Amir Sufi

Bruce Lindsay Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Chicago Booth

[Amir Sufi @profsufi]

The results from Brazil also fit into the broader global picture that sharp rises in household debt predict an economic downturn. Brazil certainly fits the pattern. And now all eyes on China, which appears to be in a similar dynamic (N/N)

[Amir Sufi @profsufi]

Starting in 2011, the Brazilian government tried to boost economic activity through aggressive household lending through government-owned banks. Is "household credit as stimulus" a good idea? A new paper with Gabriel Garber, @AtifRMian, and @jacopont (1/N)
https://t.co/k4DF8lNYmZ

[Amir Sufi @profsufi]

There may be an important role for governments in developing household credit markets to help with risk-sharing, house purchases, and education financing. But the Brazilian example suggests that using household credit to juice economic activity can end badly (5/N)

[NBER @nberpubs]

A major government credit program in Brazil resulted in higher borrowing by public sector employees with low financial literacy at the expense of higher volatility and lower average consumption, from Gabriel Garber, @atifrmian, @jacopont, and @profsufi https://t.co/Wnt97Ws7fe

[Amir Sufi @profsufi]

As a general point, the literature on market concentration could benefit from an injection of finance scholarship! I think finance is an important part of the overall explanation for trends in market concentration over the past 30 years (N/N)

[Amir Sufi @profsufi]

We live in an extremely low interest rate environment. What are the consequences for industry competition and market structure? This is the focus of the recent study we released (joint with Thomas Kroen @ErnestLiuEcon @AtifRMian). A thread (1/N)
https://t.co/3O0aswjny3

[Amir Sufi @profsufi]

The stakes are high, because there is a growing body of research connecting market concentration to the decline in productivity growth. Our study suggests that low interest rates are an important link in the chain (6/N)

[NBER @nberpubs]

Falling interest rates disproportionately benefit industry leaders, especially when rates are already low, from Thomas Kroen, @ErnestLiuEcon, @atifrmian, and @profsufi https://t.co/OUqewx53QY

[Atif Mian @AtifRMian]

Are very low interest rates market neutral?

Or do low rates tend to tilt the scale in favor of market leaders, thus reducing competition?

We have a new empirical paper out that suggests falling rates help the rise of superstars

A short thread ...

https://t.co/isaOiZQhoT

[Lukasz Rachel @LukaszRachel]

New paper by @ErnestLiuEcon @AtifRMian @profsufi & Tom Kroen shows that lower rates benefit industry leaders; more so as r➡️0. Links low r and high concentration as in earlier theory paper: https://t.co/tEKyIPKBxu

Falling Rates and Rising Superstars https://t.co/3pjI4RSqKQ

[scott cunningham @causalinf]

Can’t even explain yet to my non-Econ friends just what a revolutionary force these three economists who just won the Nobel created. My book on causal inference has a blurb by Guido on the back and I sent one to Angrist with the inscription “thank you for inspiring a generation”

[Alex Mas @AMLabEcon]

Uncorking the Champagne here!

This is a win for labor economics, modern empirical microeconomics, and three economists who were at the center of a revolution.

[Ryan Hill @RyanReedHill]

Congrats on a well-deserved Nobel Prize for @metrics52, a fantastic advisor, scholar, and teacher. Rock on, Josh!
(screenshots courtesy of his sneaky metrics TA in March 2020)