David Deming

Danoff Dean of Harvard College @harvard. Isabelle and Scott Black Professor of Political Economy @Kennedy_School. Newsletter -

[David Deming @ProfDavidDeming]

Then we turn to Harvard, what it does to ambitious young people, whether it was good for his soul, and what a 390-year-old university owes a country about to turn 250. We even talk about whether Harvard and other universities should admit students by random lottery. Enjoy!

[David Deming @ProfDavidDeming]

Today's episode of The Context Window is with @DouthatNYT.

[David Deming @ProfDavidDeming]

https://t.co/KZXw12jrCT

We start with the evidence for God, and whether the arrival of machine intelligence makes the case for a creator stronger or weaker. I asked him to convince me that God exists, and also what evidence would convince him otherwise. That was fun!

[David Deming @ProfDavidDeming]

@angeladuckw Let me know what you think! New episodes drop every Wednesday.
YouTube: https://t.co/Gq3voU4VTW
Substack: https://t.co/muM3caKbwC

Also available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you listen.

[David Deming @ProfDavidDeming]

Today I'm launching a podcast! It’s called The Context Window with David Deming.

My first guest is Angela Duckworth. @angeladuckw

[David Deming @ProfDavidDeming]

The first episode is a conversation with Angela Duckworth @angeladuckw - psychologist, bestselling author, MacArthur Fellow. Her resume looks perfect, but as you'll hear, she spent ten years feeling, in her words, "capital-L Lost," trying out different careers.

[NBER @nberpubs]

Documenting the growth of ChatGPT since its launch in November 2022 and exploring usage patterns by conversation topic and user characteristics, from @RonnieChatterji, @testingham, @ProfDavidDeming, @zhitzig, Christopher Ong, Carl Yan Shan, and Kevin Wadman https://t.co/z5EtAdnLbV

[David Deming @ProfDavidDeming]

Personal news. I am starting a new job on July 1:
https://t.co/6w75NuZUUH

Still planning to do research and writing, although perhaps at a slower pace!

[David Deming @ProfDavidDeming]

This was fun @DKThomp, thanks for having me!

[Derek Thompson @DKThomp]

New pod: Something very strange is happening to the labor market for college graduates. Their unemployment is rising much faster than the overall economy—in a way that's unprecedented in the last 40 yrs.

And it's not just that. MBA graduates are having a harder and harder time finding work. Law school applications are surging—an ominous sign of labor market weakness, for those who remember 2007.

So, what's going on?

Harvard economist @ProfDavidDeming and I talk thru the evidence.

1. Maybe we're seeing normal labor-market weakening, in a period of high economic uncertainty.
2. Maybe we're seeing a continuation of the post-2010 flatlining (and mild deterioration) of the college wage premium.
3. Maybe we're seeing white-collar companies pinch pennies by hiring fewer college grads and using Generative AI to make up the difference.

https://t.co/Qt1jOHm0tM

[David Deming @ProfDavidDeming]

great article @DKThomp!

[Derek Thompson @DKThomp]

New essay: Something strange—and possibly worrying—is happening to the job market for college grads: unemployment for recent grads is rising, while law school applications are surging.

Maybe it's a sign of Trumpy chaos. Maybe it's a sign of something more structural.

So, here's question I'm mildly obsessed with: What economic indicator should we watch closely to know if AI is starting to really change the whole macroeconomy? "When you think from first principles about what generative AI can do, and what jobs it can replace, it’s the kind of things that young college grads have done” in white-collar firms, @ProfDavidDeming told me. “They read and synthesize information and data. They produce reports and presentations.”

I agree. I'm not catastrophic about the risk of total disemployment by machines. But I do think Gen-AI is amazing at the precise skillset of paralegals and young i-bankers, consultants, researchers, and coders. So I've been wondering when we'll see recent grad unemployment peel away from the rest of the economy.

Well, that's precisely what's happening now. The unemployment rate for recent grads is worse now relative to the overall economy than any time in the last four decades, at least.

Is this slam-dunk evidence of AI disruption? As I say in the piece: nope. But it's ... something to watch.

[NBER @nberpubs]

Leaders who are good at managing artificially intelligent agents are also good at managing humans, from Ben Weidmann, Yixian Xu, and @ProfDavidDeming https://t.co/wnuj9QiUj5

[David Deming @ProfDavidDeming]

Thanks @emollick. I wrote a summary of the paper here, including a discussion of how it relates to your Cybernetic teammates paper:
https://t.co/LPbazOASM8

[Ethan Mollick @emollick]

Harvard study shows we can measure leadership skills by seeing how folks manage GPT-4o simulated people

AI assessments strongly correlate (r=0.81) with human team assessments. Effective leaders ask questions & do conversational turn-taking and have fluid & social intelligence

[Harvard Kennedy School @Kennedy_School]

Is AI already shaking up labor market?

A new paper by HKS's @ProfDavidDeming and @LHSummers offers early evidence of artificial intelligence disrupting the workforce https://t.co/bDB1s3TSXz

[Bill Kerr @william_r_kerr]

Pleased to welcome @Harvard economist @ProfDavidDeming to the #ManagingTheFutureOfWork podcast. Great insights on AI's early impact on the #labormarket, the evolving #skills picture, higher-ed & more. https://t.co/oQCFg7dmXf . #AI #education #communitycollege #college

[Hoover Institution @HooverInst]

Who uses generative AI in the workplace? Will the spread of GenAI tools propel a lasting productivity boom in the United States? Harvard University @ProfDavidDeming has some answers that are grounded in data. Watch the latest episode of Economics Applied with host Steven Davis:

[The Atlantic @TheAtlantic]

The Trump administration’s cuts to university research grants will make America sicker and poorer in the long run, @ProfDavidDeming writes. DOGE should stop "confusing efficiency with ill-conceived budget cuts." https://t.co/gr0xvSBsXr

[The Atlantic @TheAtlantic]

The Trump administration’s cuts to university research grants will make America sicker and poorer in the long run, @ProfDavidDeming writes. DOGE should stop "confusing efficiency with ill-conceived budget cuts." https://t.co/ZfDGWPd7wB