PrimeView

Cabinet indépendant de recherche économique et financière. Publications, conférences, activité de formation professionnelle en économie appliquée à l'entreprise

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

While looking at that chart, I asked myself: "How long has Japan spent in recession since 1990?" 132 months... 32,3% of the 408 months between 1990 and 2024...

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

Chinese borrowers default in record numbers as economic crisis deepens
"A total of 8.54mn people, most of them between the ages of 18 and 59, are officially blacklisted by authorities after missing payments on everything [...]" https://t.co/63sD6oHv8M via @ft

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

The proportion of wages used to pay interest in the U.S. (excluding mortgages) has soared!

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

On a YoY basis, the real GDI for the #US is flat in 2023 and even turned negative for Q3 (-0.16%). In 2008, the GDI became negative way before the GDP did.

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

Manually creating a domino effect.

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

The ECB is considering reducing its bond purchases linked to the 1700 billion Covid stimulus earlier than planned, even though this mechanism is due to end at the end of 2024. https://t.co/4aykaBTs1r

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

#Bankrupcies (all chapters) in the US are rising again, after around 10 years of decrease then stagnation. Even if the total number is still small compared to pike.

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

US business #bankruptcies are rising sharply in 2022 and 2023. Even is the real numbers are still low, the growth rate is quite important.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Looks like it will be one of the most crowded trades to come. 61% of Fund Managers from BofA Fund Manager survey expect lower bond yields, most on record, despite 2nd highest ever saying fiscal policy too stimulative.

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

Probably nothing alarming for the #us economy.

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

US Capacity utilization at 80% when the industrial production is at 0% yoy is a situation never encountered before.

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

The response to the Covid crisis in the #us compared to the #eurozone one is so different.

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

The money supply in the #eurozone is decreasing (YoY). First time in 30 years. But after such anormal monetary policy and money injection, isn't it "ok"?

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

Increase of the labor cost at the same time of a decrease in productivity per person in the #eurozone. 3 times over 4 it has been a sign of #recession during the last 20 years.

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

When will we get this recession period band for the #eurozone?

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

#China went back into deflation territory in October thanks to the sharp decline in food prices. (CPI -0.2% vs. CPI Core +0.6%). PPI are also down -2.6% YoY.

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

Good morning,
Credit cards loans going to delinquency are rising in the #US.

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

Using FactSet estimates, it's 42.8% of the S&P500's companies that have Sales > estimates for the 408 companies that have published their results.

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

The median sales price of new house in the #US is going down on a yearly basis. -12.3% YoY in September, a level hardly seen in the past.

[Raphaël Becanne @rbecanne]

Good morning,
China's manufacturing purchasing managers index entered in contraction zone (49.5 in October). Once again.