PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦

Markets, macroeconomics, and trading.

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

To think we almost got fucked over by the ANC and signed long term agreements with Karpower

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

A single ship anchored off Ghana's coast generates about 12% of the country's electricity.

The MV Karadeniz Powership Osman Khan is 299 meters long and pumps out up to 480 MW of power.

It has been doing this since 2017.

[Share_Trader @KoosKanmar]

Once the internet absorbed most known human knowledge, it was always just going to be question of time before someone found a way to harvest it and sell it back to them. #AI

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

@jukan05 China will win the technological race eventually.... Americans just don't want to admit it

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

The bond market ominous warning markets are too euphoric to pay attention to

[fejau @fejau_inc]

Unfathomably bad takes around this this morning and a good reminder of why 13F digging is mostly a waste of time.

- March 31st we were in the heat of the Iran war, makes sense to put on hedges at the time.
- Options exposure on 13F’s get quoted notionally, so as if it were 100 delta i.e all 100 shares per contract.
- We have no way of knowing whether these were 5 delta convexity hedges and represented a fraction of what people are saying were billions in puts or whether they were ITM puts.
- Further, outright shorts don’t get reported either.

Too much noise associated with things that happened back in March that aren’t relevant now, we have no idea about his turnover in assets of trade frequency.

A lot happened in the months of April and May, his positioning could be completely different. Making investment decisions for 80 vol assets based on data from months ago sounds like a good way to burn money.

So don’t idolize people and develop
Your own thesis for why you sell and own things.

[Jukan @jukan05]

KYE-HYUN KYUNG, ADVISOR TO SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS: MEMORY PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE STARTING IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT YEAR.

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

The 13Fs I have seen so far this quarter are, with maybe four exceptions, the most embarrassing display of professional herding I have witnessed in a decade. Every “widely followed” fund owns the same nine names. The differentiation between them, when you actually lay the holdings out side by side, is statistical noise dressed up as conviction. These are people charging 2 and 20, and 1.5 and 15, and a flat 1% on $4 billion accounts, to deliver portfolios that a Vanguard index fund could replicate at 4 basis points, except with worse turnover, higher tax drag, and a manager letter every quarter explaining why owning the same seven mega-cap names everyone else owns is, in fact, a contrarian act of independent thought.

There is no work in these portfolios. There is no original research. There is no name on any of these 13Fs that required the manager to fly somewhere, sit in a lobby, eat a cookie, call a CEO at a number listed in a proxy statement from 2011, or do anything that any well-read 19-year-old with a Bloomberg login could not have done in an afternoon. The entire industry has, in the last decade, quietly stopped doing the work, because the work is hard, the work is lonely, the work makes you look stupid for 18 months at a time, and the work, when it produces a name nobody else owns, is the single greatest career risk in modern asset management. Nobody gets fired for owning Microsoft. Everyone gets fired for owning a $90 million market cap Pennsylvania bank that the LP committee has never heard of, even when the bank doubles, because by then the LP has already pulled the capital and the manager is already at a different firm doing the same thing he was doing before, which is owning Microsoft.

You can do the work. You can own the small cap they will not. You can build a portfolio that does not look like anyone else’s. You will not be on Bloomberg. You will not be invited to speak at the conference. You will, however, in some ten-year window that you will not be able to predict in advance, outperform every one of these herded portfolios by margins that will, in retrospect, look obvious to everyone except the people who were doing the herding, who will, as they always do, explain that they were right in spirit and just wrong in price, which is, as it has always been, the entire reason the trade on the other side keeps working.

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

Why the fuck is FinTwit getting all excited about 13F filings from Q1???? These are OLD trades

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

@TheLongInvest No, its not. But what is worse are FinTwit Influencers claiming this was going to happen and they were all in at the lows

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

@MartyChargin

[J.C. Parets @JC_ParetsX]

Hey I have an idea. Let’s make a huge deal about these 13Fs and pretend they’re not all already over 45 days old.

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

@Merridew__ Way way way way more

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

@FeroceResearch

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

@ThierryBorgeat Am on your side.... but no-one seems to want to accept this. Demand is likely to remain ok, but not at these prices. The last earnings presentation from Micron showed revenue is coming from pricing and not sales volume

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

@dampedspring You forgot to add "nothing stops this train"

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

@richytee If you are in the Discovery universe, Discovery Bank is a complete no-brainer, even if you only have the Credit Card like me. Investec will remain my bank, though.

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

@ThetaWarrior Share the details of the massive multi million dollar options trades as well.

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

@firstadopter Sales volumes or Sales revenue? No memory company has recorded that growth level in Sales volumes, as per their last financial reports

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

Why do we only ever hear from Americans on AI blah blah blah.... odd

[Big Brain AI @realBigBrainAI]

Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google: "The AI revolution is underhyped. None of us is prepared for the implications of this."

He opens with a warning:

"The arrival of this new intelligence will profoundly change our country and the world in ways we cannot fully understand."

He explains what's happening right now in the industry:

"We're very very quickly developing AI programmers. And these AI programmers will replace traditional software programmers. We're building in the next year AI mathematicians that are as good as the top level graduate students in math. This is happening very quickly."

Schmidt argues most people fundamentally misunderstand what AI has become:

"Today you think of AI as ChatGPT, but what it really is is a reasoning and planning system that we've never seen before."

The implications, he warns, extend far beyond software.

These new systems demand resources at an industrial scale we've never encountered.

"They're going to need a lot more computation than we've ever had. They're going to need a lot more energy."

To illustrate the scale of the energy crisis ahead, Schmidt offers a sobering comparison:

"People are planning 10 gigawatt data centers. Now just to do the translation, an average nuclear power plant in the United States is 1 gigawatt. How many nuclear power plants can we make in one year where we're planning this 10 gigawatt data center? Gives you a sense of how big this crisis is."

@ericschmidt shares an estimate he finds most likely:

"Data centers will require an additional 29 gigawatts of power by 2027 and 67 more gigawatts by 2030. These things are industrial at a scale I have never seen in my life."

Schmidt says the industry needs high skills immigration, light touch regulation around cyber and bio threats, and most critically, energy in all forms.

He's personally investing in fusion, but acknowledges it won't arrive in time.

He closes with the stakes:

"When you build these systems, you have intelligence in the computer and then eventually human level intelligence. Some people think it's within 3 to four years. Then after that, you have something called super intelligence, the intelligence that's higher than of humans. We believe as an industry that this could occur within a decade. It is crucial that America get there first."

[PringleTrade FX 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 @PringleTrade]

Am done with FinTwit.... 🤣🤣🤣 I don't think a market crash gives a fuck about a Moving Average