Probability

all things probability

[Speedy HQ @IShowSpeedHQ]

🚨| WATCH: Speed can’t BELIEVE he just spotted a GOLD Tesla taxi driving around Texas with NO ONE behind the wheel 👀🤯

[Ashok Elluswamy @aelluswamy]

@IShowSpeedHQ bro you should take one of those bad boys around austin

[Max Gagliardi @max_gagliardi]

As a longtime EV hater, I’m coming clean: I got a Tesla Model Y Performance a few months ago.

FSD is just too good, it’s faster than a Lambo, and it costs $40/month vs the $500 I was paying in gas. Too amazing to pass up.

Haven’t ditched the V8 F-150. Still value the 600+ miles of range and the towing. But commuting in it every day was getting ridiculous.

I can’t see myself ever going 100% EV, at least not yet.

But I always said if Tesla ever made an EV that was a better product for my daily use case, I’d buy one.

With FSD they finally have. Commute and around-town driving are amazing in this thing and it’s not even close.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

New Tesla Roadster Unveil 10.01

[Tesla @Tesla]

Go for launch

[Whole Mars Catalog @wholemars]

"The Robotaxi fleet is already running an early version of FSD 15"

— @aelluswamy $TSLA

[Probability @probabilitysci]

Yes absolute nobrainer to wait for v15 and cybercap to increase the speed of scaling.

I am expecting this to come together a lot sooner after yesterday´s call.

[Chuck Cook @ChuckCook]

I am even more confident in this earlier post. v15 and its improvements are what they are waiting for to deploy more and more @Robotaxi at scale. It was reported that an early version of FSD v15 is running on the robotaxi fleet now. There is no doubt in my mind they are post training based on the performance of this model in the same way we get many small point releases on every consumer version of FSD. Once they are happy with the FSD v15 build the robotaxis will come quickly .. IMO. @Tesla_AI

[Teslaconomics @Teslaconomics]

I never knew Ashok (Tesla’s VP of AI) was such a gangster.

I believe his comments were easily one of the biggest highlights of Tesla’s Q2 2026 earnings call today. Instead of making big promises, he backed everything up with facts.

1/ Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet has now driven 380,000+ miles completely unsupervised across six cities in two states with ZERO notable incidents. The only reported incidents were caused by other drivers while Tesla vehicles were stationary.

For many years, the doubters said Tesla would never achieve autonomy without LiDAR, radar, HD maps, and every sensor imaginable. Ashok and the Tesla team just showed the world that Tesla’s vision-only AI approach is already working safely in the real world.

2/ Tesla’s unsupervised Robotaxi miles have been growing at double-digits week-over-week, and Ashok said they expect that rapid growth to continue through the rest of the year.

Even more crazy was, Tesla expects launching new cities to become easier and easier, with the long-term goal of expanding across entire states instead of adding one city at a time.

3/ V15 is already here… Ashok confirmed that Tesla’s live Robotaxi fleet is already running early versions of V15, with roughly 40% of the planned improvements already merged into the software. He said all of Tesla’s major technology bets are beginning to work, and the payoff should be huge.

4/ Cybercab will run the same V15 AI stack that’s powering Robotaxi today, with production being aligned to match the expected growth in autonomous miles.

5/ Optimus is using the exact same end-to-end AI approach as FSD, where it’s pixels in, controls out. Ashok said that gives him high confidence Optimus will become an extremely capable humanoid robot.

To me, Ashok’s update was one of the strongest part of the entire earnings call. I knew Ashok was a great person to lead Tesla AI, but this was the first time I saw this level of confidence in him and the Tesla team.

Great call @aelluswamy!

[Probability @probabilitysci]

Wow:
40% of V15 apparently better than already amazing v14.3 as it is already used in robotaxis instead

0 notable incidents across over 380,000 miles traveled by Robotaxi

"We'll continue to scale more than 10% per week in terms of miles driven."

And shares are 15% cheaper

[Genma_Jp @nymbusjp]

https://t.co/LgeS1rfXlZ

[Whole Mars Catalog @wholemars]

Q: Are there any other federal regulatory changes you need to unlock Cybercab?

Lars: Short answer, no

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Tesla FSD subscriptions went up 56% in Q2 2026 to 1.48 million, an increase of 200,000 from Q1 2026.

Tesla added more FSD subscribers in Q2 than in any quarter in its history.

