primarymodel

Official Twitter of Helmut Norpoth - Stony Brook Professor - Election Forecaster

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

Michigan coach Dusty May spent millions of dollars to overhaul the Wolverines’ roster in a single offseason. The investment paid off with a first title in 37 years. https://t.co/o5RukskN1C via @WSJ

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

The Primary Model gives Kamala Harris a 75% chance to defeat Donald Trump, with 315 electoral votes for her and 223 for Trump. Granted Harris did not contest any primary, but Biden's primary performance along with his endorsement of her augur well for her success in November.

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

The Primary Model gives Joe Biden a 75% chance to defeat Donald Trump in November. This forecast is based on their performance in the early primaries (New Hampshire & South Carolina). Biden is predicted to win 315 electoral votes, Trump 223.

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

President Biden’s low approval (hovering at 43 percent throughout October) predicts 246 seats for the Republicans in the House. This forecast is based on the effect of presidential approval on seats won by his party in House midterm elections from 1938 to 2018.

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

Mail ballots and drop boxes all but flipped Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to Biden and helped flip Michigan in the 2020 election. This comes from a 50 (+1) state analysis of the 2016-2020 Democratic vote swing due to mail ballots and drop boxes. https://t.co/PbTjJn80v4

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

Disapproval of President Biden gives Republicans a 99-percent chance to win control of the House of Representatives in the midterm election this fall. This forecast is based on the effect of presidential approval on seats won by his party in House midterm elections 1946-2018.

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

Biden’s approval ratings are dismal, we argue, because of progressive disenchantment with his failure to deliver on his election promises and a lack of support from those who in 2020 voted against Trump rather than for him.
https://t.co/FQ6AK0cLtc

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

All this polarization a drama before an empty auditorium.

[Michael Lewis-Beck @mlewisbeck]

A must read!

[Michael Lewis-Beck @mlewisbeck]

A must read!

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

It was a perfect storm. A once-in-a-century combination of election-year surprises. A plague and a flood doomed Trump and the forecast, barring a last-minute invalidation of tens of thousands of mail-in ballots in some battleground states. https://t.co/PbTjJn80v4

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

For all of you who have been wondering whether I have updated or will be updating my forecast, the answer is an unequivocal NO. And I stand by it, no matter what the polls and poll aggregators say. The Primary Model gives Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning re-election.

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

Military service in World War II produced a generation of Democrats, my analysis of Gallup polls (1945–1953) shows. GI Joe is an unsung hero of what is widely known as the New Deal realignment. Check out my article in PS. https://t.co/HzFWQlw9rN.

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

Joe Biden lead in polls does not ensure final victory for election https://t.co/dcMIlMNe7R

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

The COVID-19 shutdown will cost Americans millions of years of life https://t.co/gKTEHgEEfA

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

Will economic recession cost President Trump the election? https://t.co/dce0YTLaXD

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

Trump not a bad bet to win reelection https://t.co/ApstR2YC2M via @Newsday

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

@megtbrenan Congrats on working at Gallup. With by-line. Great piece on Trump/Clinton pre-post-impeachment.

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

The Primary Model gives Trump a 91% chance of winning a possible match-up with Biden in November, based on primary performance so far (New Hampshire & South Carolina), plus the first-term electoral benefit. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.

[primarymodel @primarymodel16]

The Primary Model gives Trump a 95% chance of winning a possible match-up with Sanders in November, based on primary performance so far (New Hampshire & South Carolina), plus the first-term electoral benefit. Trump would get 390 electoral votes, Sanders 148.