Property Forecast

Real estate data nerd. Market trends, regional insights, and (lots of) charts.

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

You can now research, discover, and analyze real estate markets entirely through conversation

Property Forecast MCP server turns Claude, ChatGPT, or any AI agent into your real estate research assistant with direct access to the latest data and forecasts

Live now 🚀

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

related charts 👀

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

Miami seeing some oversupply dynamics playing out right now

13% vacancy rate
15% absorption rate (monthly)
88 days on market (median)
21% of sellers cutting prices

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

forgot to install the Property Forecast MCP server

[Parcl @Parcl]

claude, tell me if the housing market is going to crash. make no mistakes.

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

@keymadisonreal Will be interesting to see if we get another "higher high" this year on inventory levels

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

the seasonal floor for new listings is in -- February just turned the corner (as usual)

expect a significant jump in inventory over the next 2-3 months 📈

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

@AzizSunderji good read! donut theory makes sense.

I bet there's also a median age factor at play looking at these cities, older households want more living space but look to the suburbs

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

@AzizSunderji I have a guess... 👀

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

LA has the lowest rent-to-price ratio of any major metro at 0.31% monthly (3.7% annual)

Compare to the US at 0.53% monthly (6.4% annual)
or Chicago at 0.63% monthly (7.6% annual)

If you're buying for cash flow, look to Midwest and Southern markets

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

Fastest growing states over the past 5 years:

Idaho: +12.6%
Utah: +9.5%
Florida: +7.2%

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

Austin vs Nashville pullback trends since 2022 have been an interesting comparison case study

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

Keep an eye on population vs housing growth in your market - a disconnect is a strong leading indicator of an eventual pullback

Austin: +48% housing, +40% pop (since 2012) ➡️ home values -6.0% YoY
Nashville: +34% housing, +30% pop (since 2012) ➡️ home values -0.3% YoY

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

Keep an eye on population vs housing growth in your market - a disconnect is a strong leading indicator of an eventual pullback

Austin: +48% housing, +40% pop (since 2012) ➡️ home values -6.0% YoY
Nashville: +34% housing, +30% pop (since 2012) ➡️ home values -0.3% YoY

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

@AzizSunderji r/dataisbeautiful

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

Of course some other factors at play too... e.g. more inventory in the summer -> more pricing competition

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

Some seasonal housing market psychology:

Days on market reliably peaks in January
Price drop rate usually peaks end of summer

The winter slowdown is expected and sellers stay patient, but in the summer there's an implied sense of urgency to close

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

Some regions already seeing a post-winter rebound:

Atlanta: +6.1% MoM
Boston: +5.3% MoM
Indianapolis: +5.1% MoM
Austin: +2.1% MoM
Dallas: +1.2% MoM

Keep an eye on your local market 👀

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

US housing absorption hits 25.5% -- lowest since 2019

Down -2.7% MoM and -7.6% YoY 📉

Watch closely for February's (typical) seasonal rebound. Will be an important signal on outlook for the rest of the year.

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

Two important nuances here:

1) household size in the US is at an all time low (~2.5) so more demand per capita

2) geographic mismatch between where there is housing surplus and where people actually want to live

[Jon Brooks @jonbrooks]

Everyone keeps saying America has a “housing shortage.”

It doesn’t.

Divide total homes by population and you get this:
We’ve never had more housing per person than we do right now.

The problem isn’t supply.
It’s prices.

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

.... much more to come!

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

Digging into the latest @uscensusbureau ACS5 5-year data 👀

Some quick interesting findings...

Population change over the last decade: Houston leads at +24.8% compared to the US overall at +8.3% over the same period

[Property Forecast @prop4cast]

Owner occupied rates have continued downwards in expensive major metros...

But trending sharply upwards in some Sun Belt markets and slightly upwards in the US overall