[Whole Mars Catalog @wholemars]

this is a big deal

[Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams 🇺🇸 @WR4NYGov]

Elon cracks me up:

"You can just think of Earth like a giant satellite."

Of course Earth is a giant satellite but we don't think that way. 1:06:52 in the video

I don't get why people are complaining about the call. They told us CapEx would be huge. OpEx increased because of R&D.

This was a great call for long term bulls. If you didn't get that, you missed it. I felt my hair blowing back and I'm bald. Video coming - about the call, not my hair.

https://t.co/obrnC9Fv4I

[Alex Nikolic @Sale2322]

@agsonworms @talkwith_jason @Tesla It all says in the title. 55% clicked yes I want to subscribe, so 45% declined and got a month for free anyways.

[Aryan Butala @butala_aryan]

First in depth review of FSD v15 on Robotaxi. This video highlights key moments, uncut video in comments.

After hearing @aelluswamy mention Robotaxi was running FSD v15, I immediately went on a ride! There are definitely parts of the drive that behave different than the current customer version of FSD.

At the very beginning of the drive, the Robotaxi encounters a stationary car which was waiting to supercharge. The wheel is twitching to go around the car. I believe this is to slowly inch to the left to gain more context and visibility to proceed, rather than diving straight in as 14.3.x would have. Ensuring the road is clear prevents the need to reverse in the event of a car coming from the opposite side. Exactly what I would have done.

The acceleration and braking behavior of the model are much better than v14. It is MUCH better at predicting the following distance from the car in front. I experienced no brake stabs at all. The turn signal behavior is exactly where I would like it. Not too early, but not too late as to alarm the driver behind of a last minute turn. Unlike 14.3.x, it gets into the lane that it needs to much earlier in order to avoid messing up the flow of traffic later.

In the middle of the drive, I noticed we were slowing down in the middle of the road. Not abruptly, but a calm deceleration. Turns out it was waiting for 2 ducks to pass! Great job on that. The ducks didn't get startled because the car saw them earlier on and reacted accordingly. Instantly as the duck gets on the curb, it continues. No hesitation. It also avoids a pothole that Robotaxi and my personal car always used to hit.

It drives by people on the sidewalk without jitteriness or sudden movements. v14.3.x sometimes gives too much space between the car and pedestrian causing it to cross in the adjacent lane.

At a red light, the lane that the Robotaxi was in had more cars in front of it, so it turned from a speed of 0 to get into the shorter lane. This smart behavior allowed it to make the green light as the cars it passed got stuck when the light turned red.

FSD performs U-turns flawlessly without slowing down or extensive checking for clearance. Lane changes don't seem sudden as they do in v14.3.x. The initial turn of the wheel is smooth. The gold path on the Robotaxi's screen smoothly changes lanes, making the car perform a smoother transition.

Overall, the whole ride was executed EXACTLY as I would have done it. For this ride, I give it a 10/10. There was no point where I was confused in why Robotaxi made the decision it did. The model is more confident, assertive and humanlike. I did not get to observe yellow light behavior or school zones in this ride, but I am sure the car handles them well. All of the little things this ride exhibited make the car blend in really well in Houston traffic during rush hour.

Outstanding job on @robotaxi Self-Driving v15 @Tesla_AI, @aelluswamy, and @elonmusk 👏

This video highlights the best parts. Complete raw video is in the comments.

[Gene Munster @munster_gene]

Ashok Elluswamy, VP of AI Software from $TSLA says eventually Robotaxi will turn on entire states at a time.

The message from the company on Robotaxi is they're doing what they said they would. Keep it safe, learn, and reading between the lines, they think they can eventually drop a bomb on Waymo.

[Tesla @Tesla]

0 notable incidents across over 380,000 miles traveled by Robotaxi

[Cern Basher @CernBasher]

Two more green checks...

[Mike P @mikepat711]

FSD V14.3.5 ➡️ V14.3.6

First impressions:

The car drove me from a parking spot to a parking spot, and everything that happened in between made me think about how life crawled out of water millions of years ago and eventually became a thing with two arms two legs and a brain that figured out how to turn rocks into robots. And it felt like art in motion. Because FSD V14 is art.

For all of the criticisms I’ve shared, you won’t ever see me fading Tesla, because this has proven over and over again to be the most impressive consumer tech product I’ve ever experienced, of any kind.

If you live in a Model Y running 14.3 and still think Tesla isn’t going to ship autonomy, you have brain damage and should get looked at