whaley

AI, GSEs, Treasury, TBTF, Housing Finance hot takes.
Mean reversion is the most powerful force in the universe.
Personal account.

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@zephyr_z9 Nvidia doesn't seem to care about shareholders which is probably adds to the reasons the stock is stuck. Meager dividends and repurchase commitments despite enormous FCF. Signals $NVDA doesn't think the stock is undervalued and they need cash to sustain the business

[whaley @presvnconsv]

re IPO, "I think it's very strong Trump wants to do something else"

[familymang @familymang1]

Thank you @MariaBartiromo for asking @pulte about $fnma / $fmcc IPO odds:

“Maria: What are the odds of IPO happening this year?

Pulte: I think they’re very strong,
…
Mortgage bond buy helps IPO contrary to what people said.”

[whaley @presvnconsv]

"they punish the honest" @Stanford
https://t.co/Wh1QUFZzBY

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@Citrini7 @markflowchatter $WDC descibes it as a debt-for-equity swap of the 7.5 million $SNDK shares by 21 February

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@DarioAmodei All progress is adolescent by nature

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@dvdotz @Maytechummia and you probably wouldn't see Japanese airport security walking with their hands in their pockets, either

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@realKunalAShah The Fall of Singapore in 1942 is the enduring story of Britain

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@gc22gc China would sell us every f'ing chip they could produce, at reduced cost, and flood the market killing our chip manufacturing

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@sentdefender Was at Tokyo Narita Airport's Akihabara duty free shop on Saturday and there was no shortage of mainland Chinese tourists pushing, shoving, and loading their shopping carts to the max

[Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ @burrytracker]

New: Michael Burry discloses new pink sheet holding of Federal National Mortgage Association $FNMA

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@CliffordAsness have heard 'dumb money' used in many ways but the most common is - anyone who made more money than you with less effort

[whaley @presvnconsv]

WRT release: "we've got to clean up the capital structure"

[Jonathan Lynch @JonathanL16744]

Pulte on Fox $FNMA $FMCC

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@whiskeythinking @realKunalAShah there’s another category husbands whose wives have had multiple c-sections. i’ve run 45 ultramarathons

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@areawoman_ @realKunalAShah was in the military i think it has something to do with being in your 20s and around non-boring people

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@PirateWires @realKunalAShah @traestephens I admire Anduril, their origin story, and vision

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@TheF2Twins SPSPA warrant for 79.9% is on a fully diluted basis so include jr preferred conversion in calc of Treas shares and EPS. For instance, Fannie has 26 million shares convertible

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@timpagliara article implies if the GSEs need $200 billion to capitalize or $541 billion total to monetize the snr pref, dilute stock. This de-monetizes Treas warrants. 2x dilution cuts warrant proceeds in half. Minus risk-adjusted price bc the govt feels entitled to wipe you out anytime.

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@realKunalAShah think it’s a bimodal distribution on this one

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@Dot_E_Fresh @RetoPaul @HMWarships British hubris sunk the HMS Repulse along with Force Z and then Singapore itself. Repulse served well in 25 years in the Atlantic theatre but lasted a week in the Pacific. Leadership’s lack of respect for the lethality of the enemy

[whaley @presvnconsv]

@realKunalAShah If you go by the Trump letter of 3 years ago, he will “from the start” order release from conservatorship. He would also sell the warrant shares. Agree if fully diluted the pps may be around $20 if a pe of 7-9 w pref dividends removed from earnings