Pek Alpha Research

Equity Research | Reverse DCF | ERP & Risk Analysis
Finding Alpha in Mispriced Expectations
Not Investment Advice

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

5/5 $ZTS @ $120 Final Call:

✅ BUY - Accumulate full
✅ LOAD: $110-120 (backup truck)
✅ ALL-IN: < $100 (war priced)
⚠️ HOLD: > $150 (fair value)

Expected: $152
Current: $120 = +27% upside

Catastrophe priced, quality cheap 🎯
#Investing #Compounders

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

1/5 $ZTS @ $120 - Crisis or Opportunity?

📊 P/E 18x (vs 5Y avg 28x)
🐕 Implied growth 2.6% vs hist 8%
🤔 Market pricing catastrophe?

🐂 Companion trend, GLP-1 pets = $175
🐻 China collapse, Generic wave = $120

Deep dive 👇
#ZTS #Zoetis #AnimalHealth

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

4/5 $ZTS vs Peers @ Discount:

vs $ELAN: 18x vs 25x ✅
vs $IDXX: 18x vs 35x ✅
Margin: 33% vs 15% vs 25% ✅
Moat: Wide vs Narrow vs Wide ✅

Best risk/reward in group 🏆
Quality at crisis price 💎

#AnimalHealth #Value

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

3/5 $ZTS vs War 2026 🌍

China 15% rev: -75% risk? 🇨🇳
Vet clinics: Closure wave? 🏥
Recession: Pet cuts? 💸

Even war scenario FV: ~$100
Current: $120 = 17% buffer
Priced for apocalypse 🌋

#Geopolitics #Risk

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

2/5 $ZTS Numbers Don't Lie:

Revenue CAGR 10Y: 8.0% 📈
Op Margin: 33% (best-in-class)
FCF: $2B stable 🐾
Companion: 60% rev, +12% growth

But @ 18x P/E?
Market says growth dies 🪦
Reality? Unlikely 🎯

#Earnings #Pets

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

5/5 $PG @ $155 Final Call:

⚠️ HOLD - Fairly valued, no MOS
✅ BUY: $140-145 (6% off)
✅ LOAD: $130-135 (war priced)
❌ SELL: >$170 (take profit)

Expected: $152
Current: $155 = -2%

Wait for quality at discount 🎯
#Investing #Patience

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

1/5 $PG @ $155 - Quality at Fair Price?

📊 P/E 24x (vs 5Y avg 21x)
🧴 Implied growth 3.8% vs hist 3%
🤔 War risk priced in yet?

🐂 Pricing power, EM recovery = $185
🐻 Prolonged war, China collapse = $120

Deep dive 👇
#PG #ProcterGamble #ConsumerStaples

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

4/5 $PG vs Defensive Peers:

vs $KO: Yield 2.4% vs 2.9% ❌
vs $WMT: EM 45% vs 25% ❌
vs $UL: Margin 23% vs 18% ✅

War resilience: Medium only
Quality? Yes. Safety? Maybe not 🛡️

#KO #WMT #Defensive

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

3/5 $PG vs War Risk 🌍

Input cost: Oil +50% = Margin -2% 📉
EM currency: USD +10% = Revenue -5%
China: SK-II 15% rev = Risk 🔴
Private label: Trading down threat ⚠️

Prolonged war FV: ~$115 (-25%)
Not fully priced @ $155 🎲

#Geopolitics #Risk

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

2/5 $PG Numbers That Matter:

Revenue CAGR 10Y: 3.0% 📈
Op Margin: 23% (peak 25%)
FCF: $15B stable 👑
Dividend: 68Y King

But @ 24x P/E?
Fair value ~$152 = -2% downside
Margin of safety? Thin 🤏

#Earnings #Dividend

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

5/5 $KO @ $77 Final Call:

❌ AVOID new positions
⚠️ HOLD → Trim if >$80
✅ BUY: $68-72 (start)
✅ LOAD: $62-66 (full)
🎯 $55-58 (back up truck)

Fair value: ~$68
Current: $77 = +13% overvalued

Wait for quality at fair price 🎯
#Investing #Patience

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

1/5 $KO @ $77 - Quality or Trap?

