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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics
@propsdataio
β½οΈ Sports betting Software π¨βπ» π Visuals instead of boring numbers - statistics built for sports bettors π
Joined November 2024
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β½οΈ Paxten Aaronson Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 1.98
Correct odds according to the model closer to 1.50 and the usage models totally agree, can with pretty high confidence say that 1.98 is too high here. The Usage % have the worst case odds @ 1.65
β½οΈ Curtis Jones Over 0.5 Shots @ 1.92
Not a lot of data to use here but had 1+ shots in 3/4 for Inter where 3/4 have been substitute appearances. Other Inter midfielders are always priced lower than this odds, a mistake by Kambi due to small data sample!
β½οΈ Mitchell Van Bergen Over 2.5 Shots on Target @ 2.65
Covering this line 50%+ of the times at home in the Eredivisie, opponent ranked 13/18th in shots allowed and we have the correct odds around 1.63 according to the model and the usage model "corrects" this to 2.20 with the worst case around 2.90.
Meaning we pretty much have the chance here to take a bet @ 2.65 that probably have a fair odds around 2.0-2.20 and the worst case scenario is not bad at all. Close to EV +/-0 more or less.
Bet365 offers 1.50, 1.25, 1.53 for these bets where we are getting 1.98, 1.92, 2.65 a clear difference too even though Bet365's odds are just shit and much lower than fair odds here.
Found 3 bets on Kambi for this weekend in the Value Scanner, added to my spreadsheet directly in the application to track the performance.
Can be seen directly in the app if you follow us on our accounts, but let's share them here too?
Interested? Send us a DM!
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@K_u_n_g_e_n We think it's destructive to focus on things you have no control over. It takes time and energy away from actually beating the market. Upwards and onwards! π
Good resource.
If possible, use clv as (another) metric. Youβd need only around 100 bets to see where you standβ¦
Proud to be nr1 on the @propsdataio leaderboard!
Such a great tool for bettors nowadays and an efficient way of finding value on the market.
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This did not age well...
Altenar
Liverpool under 19.5 shots @ 1.81
A little too much love for Pool tonight... We're on this!
Altenar
Liverpool under 19.5 shots @ 1.81
A little too much love for Pool tonight... We're on this!
What are you guys betting on tonight's Champions League?
@BFosdahl We're definitely rooting for BodΓΈ!
What are you guys betting on tonight's Champions League?
Not enough luck with these longshots. Great value nonetheless!
That's why it's important to stake extremely small on high odds. They need time for the value to play out. Until then, you're just gambling.
With Alcaraz and Fils gone and both our players through, here are the new fair odds for our finalists.
Auger Aliassime @ 21 π 5.64 (17.7%)
Tsitsipas @ 67 π 11.11 (9%)
Round 3 has really shaken up the draw. We're looking at a couple of other outrights that have improved...
@potenzasunink Fair enough. How about "good bet"? π
Although I thought it closed a little lower than that. Didn't double check our database.
A great bet with CLV on a sharp market, but Felix got injured and retired.
Money back!
Casper Ruud - Felix Auger Aliassime
Auger Aliassime @ 1.78
Betsson group with the best odds available to us right now.
Felix is clearly stronger than Casper in our model. We expect to undervalue Ruud a little, but 1.78 gives us enough wiggle room. Should be well liked.
Did not age well in the drafts, weβll see if we have something more for tonight other than Osimhen ππ
6.50 B365 odds, not 4.50 ofc
Everyone on the Osimhen train πππ
β½οΈ Osimhen Over 1.5 SOT @ 2.62
β½οΈ Osimhen Over 2.5 SOT @ 4.50
Correct odds according to our numbers around 2.30, 5.50.
The normal model does not work very well in the Champions League as there's a very low sample size and teams face a very different quality of teams every year.
The normal model works when all teams face the same level of teams = league football.
Mostly looking at the usage model here which gives us correct odds around 2.30.
Anyone else on some bangers tonight? π£
@mrdamsholt Love that one!
And of course we're taking De Minaur @ 29 for the exact same reason...
ATP Shanghai outrights (Kambi)
Khachanov to win his quarter @ 7.50
Khachanov to win the tournament @ 34
Zverev eats up way to much of these outright percentages. We have Zverev @ 3.50 to win the tournament, and Khachanov @ 23 to win. Great value on this one! Low stake.
ATP Shanghai outrights (Kambi)
Khachanov to win his quarter @ 7.50
Khachanov to win the tournament @ 34
Zverev eats up way to much of these outright percentages. We have Zverev @ 3.50 to win the tournament, and Khachanov @ 23 to win. Great value on this one! Low stake.
All 8 matches are priced and somewhat settled. We ran a new simulation and found 2 high odds bets that have improved after some action came in on one of the remaining players...
Is anyone awake and ready for some picks? πΎ
@yttersidabom We're working on a lot of things at the moment. Please DM and describe the issue on here or on discord!
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