Mr.Patience

[phads @PhadsEth]

$IREN WHALE HUNTING 🐋

Last time @mikealfred joined the weekly IREN space, the very next day I wrote a post about how IREN was uniquely positioned for an AI Enterprise advantage. The day after my post, IREN announced their Mirantis acquisition (I just got lucky with the timing).

Mike joined the weekly space once again yesterday, and again challenged us that the community was still not thinking big enough. Here is my latest attempt at highlighting why today, IREN is now also in a unique position to go after what I see as the biggest WHALE client in the AI / HPC space, one that is growing exponentially - the US Federal Government's AI compute contracts

https://t.co/938j8HR1zZ

[Max @MaxScore]

on sept 15 2008, lehman brothers collapsed and gave the whole world a reason to believe in $BTC

on june 12 2026, a single government order forced anthropic to pull its most capable models offline for every foreign national on earth, and gave the whole world a reason to believe in bittensor:native

humans only react to negative things. sad but true.

in 2008 we learned the banks were the problem. in 2026 we’ll learn that one kill switch sitting inside a centralised AI lab is the problem.

[Stephen Hall @stephenjhall]

@Erikcason He’s right and it’s obvious and no one is willing to consider it.

[Cred @CryptoCred]

As a lifetime retarded crypto investor I feel duty-bound to top blast and act as exit liquidity for all these upcoming tradfi IPOs

The expected value is quite reasonable:

If I’m right, I make money

If I’m wrong, then I just need to wait a year or two - I’ll get UBI and a personal robot giving me reacharounds and snacks while some dude in a San Francisco broom cupboard has to remotely view my disgusting body in 12-hour shifts for training data

Pretty good deal

[Bit Paine ⚡️ @BitPaine]

If Michael Saylor hadn’t pulled 850,000 $BTC out of circulation over the last 6 years we would be at $40,000.

Shitcoins would be relatively higher on their $BTC pairs though, because $MSTR captured much of the retail speculative frenzy that typically spilled over into “alt season” and ported that into irrevocable $BTC demand.

This is why every shitcoiner hates Saylor. He utterly destroyed their business model of selling $BTC volatility by offering a superior product.

[Blockchain Backer @BCBacker]

Bitcoin sits at 10.2 million coins in a loss.

For reference:

10.7 million - 2018 Bear Market Capitulation Bottom
10.4 million - Covid Bottom
10.6 million - 2022 Bear Market Bottom / FTX Collapse

[Super฿ro @SuperBitcoinBro]

2022 was the only cycle to lose the 200 week SMA on a closing basis, and today's backdrop could not be more different.

Even if you started buying BTC at the 200 SMA in 2022, at just $22K, you absolutely crushed it, and you had more time to stack.

[Cryptic Trades @CrypticTrades_]

5 years ago at $61K, we had one of the biggest alt seasons in history, with extreme euphoria.

2 years ago at $61K, everyone was screaming for new all-time highs.

Today, at $61K, nearly everyone is completely shaken out and ready to give up.

This is what creates opportunities.

[mon @moninvestor]

The mistake most investors make is thinking the edge is in finding more stocks. It is not. The edge is in reducing the list until only a few ideas actually deserve to exist in your portfolio at any meaningful size.

[VECTOR PRIME @VECTORCP]

I was going through the weekly charts and every single bottom has either retested the previous ath zone or retested 200 moving average on the weekly

Clearly stating the risk to reward on the htf of this zone

People calling for 40k or any random number should understand it violates the overall macro structure and would not be sensible to look for a crash like that

#bitcoin

[10Δ @_10delta_]

Characteristic early stages of a new crypto cycle.

Liquidity exiting in a tug-of-war against new liquidity entering the system.

> Retail chasing "greener pastures" in equities as structured crypto native vehicles start to gather & deploy capital (e.g. recent VC & liquid fund raises)
> Finex OGs glad to buy (ETF) outflows
> Mixed economic signals (e.g. inflation transitory? consumer health? real wage growth?) leading to mixed interpretations of future monetary policy
> Rapid, almost schizophrenic, sentiment shifts from bullish to bearish
> Small pockets of outperformance in a desert of languishing assets
> 0 => 1 innovations being overshadowed by memories of previous overvalued trash

Transition from Winter to Spring.

[Tao Outsider @TaoOutsider]

Charts are just entertainment. My focus is $TAO at $10,000.

TAO Bittensor race is long and full of obstacles. We don’t have dedicated market makers on the $TAO ticker. We don’t have VCs supporting the move. Any abnormal buying or selling pressure comes directly from the ecosystem itself or from CEX market makers reacting to real demand.

That’s the point. When this eventually explodes, nobody will be able to contain it. We keep accumulating.

[quantdata21 @bitcoindata21]

I remember months after the 15k bitcoin lows in 2022, people didn't want to bullieve.

Price went to 25k in early 2023 and retraced to 20k...

