Thoughts on the Economy & Markets in Charts & Pics

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When Everyone Leaves the Gold Party, Contrarians Check In

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But whenever interest in an asset class is particularly low, contrarian investors’ interest rises. In fact, gold’s Power Index has also fallen to its lowest level since October 2023. October 2023—that rings a bell, doesn’t it? Oh yes, that’s right: that’s when the gold price began to rise at a significantly faster pace.

#Gold #Silver #preciousmetals

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S'thing for Contrarians: Open interest in Silver futures has now fallen to just under 120,000 contracts—the lowest level since 2009.

#gold #silver #preciousmetals

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S'thing for contrarians: Open interest shows how many futures contracts are open across all maturities. For gold, this figure has recently fallen to 455,000 contracts. We have now reached the lowest level since 2008.

#gold #silver #preciousmetals

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When Everyone Leaves the Gold Party, Contrarians Check In

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Pretiorates’ Thoughts – Bond Relief, Bullish Belief

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[Megatron @Megatron_ron]

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The war explained in 10 seconds

Venezuelan oil is extra-heavy (very low API gravity, around 8-10° or less), thick like tar/resin, with a high percentage of sulfur, metals and asphaltenes.

It does not flow easily, is difficult to transport by pipeline or ship without heating, and requires expensive refineries for processing. Without dilution, production and exports are limited.

Iran produces light oil (Iranian Light ~34-36° API) and gas condensate (very light and volatile).

This acts as a diluent: it reduces viscosity, increases API gravity and makes the mixture easier to transport and refine.

Typical ratio: 3:1 (3 barrels Venezuelan heavy + 1 barrel Iranian light/condensate) → produces Merey 16 or a similar blend (around 16° API), which is popular with Asian refineries (especially China).

This is what China used to do by importing both of them. Mixing.

This is what the US is now trying to do, huge profits.

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My name is Bond, Bear Bond

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My name is Bond, Bear Bond

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[Talant @talantfund]

I knew this was going to happen. That's why I sold at $120

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Wall Street Bulls Don’t Blink

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Pretiorates’ Thoughts – Wall Street Bulls Don’t Blink

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#S&P500 #StockMarket #Investing #PretioratesThoughts #wallstreet #FED #Trump #ai #investment #wallstreet #charts #economy #RiskManagement #MarketUpdate #quantum

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While fears of higher interest rates are likely to continue to somewhat dampen precious metals, a door is opening for silver that actually seemed to have closed again: The war in Iran is not only driving electrification but also boosting demand for non-fossil-fuel-powered vehicles. Demand for EVs literally exploded in several countries in March.

#silver #gold #ev #solar

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The high demand from China has been evident since the end of the year in the spread between the silver price in Shanghai and that in the West, which temporarily rose to over 20% at the start of the year. In April, however, since the original higher export tax rate has been reinstated, the spread remained well above 10%. This can certainly be viewed as a positive signal.

#silver #china

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Effective April 1, the Chinese government has restored the preferential export tax rate for solar manufacturers to its usual level. It therefore stands to reason that solar manufacturers brought forward their silver purchases to still benefit from the lower export taxes. Accordingly, it can be assumed that China’s silver imports will fall back to a more normal level in April.

#silver #china

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If higher oil prices were indeed to sustainably fuel inflation and thus lead to higher interest rates, this would also have to be reflected in inflation expectations in the swap market. But it isn’t. Looking five years ahead, there is no significant movement there that points to a higher inflation risk. The clear message from this side is: fears of higher interest rates in the gold market are exaggerated. We’ll know more tomorrow: The U.S. Federal Reserve will certainly comment on this—and that won’t leave the gold market unaffected.

#gold #inflation #swap

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Investors remain concerned that high oil prices could trigger new inflation and thus force higher interest rates. In fact, the six-month performance of the gold price has once again converged with the market yield on U.S. Treasuries. This confirms that gold is fundamentally fairly valued at current levels—and that potential upside scenarios are no longer really priced in at this time.

#gold

[Thoughts on the Economy & Markets in Charts & Pics @pretiorates]

Optimism on Wall Street has reached exceptionally high levels since the low at the end of March. Major corrections are not the usual scenario given such a positive mood, but the coming trading days could well turn into a rollercoaster ride due to corporate earnings. A new development in the Iran conflict would, of course, also have the potential to move the markets. Thanks to the currently robust sentiment, a negative turn is likely to be better absorbed; a positive development, on the other hand, could catapult the indices directly to the next level.

#wallstreet #spx #stocks

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Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple will report their first-quarter results later this week.

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The Strait, the Fed, and the Silver Thread

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