Andrew MacDonald

Assoc Prof at @DukeKunshan. Previously a PhD student @UniofOxford. Completely amateur runner and Trader Joe's aficionado

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@TheBlackWallaby @AndyBxxx @TheStalwart Chinese apps generate the light timings from user data - how long previous map users waited. US stoplights much more commonly use dynamic wait times (sensors in the pavement etc.) so this feature wouldn’t be that useful.

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@JeremiahDJohns @MariGO2thepolls His book was true for a snapshot in time but he wrote it as if the deep psychological truth of liberal and conservative for all time was based on that moment in time. Yet five years later the moral valences of all the stuff he wrote about already flipped.

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@Brad_Setser @RambutanRed I will read it but I think you are vastly overestimating the impact that would have occurred if China lowered its auto tariffs in the 2000s-2010s. All the US and Euro auto manufacturers wanted to produce in China and then sell in China, not produce overseas then sell in China.

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@Brad_Setser @RambutanRed Total global auto sales are 100m, I think after China builds some factories in Europe etc. I expect Chinese exports to decline. The vast majority of value add for autos are at the design stage so most auto firms don't care about location of manufacture.

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@Brad_Setser @RambutanRed Still doesn't address the fact that 95% of total world auto sales are for autos produced on country of sale market

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@Brad_Setser @RambutanRed Yes 25% US chicken tax tariff is the most relevant example but even if it were lifted is Volkswagen going to build an F150 in Germany and export it to the US? No way.

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@Brad_Setser @RambutanRed It's not plausible that Volkswagen is going to prefer importing high labor cost Passats from Germany into low labor cost China vs. locally producing them

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@Brad_Setser @RambutanRed Even if foreign auto firms were allowed to choose between WFOEs and 0% tariffs they would choose WFOEs

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@OOFPerson214931 @IAPolls2022 This list is only for midterms. Anyway if you believe your post there are free $20 to pick up off the ground on Polymarket.

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@AGhiselliChina I think much more significant is Trump using China's preferred framing of the Taiwan situation in interviews after the trip. Of course Trump is unpredictable and who knows what he will say next but Beijing certainly saw that as a big, albeit symbolic, win.

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@0x49fa98 @stygian_silence @thltd_ Distance runners don't peak until they are in their late 30s because distance running is much more about lung capacity. To be a good sprinter you need to have big quads. That extra weight there is all muscle on the image on the right - I doubt her body fat % is any higher.

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@razibkhan Is MIT actually saying that or are you making up someone to get mad at?

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@Brad_Setser @globalcitizen_K I hope you are right but this trip is pretty much a disaster for the China hawk wing of his admin.

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@Brad_Setser @globalcitizen_K Take some time to pivot back? That some China hawk hopium right there. This trip is the death knell for any remaining doubt that Trump has abandoned doing anything about China.

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@vshih2 View is still great there.

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@AGhiselliChina Getting in on some of that China-maxxing content

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@Kazanjy @ArtemisConsort Now apply this to blue collar factory workers in the 2000s

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@jds705 @mattyglesias Fetterman ran as the leftist outsider candidate against Lamb.

[Andrew MacDonald @profandrewm]

@jbarro @RichardHanania It is one thing if this is a shakedown where the complaints don't have a basis in law. But if these places are actually not ADA compliant then the problem isn't the guy suing, it's the law (and maybe somewhat the shops that don't follow it).