Premicktions @premicktions]

Underperforming xGA away from home is #RBLeipzig with a drop of 1.33 xG per game. This makes their 5th place position a lot more reasonable given how poor they have been away from home.
Next is strangely #Monchengladbach with a drop in 0.74 xG and an increase of 0.35 in xGA.

[Premicktions @premicktions]

#Bundesliga xG results after 11 games.
Average goals per game is 3.02, this is higher than the #EPL and #SPFL, which have 2.77 and 2.67 goals per game respectively.
Also has 61% of games result in BTTS.

[Premicktions @premicktions]

…a drop in xGA of 0.13 making for incredible away form. However, in what could be good news for any upcoming Europa League ties. #Leverkusen have a much worse home form with a drop in xG for of 0.12 and an increase in xGA of 0.79 per game.