📊 P/E 24x (vs 5Y avg 21x)
🥤 Implied growth 4.8% vs hist 2-3%
🤔 Market pricing perfection?

🐂 EM boom, pricing power = $95
🐻 GLP-1, compression = $52

Deep dive 👇
#KO #CocaCola #Valuation

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

4/5 $KO Risk Check 🚨

🚫 GLP-1 drugs: -10% volume risk?
🚫 Valuation: P/E 18x = $58 (-25%)
🚫 Input cost: War → Oil/Aluminum ⬆️
🚫 Interest: High rate = P/E compress

Defensive? Yes.
At wrong price? Also yes ⚠️

#RiskFirst #Dividend

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

3/5 $KO vs $PEP Reality:

P/E: 24x vs 22x ❌
Yield: 2.9% vs 3.2% ❌
Growth: 2% vs 5% ❌
Diversification: Bev vs Snack+Bev ❌

Why pay more for less?
Buffett holds but ain't buying more 🐘

#PEP #ConsumerStaples

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

2/5 $KO Numbers Don't Lie:

Revenue CAGR 10Y: 2.1% 📉
Op Margin: 26% (peak ~28%)
FCF: $8.3B stable
Dividend: 62Y King 👑

But @ 24x P/E?
Growth stock multiple for slow grower 🤨

Priced for 5% growth = 100bps premium
#Earnings #Finance

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

5/5 $FDX @ $359 Final Call:

❌ ไม่ซื้อใหม่ - Priced for perfection
⚠️ ถืออยู่ ➡️ Take profit 50%, Stop $320
✅ รอซื้อ: $280-300 (Zone 1)
✅ ซื้อเต็ม: $230-250 (Zone 2)

Expected Value: ~$297
Current: $359 ➡️ Overvalued ~20%

Patience pays 🎯
#Investing #Valuation #FDX

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

1/5 $FDX @ $359 - Turnaround or Trap?

📊 Market Cap $86B (P/E 21x)
✂️ DRIVE: $4B savings, One FedEx
🤔 Question: Execution or Hope?

🐂 Margin 8%, Volume rebound = $420
🐻 DRIVE fails, Recession = $190

Deep dive 👇
#FDX #FedEx #Restructuring

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

4/5 $FDX What Could Go Wrong?

🚫 DRIVE delays, Cost overrun
🚫 Amazon กิน Market share
🚫 Recession = Volume ดิ่ง 20%+
🚫 Fuel spike = Express margin พัง
🚫 Labor shortage = Service quality ↓

Downside Protection? ไม่มี ⚠️
Stop loss $320 หรือ รอ $250?
#RiskFirst #FedEx

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

3/5 $FDX vs $UPS Reality Check:

Margin: 5% vs 11% ❌
ROIC: 12% vs 20% ❌
FCF: -$0.3B vs +$5B ❌
Dividend: 1.5% vs 3.5% ❌

แต่ P/E 21x vs 20x 🤨

ตลาด Bet FDX leverage สูงกว่า
ถ้า Turnaround = Explosive upside 🚀
ถ้า Fail = ดิ่งหนัก 💥
#UPS #FDX #Logistics

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

2/5 $FDX 12Q Financials:

Revenue: $21-24B range ➡️ Stagnant
Operating Margin: 6.5% ➡️ 4.5% ➡️ 5.4%
FCF: Negative 3 ปีซ้อน ❌
Debt/Equity: 0.82 ➡️ 0.95 ⚠️

DRIVE เริ่มเห็นผล Q4?
Cost cut > Growth? 📉
#FedEx #Earnings #Finance