Profercy

Specialise in Global fertilizer market prices and analysis w/ clients worldwide - producers, traders, importers, governments, banks. Info

[Profercy @Profercy]

Total volumes confirmed in the IPL urea purchasing tender hit 1.5m. tonnes this morning – awards due to follow soon. After a slow few weeks, this removes a lot of product from the market for Nov/early-Dec shipment, particularly from eastern suppliers.

[Profercy @Profercy]

India falling behind on imports in Q3/Q4 2021 was a major factor that contributed to high global values at the time. The 9 September tender will again provide a major test of supply, particularly ex-Russia and China.

[Profercy @Profercy]

News last week that record high gas prices were forcing more nitrogen production curtailments sparked a global urea price rally. Cutbacks in Lithuania/Poland, as well as news from Yara, confirmed what many had expected and added to the list of casualties since last Sept.

[Profercy @Profercy]

Eastern urea markets have been dormant for some time, but India’s return to the market for around 1m. tonnes is set to support recent Middle East price gains at a time when China’s absence is still being felt.

[Profercy @Profercy]

Nitrogen markets are responding to the latest developments in Ukraine. The prospect of sanctions on Russian material, potential supply disruption and advancing energy prices have supported a $70-100pt fob increase in Egyptian gran urea values. $700pt fob traded today for Mar.

[Profercy @Profercy]

Urea - India's anticipated return to the market has been confirmed today with IPL announcing a purchasing tender to close 7 Feb for shipments to 20 March.

Very welcome news for global producers given the generally slow pace of business since the start of the year.

[Profercy @Profercy]

@R_Buitenhuis1 $700pt fob. Small volumes have now been sold at $710pt fob.

[Profercy @Profercy]

After a difficult start to the year for producers, urea values are on a firmer footing. The prospect of India returning to the market has aided some producers in building order books for Feb.

Egyptian gran urea producers have managed price increases of $100pt in the past 24 hrs

[Profercy @Profercy]

The Nola urea market is not for the faint hearted. With a handful of sellers cutting barge offers yesterday down to $615-620ps ton, the market has staged a recovery. Jan/Feb barges have traded at $690-700ps ton this morning. Welcome news for global urea producers.

[Profercy @Profercy]

Slow start to '22 in the intl urea market. In contrast to the final 4 months of '21, there has been no major bullish news lately. With liquidity limited, Nola values fell sharply this AM - Feb barges traded down to $620pst fob Nola. Late last week Jan traded over $730pst.

[Profercy @Profercy]

Urea - India has come back to the market quickly with IPL to hold a new purchasing tender 11 Nov for shipments to end-Dec. This comes less than 5 days after RCF booked just 465kt.

Bids from traders and manufacturers invited. This is unwelcome news for buyers in other markets.

[Profercy @Profercy]

In today's urea tender, RCF India received a lowest offer of $895pt fob ME, over $210pt above comparable offers in the 1 Oct tender.

With RCF restricting offers to producers, under 470kt was offered. India will not secure major vols, even at these prices.

[Profercy @Profercy]

Profercy’s World Nitrogen Index has hit its highest ever level since inception in 2009. With global supplies of urea short and India due in the market imminently as it looks to catch up on its purchasing, further price increases look increasingly likely.
https://t.co/P6ouV5N6wi

[Profercy @Profercy]

With European gas prices taking another step up today and regional N production under threat, import demand for urea remains buoyant.

Egyptian granular urea has now sold at $800pt fob, up $48pt on last done business which took place yesterday.

[Profercy @Profercy]

With counters only issued for the east coast ($665.50pt cfr), India has secured just over 700,000t of urea in the latest import tender, primarily from China. A greater volume was needed with India behind on imports. In a tight market, India will need to entice other suppliers.

[Profercy @Profercy]

Global urea values continue to race ahead with buyers willing to pay higher to secure volumes. Profercy’s Nitrogen Index has increased by over 23 points, the biggest weekly increase on record, and is now at levels last seen in May '12. More here: https://t.co/iSz4kTOpDG

[Profercy @Profercy]

No let up to the urea price rally in the West. Egyptian granular urea has now sold at $600pt fob for November. Prices are up $160pt in a matter of weeks. Eastern values also rallied this morning with major volumes sold in SE Asia, including product destined for western markets.

[Profercy @Profercy]

After considerable delay, India is now in the market for urea - tender closing 1 Oct. Availability from China is uncertain, while Ukraine is seeing production cutbacks (high gas costs). Prior to the tender news, eastern fob values stepped up with over $500pt SE Asia bid today.