primos bets

Tennis (ATP 250 and Above)
MMA
NBA

Data-driven, not guarantees
Research, stats & market analysis.

[primos bets @primosLocks]

Twitter Picks:

August 26th: +1.21 Units
August 27th: +0.54 Units
August 28th: +4.15 Units
August 29th: +0.9 Units
August 31st: +6.44 Units
September 1st: +2.4 Units
September 2nd: -2.44 Units
September 4th: +2.34 Units
September 5th: +2.78 Units
September 9th: +3.5 Units
September 10th: +10.23 Units

Dont fade me.

[primos bets @primosLocks]

Full Card Today

(5U) 🇰🇿 Elena Rybakina Most Aces + 🇺🇸 Brock Purdy 3+ Rush Attempts @ (-116)

(4U) 🇰🇬 Razhabali Shaydullaev + 🇯🇵 Mikuru Asakura @ (-120) (Cashed)✅

(3U) 🇺🇸 Brock Purdy Over 3.5 Rush Attempts @ (-140)

(2U) 🇰🇿 Elena Rybakina ML @ (-108)

(2U) 🇷🇺 Aryna Sabalenka / 🇺🇸 Jessica Pegula over 6.5 Breaks @ (-125)

(2U) 🇷🇺 Aryna Sabalenka Most Aces + 🇺🇸Mike Evans 3 Receptions @ (-125)

(1U) 🇺🇸 Myles Garrett 1+ Sack @ (-130)

[primos bets @primosLocks]

(2U) Bu Yunchaokete ML @ (-140)

This is the matchup I love the most, because Bu's biggest strength runs straight into Van Assche's biggest weakness. Bu is an all-out aggressor whose favourite shot is the forehand. He attacks second serves, punishing them with relentless firepower and aggressive returns. Now look at Van Assche's second serve. He wins just 48% of those points this year, averages 4.6 double faults a match, and saves only 57-58% of the break points he faces. Bu is going to tee off on every second ball.
Form backs it up too. Bu beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo in Beijing, and took Djokovic to three sets. He also knocked Jodar out of the US Open as a lucky loser without facing a single break point. Van Assche, meanwhile, got handled by Fils 6-3, 6-2 in Tokyo a week ago.
Here's the honest risk. Van Assche is an elite returner who wins 42% of return points this year, so he WILL steal some breaks. But Bu is playing at home on a night session, and his game has the higher ceiling. Van Assche's serve just can't survive Bu's return.

[primos bets @primosLocks]

@MoneyManqm1 He play for us tn🫡

[primos bets @primosLocks]

One more play for tonight:

(1U) Camilo Ugo Carabelli ML (+190)

Experience will trump this prospect. I gotta take a chance at a +190 against a dude with only four ATP matches in the past year

[primos bets @primosLocks]

@tennisfungynn 💀

[primos bets @primosLocks]

(2U) Martin Landaluce ML @ (-118)

Struff is 36 years old and his hard court numbers this year are UGLY. His hard court Elo sits way below Landaluce's, and he's 11-15 on the season. Yeah, Struff beat Landaluce in Mallorca back in June, but that was on GRASS, where Struff's big serve does all the work and it still went three sets. On hard courts the rallies get longer and that's where the 20 year old takes over. Landaluce moves better, returns better, and wins more return points this season. Struff's game is serve, pray, and repeat. When his first serve dips, which it will at 36, he has nothing to fall back on. My has Landaluce at 60%, the line has him around -118, and I'm happy to back the guy with fresh legs over a guy whose body is on the back nine.

[primos bets @primosLocks]

ATP SHANGHAI BEST PLAY:

(2U) James Duckworth / Hubert Hurkacz over 22.5 Games @ (-150)

Good servers = lots of games. Hurkacz's serve is top notch. He averages 15.8 aces a match and wins 80% of his first-serve points, and serving doesn't need healthy legs. Not to mention Duckworths serve is pretty quality on its own. So I believe the sets will go to tiebreaks. Tiebreaks are coin flips, and we only need one paired with a break on the second set, or even better, a chance at Duckworth stealing a set.

[primos bets @primosLocks]

SHANGHAI PLAY:
(1U) Zizou Bergs -3.5 Points Spread @ (-150)

This is a STYLE MISMATCH and the stats back it up. Zizou Bergs plays first-strike tennis. His game is aggressive and built on taking the initiative, with a serve that keeps getting better every year. This season he averages about 7-8 aces a match and wins 71-73% of his first-serve points. His second serve has also become a weapon. Kopriva is the opposite. He's a clay court grinder who needs long rallies to survive, and on hard courts he can't find them. He's lost five of his last six. Halys, Lehecka and Shapovalov all beat him in straight sets, Etcheverry swept him in three, and Molcan knocked him out of Beijing qualifying. So picture how this goes. Bergs holds with free points on serve, Kopriva can't extend rallies on a fast court, and that adds up to short sets. Bergs also saves 62-64% of the break points he faces, so even when Kopriva gets a look, Bergs usually slams the door.

[primos bets @primosLocks]

I watch tennis, MMA, basketball and NFL very intensively and pick up teams/players styles and patterns through daily watch. Analyzing film and knowledge of the sport is something stats cant pick up. I greatly believe the eye test and YOUR own knowledge of of sports and lines is the greatest factor in consistent betting.
Stats should be used as a major tool for your research, but it shouldnt be the sole reason to bet something.

