PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics

⚽️ Sports betting Software 👨‍💻 📊 Visuals instead of boring numbers - statistics built for sports bettors 🔞

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

⚽️ 700+ Bets
📊 20%+ ROI

We started this account when we launched our new website with statistics and tools tailored for sports betting.

It was never meant to be an account for sharing betting tips but while promoting and using our tools we've now shared over 700 bets and achieved a return of close to 100 units and 20%+ ROI.

We're adding a lot of new features to the application in the coming month that will help boosting these stats.

Send us a DM if you have any questions regarding the application, there's a 5 day free trial for all new users.

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

Smaller bets here and there or one large article with write ups for all bets?

Let's win some money together this World Cup 🏆

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

With so many bad outrights being posted it's only right for us to go and make up for this?

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

🇬🇭 Ghana - Panama 🇵🇦 1, 2.04 X, 3.58 2, 3.66

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England - Ghana 🇬🇭 1, 1.295 X, 5.29 2, 8.61
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England - Panama 🇵🇦 1, 1.324 X, 6.55 2, 5.92

Ghana is obviously better than Panama so it makes no sense for England to be higher odds versus Panama except if the market is already pricing in the (1.72*1.30) 40% chance that England have already won the group when playing Panama and will rotate their squad.

In this group we've played Ghana to not Qualify @ 2.35 according to our simulations the correct odds is closer to 2.10

With that said, we don't think @ 6.90 is a reasonable price for Panama versus England, something is off unless the market is really pricing in England rotating in R3 - what do you think?

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

🇬🇭 Ghana - Panama 🇵🇦 1, 2.04 X, 3.58 2, 3.66

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England - Ghana 🇬🇭 1, 1.295 X, 5.29 2, 8.61
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England - Panama 🇵🇦 1, 1.324 X, 6.55 2, 5.92

Ghana is obviously better than Panama so it makes no sense for England to be higher odds versus Panama except if the market is already pricing in the (1.72*1.30) 40% chance that England have already won the group when playing Panama and will rotate their squad.

In this group we've played Ghana to not Qualify @ 2.35 according to our simulations the correct odds is closer to 2.10

With that said, we don't think @ 6.90 is a reasonable price for Panama versus England, something is off unless the market is really pricing in England rotating in R3 - what do you think?

[ValueBetFactory @ValueBetFactory]

Panama vs England - World Cup 2026 ⚽🏆

Panama has been dropping on Pinnacle since opening. From @ 14.63 all the way down to @ 6.90 currently.

📚 Polymarket @ 12.50 (+1150)

Is it coming home?

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

@Dava711 @ 6.48 with Bet365, there's better opportunities out there but if you want a fun acca like this. The mentioned option was the best one!

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

To reach ⚽️ R16 where teams will not interfere with each other in R32 99 out of 100 simulations:

🇪🇸🇩🇪🇧🇷🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇧🇪

🇪🇸🇩🇪🇧🇷🇵🇹🇧🇪 (Best compared to what's offered dby the bookies, correct odds: 6.3)

🇪🇸🇩🇪🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇳🇱🇧🇪

🇫🇷🇧🇷🇦🇷🇧🇪🇨🇴

As everyone can notice certain teams are not good to combine with each other (ex. Spain + Argentina)

[A @amman_]

@propsdataio Class. And are there any 4 or 5 team combos if we did it based on reaching R16 rather than QF?

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

So Bet365 have like 75-80 penalties in total, could expect 50 of those to be penalty shoot outs, giving us a range from 25-30 from B365 too depending on how you look at it.

Could also go the other way and say we're expecting a penalty in 30% of the games giving you a correct line around 30-32 penalties (0.3*104).

Like I mentioned it's not a market we have done a lot of research into, would need to come up with a more scientific number than penalty in 30% of the games to be able to calculate something correct here.

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

Top 8 Teams and likelihood to face each other before the Semis.

Standouts are 🇪🇸 Spain - Argentina 🇦🇷 in the R32 (31.1%) and 🇧🇷 Brazil - Netherlands 🇳🇱 (30.9%) together with 🇫🇷 France - Germany🇩🇪 in R16 (33.2%).

If you want to bet on several top teams to reach the QFs here's some good* combinations: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇦🇷🇳🇱 or 🇫🇷🇧🇷🇦🇷or 🇦🇷🇵🇹🇳🇱 or 🇧🇷🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇦🇷 or 🇧🇷🇦🇷🇵🇹 or 🇪🇸🇧🇷🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Good in this scenario does not mean +EV, just means that it's 3 teams that are not facing each other before the QFs in 99+/100 simulations.

[A @amman_]

@propsdataio I see - are there any of the big boys that can’t face each other until round of 16, no matter what happens in the group?

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

@0xMattia7 What lines are you getting?

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

"I usually trust bet365 on outrights totals calculation but i also understand is quite difficult calculate something without any recent historical data."

There's some small edges here and there, but in general the problem is when people parlay bets with negative correlations.

Regarding penalties we have not simulated for anything yet, what was the exact market you were looking to bet on?

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

With so many bad outrights being posted it's only right for us to go and make up for this?

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

For us betting is a game of numbers, we get that it does not need to be like that for everyone, just highlighting the fact that that when a bookie offers for example:

2x for Argentina to reach QF it's priced in that 30% of the times they reach the QF they've knocked out Spain.

For this bet to have "value" the bookie would have to boost your odds when they're negatively correlated.

According to our simulations the correct odds for this treble is 10x your money and you're only getting 5.81

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

@TheLumpJobpod @A6788C We have Spain - Argentina in R32 for 31% of our simulations, bookies will not boost your odds because of this negative correlation the bet is not very good.

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

@A6788C This is horrible unfortunately, bookies will make so much money from these kind of bets over time.

We have Spain - Argentina in R32 for 31% of our simulations.

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

@OddspoddenNO @A6788C We have Spain - Argentina in R32 for 31% of our simulations.

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

Spain and Argentina will most likely face each other in Round of 32 if one of the teams fail to win the group, this happens around 25% of the time. So there's a 1 in 4 chance that the bet is dead instantly efter the group stages, this is not included in the odds you are getting from the bookie.

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

Do not combine negatively correlated bets, here you got 22/1 but the correct odds are closer to 56/1 (1.75%).

Skybet will happily take all the stake you can ever think of placing on bets like these.

[Carl @Carl_F88]

Trigger pulled

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

@Lufc_81 @Carl_F88 Very true, Argentina and Spain will play each other in R32 too in around 25% of all scenarios too... Very negative correlations here.

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

@baddar88 @Carl_F88 Yes, they can the bet is very negatively correlated. Fair odds around 56/1

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

@Calluml90265601 @Carl_F88 1 in 56 to happen so it's not a bet we would recommend anyone to tail, too negatively correlated.

[PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics @propsdataio]

@MRB1892 @Carl_F88 1 in 56 to happen so it's not a bet we would recommend anyone to tail, too negatively correlated.