a million years ago i ended up at a halloween party at his apartment where he had a giant print of nixon’s resignation letter as wall decor… incredibly chic and i have thought about it so often since then
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@GreenDotCap1tal On non resi anything pos / neg you see in the data? Dodge momentum index suggests spend improving but rate environment tough
Intl & owners are other upside levers to growth imo besides ai
On margin s&m still fat but less sure what they can do besides a rif- more indirect channel?
@GreenDotCap1tal What do u think of it here
Post eps w margin guide was trading mid20s 2028 gaap fcf for midteens grower on still unoptimized margins and no credit for ai accel. Now at high20s gaap fcf mult. Main upside is if growth accels as they roll out ai assistants to sales team this yr?
@cmo040958@riddle245@RAMCOCAPITAL What do you think market is missing on margins? Consensus seems to give credit for Analytics achieving high30s margins and MIS remaining in mid60s margins in next few years. To me, expectations are full between margins and valuation but I may be missing something
Activity in defense m&a heating up
Albion River at 11% ownership of chemring
Advent 7% stake in avio
Thales & safran bidding war for Exail
Lockheed buying ultra maritime from advent
Throughlines are capabilities in missiles and subsea defense
any idea why acva’s rerated higher so much
granted it was very cheap at the lows (1x rev, 12x fcf) and now it’s… still sorta cheap (16x fcf)
competition from open lane more of a concern tho w opln us d2d units outpacing acv unit growth?
@malinvested@Twasluck1 Apartments has competitive risk from Zillow multifamily rentals. Growth still decent but might be over earning on margins
Im sympathetic to costar but the apathy towards mult going lower and lower on ex-resi losses makes it hard to see what the solution is. Andy giving up? When
Trepp just sold to Fitch Ratings by DMGT for $1b... but of course Andy Florance would rather keep blowing $ on https://t.co/zjWjltf74q instead of acquiring an asset that'd actually be synergistic with the Suite
Trepp acquired for a rich multiple though. $70mm of rev in FY20, +MSD % grower so $100mm by FY26. Wouldn't be surprised if growth has been slower in past few years as a result of CRE industry's travails. Acquired for 10x revenue or 25x-30x EBITDA? Seems high given the growth rate
another newer 13f is dream peak
founded by ex d1 in 2024
13f already at 700m aum, based in hk so investing in apac as well as us and therefore bigger than what 13f shows?
big launch then in a short timeframe?
Going through backlog of fund letters & 13fs- thread of observations
idiosyncratic new names
Madison ave coupang
Gumshoe JBI
Telefex- gumshoe, irenic, newtyn, soapstone, abi
Abi Bfam
iclr brave warrior (1st new buy in a yr), madison ave, activists (sachem, impactive)
interesting newer 13f i hadnt heard of before: congruence (smid industrials, ex-centerline / platinum equity's public fund)
not bad time to be industrials focused fund
surprised there arent more
only other one i can think of is maren which seems to have scaled well