[primos bets @primosLocks]

Icing on the cake was the Altmaier point to crush Rune bettors…..

[primos bets @primosLocks]

@sheeshgawdam Yep layoffs included

[primos bets @primosLocks]

Been working on fine tuning my model and he/she says Daniel Altmaier doesnt have a chance at beating Holger Rune 😂 Lets see how this holds up

[primos bets @primosLocks]

@JustLingonberry im in

[primos bets @primosLocks]

@catboyautist @therajmahal_1 @AlexMonahaqyrt How much of your winnings is intuition vs stats or speed?

[primos bets @primosLocks]

@AlexMonahaqyrt From EV bets or speed?

[primos bets @primosLocks]

(2U) Arthur Fery ML @ (-160)

I get the Cilic love. Former US Open champ, massive serve, 21 titles. But that was a different Marin Cilic. The one showing up in Shanghai is 38 years old and coming off a HAMSTRING INJURY that's kept him off tour since Cincinnati in August. He's won ONE match since early August. He's 1-5 in his last six matches at Shanghai and 9-12 here lifetime. This tournament has never been kind to him. Meanwhile people keep saying Fery is just a grass guy because of Wimbledon. Wrong. After Wimbledon he went to Winston-Salem and made the FINAL on hard courts. Yeah, he lost his opener in Tokyo, but it went three sets against Jaime Faria, who's been playing great tennis. Fery landed 73% of his first serves in that match. That's a guy who's dialed in on serve, not a guy in a slump.

Fery is quick, returns well, and makes you play an extra ball every rally. That's exactly what a rusty 38 year old coming off a bad hamstring does NOT want. Cilic needs short points and free aces. The second Fery starts getting returns back and making him move side to side, that hamstring gets tested. If Cilic doesnt win the first set, I dont see him having the legs to come back. This should be like -300

My pick: Fery ML (-168)

[primos bets @primosLocks]

(2U) Holger Rune -2.5 Games Spread @ (-165)

Everybody saw Holger Rune get smoked by Jacquet in Tokyo and decided he's cooked. Relax. That was his FIRST ATP match in 11 months after a torn Achilles, and he told everyone right after that his body felt fine and he just froze. Dont forget, two weeks before Tokyo this guy went to Davis Cup and beat Grigor Dimitrov in a third set tiebreak. The tennis is still in there. He just needed to shake the rust off, and now he's got a full week of practice in Asia under his belt.

Daniel Altmaier is in the WORST form of anyone in this draw. He's lost four straight matches. His last one was in Beijing QUALIFYING, where he got bodied 6-4, 6-1 by a guy ranked 458th in the world. He's 3-11 on hard courts this year. Altmaier is a clay court grinder who likes long rallies and heavy topspin, and fast Shanghai courts take all of that away from him. The head to head isn't close either. Rune is 2-0, including a 6-3, 6-3 beatdown at the Paris Masters on a quick indoor hard court. That's the exact kind of surface where Rune's first strike tennis eats Altmaier alive.

My pick: Rune -2.5 Games Spread @ (-165)

[primos bets @primosLocks]

Ariano selling at a -600 smh

[primos bets @primosLocks]

#DWCS Best Parlay:
🔒 Neil Ariano by KO/TKO + Mateus Soares/Ryuho Miyaguchi not to go the Distance @ (-160)

We all know Ariano is going to win, and im pretty confident in a knockout. 6'4" Frenchman won a European amateur title in 2022 before moving into the Cage Warriors system. All six of his professional wins have come there. His background in judo gives him a strong foundation, while his size allows him to operate comfortably in both the striking and grappling phases.

Soares has finished 10 of his 11 wins, nine by knockout, and three of his recent wins came in the first round. Miyaguchi has three first-round TKOs in his last five fights, and his only loss was a submission. Either Miyaguchi snipes Soares with his long frame, or he gets finished in the first.

Confidence: 8/10

[primos bets @primosLocks]

MLB Playoffs Best Bet:
🔒Los Angeles Dodgers ML @ (+100)

You almost never see the Dodgers sitting at a pick'em with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound. That's the entire bet. You're getting them at even money or close to it because Atlanta stole Game 2 and the public got spooked.

[primos bets @primosLocks]

@Burglar250 naw u lucky. Striking spread didnt cash idk how. Strikes were basically tied going into the fifth and Wang put so much pressure but somehow got outstruck. 79.5 cash tho

[primos bets @primosLocks]

(5U) Wang Cong +9.5 Significant Strikes Spread @ (-110)

(3U) Wang Cong Most Significant Strikes @ (+120)

WTF is this line??? Wang Cong should outstrike her even without the spread. Natalia Silva wins on movement and clean, economical shots, not volume. Wang puts the pressure on and has destroyed this line ever fight shes had. Wang lands 6.82 significant strikes per minute, about 42% more than Silva's 4.81, and her 58% accuracy is the highest in the division. Even after adjusting each fighter's output for her opponent's defense, Wang projects to land roughly 4.4 strikes per minute to Silva's 3.6. Over a fight expected to run about 20 minutes, that's a projected margin of around +16 for Wang, before the +9.5 cushion. Silva has no grappling threat here too for stuff like ground and pound. Remember she doesnt need to win this fight for this line to cash