Let’s be completely objective.
$BTC below the quarterly open is bearish.
If the quarterly low holds, a move back to the quarterly open remains possible.
However, if the quarterly low is lost, the next area of interest is the CME gap around 54K, followed by the July 2024 low.
I think the most likely scenario is that BTC chops sideways for the next few months.
As much as I'd love to see $BTC V-shape recover, that's not something we've historically seen before.
In previous bear market cycles, the market has typically spent time consolidating and ranging before a true trend reversal takes hold.
So, pumps are likely shallow for now. Take that into consideration.
Since the start of the year, I've stuck to a simple plan.
Accumulate as much $BTC spot possible.
DCAing after a 50% drop is how you outperform everyone trying to perfectly time the bottom.
I'm not saying $BTC can't go lower.
We could very well hit 45-50K into August.
I'm simply stating that 1-2 years from now, people are going to wish they had bought more.
They'll wish they had acted sooner and spent less time hesitating.
At some point in life, you have to be bold.
He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life.
🚨LATEST: Zcash is DOWN -27% today after multiple reports allege Claude Opus 4.8 uncovered a critical ZEC bug.
Sources say white hats have patched the vulnerability, though the network offers no clear way to verify whether it was previously exploited.
Probably the most important $BTC analysis.
It doesn't take a genius to see that the drops are getting less aggressive with every cycle.
2015 retrace = 35.82% addresses in profit.
2019 retrace = 40.47% addresses in profit.
2022 retrace = 45.11% addresses in profit.
2026 retrace = 51.12% addresses in profit.
We are seeing a 5% increase each cycle. So do the math.
45.11% + 5% approx = exactly where BTC is now.
Hindsight is a b*tch when the weekly/monthly looks disgusting.
I Think We Go Lower. I'm Buying Anyway.
I have to ask myself whether I'm prepared to be front run while waiting for the perfect bottom.
The answer is no.
I will not be the fool who thinks he can nail everything.
Could $BTC drop another 31% from here?
Absolutely.
But a move to $160K from current prices is a 121% gain.
You'd have to be crazy to look at that RR on the HTF and say this isn't a good place to be buying.
Everyone is obsessed with calling the exact bottom.
I'd rather be positioned slightly early than try to time the perfect spot entry.
Conviction matters when you're trading.
This isn't a trade for me.
It's an investment.
Different objective. Different outcome.
As an investor, I am building my long term spot positions over the next 3-4 months.
When it comes to building leveraged longs, I'll be a lot more precise.
(i.e. waiting for daily and weekly structure to flip bullish, with timing aligning accordingly)
That time will come, but I don't think we're there yet.
The daily and weekly structure still remains bearish, so for now I'm happy accumulating spot and letting the market do what it wants.