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๐ฌ๐ญ Ghana - Panama ๐ต๐ฆ 1, 2.04 X, 3.58 2, 3.66
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England - Ghana ๐ฌ๐ญ 1, 1.295 X, 5.29 2, 8.61
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England - Panama ๐ต๐ฆ 1, 1.324 X, 6.55 2, 5.92
Ghana is obviously better than Panama so it makes no sense for England to be higher odds versus Panama except if the market is already pricing in the (1.72*1.30) 40% chance that England have already won the group when playing Panama and will rotate their squad.
In this group we've played Ghana to not Qualify @ 2.35 according to our simulations the correct odds is closer to 2.10
With that said, we don't think @ 6.90 is a reasonable price for Panama versus England, something is off unless the market is really pricing in England rotating in R3 - what do you think?
๐ฌ๐ญ Ghana - Panama ๐ต๐ฆ 1, 2.04 X, 3.58 2, 3.66
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England - Ghana ๐ฌ๐ญ 1, 1.295 X, 5.29 2, 8.61
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England - Panama ๐ต๐ฆ 1, 1.324 X, 6.55 2, 5.92
Ghana is obviously better than Panama so it makes no sense for England to be higher odds versus Panama except if the market is already pricing in the (1.72*1.30) 40% chance that England have already won the group when playing Panama and will rotate their squad.
In this group we've played Ghana to not Qualify @ 2.35 according to our simulations the correct odds is closer to 2.10
With that said, we don't think @ 6.90 is a reasonable price for Panama versus England, something is off unless the market is really pricing in England rotating in R3 - what do you think?
Panama vs England - World Cup 2026 โฝ๐
Panama has been dropping on Pinnacle since opening. From @ 14.63 all the way down to @ 6.90 currently.
๐ Polymarket @ 12.50 (+1150)
Is it coming home?
To reach โฝ๏ธ R16 where teams will not interfere with each other in R32 99 out of 100 simulations:
๐ช๐ธ๐ฉ๐ช๐ง๐ท๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ๐ง๐ช
๐ช๐ธ๐ฉ๐ช๐ง๐ท๐ต๐น๐ง๐ช (Best compared to what's offered dby the bookies, correct odds: 6.3)
๐ช๐ธ๐ฉ๐ช๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ๐ณ๐ฑ๐ง๐ช
๐ซ๐ท๐ง๐ท๐ฆ๐ท๐ง๐ช๐จ๐ด
As everyone can notice certain teams are not good to combine with each other (ex. Spain + Argentina)
So Bet365 have like 75-80 penalties in total, could expect 50 of those to be penalty shoot outs, giving us a range from 25-30 from B365 too depending on how you look at it.
Could also go the other way and say we're expecting a penalty in 30% of the games giving you a correct line around 30-32 penalties (0.3*104).
Like I mentioned it's not a market we have done a lot of research into, would need to come up with a more scientific number than penalty in 30% of the games to be able to calculate something correct here.
Top 8 Teams and likelihood to face each other before the Semis.
Standouts are ๐ช๐ธ Spain - Argentina ๐ฆ๐ท in the R32 (31.1%) and ๐ง๐ท Brazil - Netherlands ๐ณ๐ฑ (30.9%) together with ๐ซ๐ท France - Germany๐ฉ๐ช in R16 (33.2%).
If you want to bet on several top teams to reach the QFs here's some good* combinations: ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ๐ฆ๐ท๐ณ๐ฑ or ๐ซ๐ท๐ง๐ท๐ฆ๐ทor ๐ฆ๐ท๐ต๐น๐ณ๐ฑ or ๐ง๐ท๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ๐ฆ๐ท or ๐ง๐ท๐ฆ๐ท๐ต๐น or ๐ช๐ธ๐ง๐ท๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Good in this scenario does not mean +EV, just means that it's 3 teams that are not facing each other before the QFs in 99+/100 simulations.
"I usually trust bet365 on outrights totals calculation but i also understand is quite difficult calculate something without any recent historical data."
There's some small edges here and there, but in general the problem is when people parlay bets with negative correlations.
Regarding penalties we have not simulated for anything yet, what was the exact market you were looking to bet on?
For us betting is a game of numbers, we get that it does not need to be like that for everyone, just highlighting the fact that that when a bookie offers for example:
2x for Argentina to reach QF it's priced in that 30% of the times they reach the QF they've knocked out Spain.
For this bet to have "value" the bookie would have to boost your odds when they're negatively correlated.
According to our simulations the correct odds for this treble is 10x your money and you're only getting 5.81
@TheLumpJobpod@A6788C We have Spain - Argentina in R32 for 31% of our simulations, bookies will not boost your odds because of this negative correlation the bet is not very good.
@A6788C This is horrible unfortunately, bookies will make so much money from these kind of bets over time.
We have Spain - Argentina in R32 for 31% of our simulations.
Spain and Argentina will most likely face each other in Round of 32 if one of the teams fail to win the group, this happens around 25% of the time. So there's a 1 in 4 chance that the bet is dead instantly efter the group stages, this is not included in the odds you are getting from the bookie.
Do not combine negatively correlated bets, here you got 22/1 but the correct odds are closer to 56/1 (1.75%).
Skybet will happily take all the stake you can ever think of placing on bets like these.
@Lufc_81@Carl_F88 Very true, Argentina and Spain will play each other in R32 too in around 25% of all scenarios too... Very negative correlations here.