Benjamin Cowen | Personal

Private Ben Twitter, Tweets are opinions. They are not investment advice. Public: @intocryptoverse

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

NFA Live w/ @coinbureau and @NewsAsset
https://t.co/f2GlvlF0Rp

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

It always feels different, but #BTC is still tracking the last 2 market cycles

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Initial Claims

Actual: 213k
Estimated: 220k
Prior: 217k

As I have said, no real concern about claims until they start printing 300k+

[Tesla @Tesla]

FSD Supervised sees more than you

And never gets tired or distracted

[Leader John Thune @LeaderJohnThune]

Republicans have a mandate from the American people to clean up the mess left by the Biden-Harris-Schumer agenda and to deliver on President Trump’s priorities — our work starts today.

[SpaceX @SpaceX]

Starship’s fifth flight test was a seminal moment in iterating towards a fully and rapidly reusable launch system.

Next up: the sixth flight test of Starship is targeted to launch as early as Monday, November 18 → https://t.co/oIFc3u9laE

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Congratulations Tesla Powerwall team!

These will make a big difference around the world. With a Powerwall, your home or business has guaranteed continuous power during utility blackouts or brownouts.

Add solar to your roof and/or nearby ground and you can operate off grid.

Add Starlink and you can operate your home with no wires at all!

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Imagine people thinking they missed out on #ALT season when OTHERS/BTC just put in a new cycle low, the lowest it has been since 2021.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

BTC now at $84k 🔥

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

With BTC still moving, it is worthwhile to pay attention to what happened last cycle around this time. You can see that #ALT / #BTC pairs were rejected from the bull market support band in November 2020, before bottoming a month later.

The reason they were rejected is because BTC stole the spotlight again, and when BTC moves, the rest of the market will often sit back and watch. That does not mean ALTs don't go up, it just means some of them may have a hard time keeping up with BTC until BTC cools off.

Still think with #BTC dominance at 60%, diversifying can make sense as not all ALTs have to bottom at the same time against BTC

But there is a chance that ALT/BTC pairs drop into Dec 2024, just like they did in 2016 and 2020.

If you are new please remember there is a difference between ALT/BTC and ALT/USD pairs. ALT/BTC pairs going down does not mean ALT/USD pairs have to go down.

If you think about your portfolio in Satoshis rather than US dollars, then the cryptoverse starts to make a lot more sense.

If #ALT / #BTC pairs get a weekly close above their bull market support band, then perhaps the path can deviate from last cycle, but until that happens, this case is at least a consideration.

My base case is that #ALT / #BTC pairs durably go up in 2025.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Now at $83k #BTC 🔥

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

I mentioned that #DXY should go up following the Fed 1st rate cut. I also said to expect a correction by DXY going into the election, but that it should rally again starting the 2nd week of November. So far, so good.

Base case is that DXY rallies into EOY and then drops in 2025.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

#BTC cycle ROI as measured peak-to-peak

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

The people hating on @CredibleCrypto are completely off base. I think he has been mostly right for the last few years.

We all get things wrong from time to time. Reasonable people recognize that.

If you spend your time on here attacking people completely unprovoked, then that says a lot more about you than it does about them.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

If #BTC dominance goes higher than 60%, the window to do so is before the end of the year.

60% was a good reasonable target to have back in 2022 when it was at only 38%.

I think dominance should top Q4 2024 or mid-January 2025 at the latest.

Predicting the exact top is difficult. It could be 60% which is why I thought it made sense to hedge once that target was achieved.

The reason to be open minded is because historically dominance does go up in December of halving years.

It could go up to a higher high, or a lower high. ALT/BTC pairs are still off their range lows, but ETH/BTC has already fallen quite a bit.

I would keep an open mind about things, but hedge accordingly.

If the top for dominance is not in, I think the next move would be the top.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

The people that spend their time on here just calling others out completely unprovoked are toxic and not good for BTC.

I have found that the ones that do this typically have worse track records than the people that are respectful and recognize that everyone gets things wrong.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

And as he usually does, he hid my reply. Now I am blocked. Imagine tweeting about someone unprovoked, and then silencing them so that others don't see their response. That is what this guy does.

He loves tweeting about people but hates people to see what actually happened.

He called for $10k BTC and now tries to rewrite history. We all get things wrong (including me). But this guy is in no place to call out anyone.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

#BTC market cycle ROI shows this time has not been different

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Still think with #BTC dominance hitting 60%, it's ok to diversify. As I mentioned, I have removed my maxi hat.

One thing to remember...

In Nov 2020, #ALT / #BTC pairs rallied hard to their bull market support band, only to get rejected.

They got one final drop in December 2020 as the attention turned back towards BTC.

This is an idea to keep in mind in case ALT/BTC pairs drop once more (when no one is expecting it), not something to bet the family farm on.