- At that time people were coming at me, saying there is no liquidity for the market to go up, and that we had to wait for "QE".

- Some permabear guy named Ben was also telling people to wait for 2024. Legend has it he is still telling people to wait.

- Another by the name of Capo was pushing the idea of 10k very hard. He wasn't the only one.

- At 32k (+100% from the lows) a few months later, there were still calls for it being a relief rally. And that a retest of the lows were likely.

- Then 50k came around the launch of the ETFs, and it was being marked as the cycle top.

- Only when 74k was hit in early 2024 [MORE THAN A YEAR AFTER THE BOTTOM], did the consensus of the market finally flip bullish.

The whole point of saying this - it's all happening again. People never learn.

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

https://t.co/kCDBOWcpjC

[DAN KOE @thedankoe]

If you don't have a goal so meaningful it makes other people's opinions irrelevant, you will lose control of your life. You will adopt the goals assigned to you by your parents, peers, or society.

[Daniel Newman @danielnewmanUV]

1999 Internet bubble vs. 2026 AI revolution

I will share these every day until these silly comparisons stop. 🙃

[THE BITCOIN PHARAOH @thebtcpharaoh]

Metaplanet's US Strategy: What Metaplanet Is Building in the US — Connecting Every Dot

Over the past couple of weeks, #Metaplanet management have been dropping clues that they are preparing something significant on the US side. We can all guess what it is (and there are several possibilities) but it’s becoming increasingly clear that something is in the works. Here’s what I’m seeing.

The chronological US buildout
A 13-month progression that doesn't look incidental when you line it up:
→ April 2025: Metaplanet Treasury Corporation (Miami) established — highlighted by COO Yoshimi Abe on May 7: "One year ago, we established Metaplanet Treasury Corporation in Miami, our first US entity." https://t.co/HchHevtxFs
→ July 2025: Establishment of US Holding Subsidiary and Share Transfer by Way of Contribution in Kind
→ September 17, 2025: Metaplanet Income Corp (US) established — specifically to operate the Bitcoin Income Generation business out of US jurisdiction
→ December 12, 2025: Form F-6 filed with SEC — registration of Sponsored ADR shares
→ December 19, 2025: SEC declares the F-6 effective. Sponsored Level 1 ADR launches under ticker $MPJPY with Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas as depositary and MUFG Bank as custodian.
→ March 12, 2026: Strategic-disclosure day. Three coordinated filings drop together: • Establishment of Metaplanet Asset Management (US subsidiary) • Establishment of Metaplanet Ventures K.K. (Japan venture arm) • Investment in JPYC Inc. via Metaplanet Ventures

I want to pause here for a minute and share a excerpt from their own filing: https://t.co/q2L58LJaRY

This is the actual language from Metaplanet's March 12 filing announcing Metaplanet Asset Management:
"The Company sees an opportunity to establish a dedicated asset management platform to serve this market, bridging Asian and Western capital markets."
The same filing goes further. It explicitly names the product set: "perpetual preferred securities and related fixed income instruments, a category increasingly referred to as Digital Credit" — alongside "actively managed strategies… derivatives and structured positions, equity and credit strategies focused on Bitcoin treasury companies… index products and benchmarks."
Then it commits to the rollout: "The Company intends to announce specific funds, managed strategies, and structured products as they are launched, spanning the full spectrum of Bitcoin capital markets from yield instruments and fixed income to actively managed equity, credit, commodity, and volatility strategies."
This plan was disclosed two months ago in plain English in a filing on their website. This has been in the works for some time.
A perpetual preferred ("Digital Credit") is the most likely first product IMO. But it's the first product in a platform, not a one-off raise. Metaplanet Asset Management is the operating engine for a multi-product Bitcoin capital markets business — issued out of US jurisdiction, designed from inception to bridge Tokyo-listed parent equity, US institutional appetite, and Japanese yield-starved capital into a single ecosystem.

→ March 16, 2026: Capital Allocation Policy revised.
→ April 13, 2026: Metaplanet opens a 60-day fee-free window (Apr 13 to Jun 12) for converting unsponsored $MTPLF shares into sponsored $MPJPY ADRs. Removes the standard $0.05/ADR fee. More on this later.
→ April 26, 2026: Metaplanet lights up the Las Vegas Sphere with "Secure the Future with Bitcoin" — ~$450K/day for premium US institutional visibility. https://t.co/vOQO8nNQdk
→ April 27, 2026: High-tier sponsor of Bitcoin for Corporations at Bitcoin 2026 Conference (Venetian, Las Vegas)
→ May 7–13, 2026: Boston (and potentially other US cities) week-long institutional roadshow. Full senior team: Simon Gerovich (CEO), Dylan LeClair (Head of BTC Strategy), Yoshimi Abe (COO), Shinpei (IR).
→ May 13, 2026: Q1 FY2026 results filed. Same day, coordinated messaging: • Simon: Japan prefs listing "has taken longer than we initially anticipated… we appreciate that this has created uncertainty" — explicit admission of delay. Flagged monthly dividends as a structural feature that would also take time to build. https://t.co/C9lMVUZ3xy • Dylan: "Transforming capital markets is patient work. We will continue diligently, tirelessly, and without compromise, in Japan and abroad." The "and abroad" is not a slip. Shoutout to @swissBTCmaxi for catching that https://t.co/fPl7oRmc7N
Five US legal entities. Sponsored ADR with a major Wall Street depositary. Million-dollar Sphere/conference spend. CEO + COO + Head of Bitcoin Strategy + IR on a senior-roadshow tour. Coordinated same-day messaging.

