If you’re counting on the S&P 500 to deliver 8%+ annual returns over the next decade, history says: don’t hold your breath.
Three powerful valuation signals — Buffett’s market cap-to-GDP ratio, equity allocation levels, and the excess CAPE yield are flashing red. Each one points to forward returns in the 1–3% range, before inflation.
It’s not a doomsday call. It’s just what happens when sentiment runs high and valuations stretch this far.
But there’s one corner of the market built for environments like this: high-quality high-yield bonds, also known as “fallen angels.”
They’ve historically outperformed during lost decades, quietly delivering 7–10% returns while stocks floundered.
A new ETF from Infrastructure Capital Advisors (BNDS) offers exposure to these bonds, with a current 8.5% yield and upside from discounted prices.
If equity returns stall out, income like this could be the difference between treading water, and getting ahead.
@kirillzzy I think you may have misconstrued this statement by USCIS. It sounds like they simply need more evidence to show outstanding achievements are required to get into YC. Perhaps a statement from the director of YC highlighting said requirement would suffice here.