ProbTrader

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@endless_frank They don't want you to lose money

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@zerohedge I don't see why that drop is supposed to drain liquidity. How I see it is that the draining adds liquidity to the system as money flows out, back into other financial assets. The draining began in May 2023 and that is when the bull market started, despite high rates and QT.

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@JagNL @zerohedge If I understand you right, you think that the drop in RRP usage is because banks have less excess cash to "park" there? Why wouldn't it just flow into other assets and add more liquidity? May 2023 was when the draining began which is also when the bull market started.

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@zerohedge Less money parked in the RRP means that money flows into other financial assets instead, right? So, wouldn't this add liquidity? I remember reading @LynAldenContact say the recent bull market despite high rates and QT was due to the RRP draining which added liquidity

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@unusual_whales They have been having negative earnings for some time and missed estimates most of the time. But with BTC rising and their stock rising too it shows that they are completely a proxy for BTC rather than a software company.

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@NorthmanTrader Basically short-term market breadth is bearish. The Bullish Percent Index for SPX has also just closed below 70 today, which historically has come with selloffs most of the time.

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@porterstansb There is this saying that when your taxi driver starts to talk about stocks, you know it's time to get out

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@dieterismagil @Mr_Derivatives So this means that betting on Kamala is actually cheaper and has higher return potential than it should be?

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@Mr_Derivatives The Bullish Percent Index for SPX is close to crossing below 70. Most of the times we had a selloff so why shouldn't we have one this time?

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@NickWoolos I agree with you. The Bullish Percent Index for the SPX is on the verge of crossing 70 as well which has historically come with market selloffs most of the times.

I think however that good earnings this week could spark an upward move

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@Mr_Derivatives In my experience Gold Miners have been significantly underperforming Gold. Gold is in a bit of a consolidation phase right now so I would wait to be long again

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@market_sleuth Don't you think earnings this week could be a potential catalyst upwards? I'm already positioned short but would size up after earnings

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@DailyCompoundng Don't worry, there won't be any stimulus until there are clear signs the Fed is going to cut rates more aggressively. Otherwise all that money flows out in no time

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@StockMKTNewz Gold and Treasury Bonds

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@Mr_Derivatives Take a look at $PYPL. A stock no one is talking about but is slowly climbing. Fundamentally totally undervalued. They report earnings next Tuesday

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@Mayhem4Markets It's got more to do with the decision of the Fed not to cut rates. If you look at the CNY/USD exchange rate you see that money has been flowing out of China since the start of October.

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@stackthesegains @unusual_whales $TLT covers 20+ Year Treasuries and it's been selling off for months now

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@WOLF_Financial $PYPL. Great earnings and fundamentally strongly undervalued at this current price.

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@market_sleuth I will buy some SPY puts next week. IV will increase too until the election due to uncertainty

[ProbTrader @ProbTrade]

@market_sleuth I believe it SPY bounced off support (previous high). I'm bullish and will probably add more if it manages to take out Wednesday's upper range