The fee-waiver window is not a coincidence
Look at the calendar. The fee-free $MTPLF→$MPJPY conversion window runs Apr 13 to June 12, 2026. My projected announcement window for a US perpetual preferred (144A path) is mid-June to mid-July (more on this below). The waiver expires almost exactly when the announcement is expected to land.
This isn't coincidence. Before issuing a USD-denominated perpetual preferred under the same parent, you want the sponsored ADR — Deutsche Bank-backed MPJPY — trading with consolidated, deep, institutionally-clean float. So management compressed the MTPLF→MPJPY migration into a 60-day sprint that ends right as the new product needs the ADR liquidity to launch on top of it.

The pricing reality
A 5-6% rate works in Japan because Japan is yield-starved. It does not work in the US, where the comparable BTC-treasury perpetual prefs already clear at much higher yields - let’s just call it anywhere between 10-14% depending on the instrument and issuer.
If Metaplanet issues a USD perpetual preferred to clear at scale ($200–500M), the coupon almost certainly needs to be 12%+.

The EDGAR reality check
I went to SEC EDGAR to red-team this. Here's what I found:
→ Metaplanet Inc. (CIK 0002100603) has only TWO filings ever: the F-6 ADR registration and its EFFECT notice — both from December 2025. Zero filings in 2026.
→ Metaplanet Asset Management — no EDGAR registration. Not a filer.
→ Metaplanet Income Corp — no EDGAR registration. Not a filer.
→ Metaplanet Treasury Corporation — no EDGAR registration. Not a filer.
→ (Note: "Metaplanet AI Fund I, LP" exists on EDGAR with Estonian principals and AI focus — completely unrelated, just a name coincidence.)
This rules out an imminent NYSE/Nasdaq listing or fully SEC-registered F-1 IPO — those require scaffolding that we'd already see by now.
But it strongly supports a Reg S / 144A private placement path:
144A placements sell to qualified institutional buyers (QIBs) only
Don't require SEC pre-registration
Allow public marketing without quiet period (which is exactly what we're observing)
Can close in 4–12 weeks from pre-marketing
This is the same mechanism Strategy used for $STRC/$STRD/$STRF — initial 144A placement, eventual broader registration

The most likely scenarios, ranked
1. US 144A perpetual preferred. Issued by Metaplanet Inc. or Metaplanet Asset Management, structured like a $STRC clone (or possibly convertible like MERCURY). Sized $200–500M. Targets QIBs initially; broader exchange listing later.
2. Metaplanet Asset Management product launch. Could be a US-domiciled BTC treasury fund or managed strategy that institutional allocators buy into. Distinct from issuing securities directly. Fees on AUM become a revenue line.
3. $MPJPY upgraded from Level 1 to Level II/III ADR. Common stock dual listing on Nasdaq. Simpler, faster, no new instrument. But EDGAR shows no F-3 yet, so this would push to Q4 2026 at earliest.

Some of the scenarios may not be mutually exclusive.

Timeline
If 144A path (most likely):
Roadshow start: May 7 ✓
Anchoring institutional orders: 3–6 weeks
Announcement window: mid-June to mid-July 2026
Pricing and close: 2–4 weeks post-announcement
144A listing / QIB trading start: late July to early August 2026

Closing thoughts
@Strategy is running the best capital markets playbook in financial history. @Strive is doing a fantastic job and punching above its weight.

But the loudest stories aren't always the biggest ones.
Metaplanet is building something none of the others have. Don't write off the dark horse just because there is a new flavor of the month.

They've been training. And they're ready to sprint.

[Trix Investments @TrixInvestments]

The amount of posts of people bashing $HIMS is so funny.

1st - EPS is a completely irrelevant metric when it comes to companies focused on growth. $HIMS is currently undergoing an acquisition and is on a stock based compensation model, which directly affects EPS. It has nothing to do with how well the company is “performing”.

This is basic accounting 101.

2nd - The revenue only growing 4% was expected. Management stated in Q4 that due to revenue recognition timing, they were expected to see lower growth based on when they recognize certain revenue subscriptions.

It seems to me that a lot of people on X are just posting the $HIMS Q1 numbers with no explanation and using that as a reason to justify it’s a “bad company”.

Silly.