Pluto Predicts

Pluto gazes into the Ethereum and agentic worlds

[Canonicals @canonicals_pro]

🚨Canonicals is live on Monad Mainnet.

Forecasting markets are now deployed and open for trading.

👉https://t.co/Nj4pqvCmwc

[BanZhuanAI @BanZhuanAI]

Starting today Banzhuan users can directly access
@edgeX_exchange. Our no-code agentic community has now integrated with four different venues. Watch this space for upcoming tutorials.

https://t.co/jw8Ogf1N8S

[BanZhuanAI @BanZhuanAI]

Users can now access @Polymarket on BanZhuan AI. This is the third integration, stay tuned for more.

https://t.co/u9JVj60dlR

[Deden @Dedenwrg]

https://t.co/9mr9OjV2yU

[Hyperliquid @HyperliquidX]

HyperCore will support outcome trading (HIP-4). Outcomes are fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range. They are a general-purpose primitive that are useful for applications such as prediction markets and bounded options-like instruments. There has been extensive user demand in both of these areas, and builders will likely think of novel applications as well.

Outcomes bring non-linearity, dated contracts, and an alternative form of derivative trading that does not involve leverage or liquidations. The outcome primitive expands the expressivity of HyperCore, while composing with other primitives such as portfolio margin and the HyperEVM.

Outcomes are a work in progress and currently only being tested on testnet. Canonical markets based on objective settlement sources will be deployed once technical development is complete. Canonical markets will be denominated in USDH. Pending user feedback, the infrastructure will be extended to permissionless deployment.

[키티 캐피탈 @Kitty_Capital_]

It’s my pure speculation, but if Polymarket wants their own chain, they’ll likely consider a rollup using Celestia. They won't play the Ethereum alignment game.

[Todd Phillips @tphillips]

I just filed an amicus brief in Kalshi's lawsuit against Maryland, arguing that the sports-related contracts Kalshi lists are unlikely to be commodity derivatives, such that the CFTC does not have "exclusive jurisdiction" over them and Maryland's gaming laws are not preempted. 1/

[Matthew Green @matthew_d_green]

@VitalikButerin @Istvan_A_Seres I disagree with this. General-purpose ZK sucks and if the application-specific things were much better, we’d be using them everywhere. Example: Bowe-Hopwood-Pedersen commitments everywhere. But accumulators just happen to sit in the bad place where trees have better properties.

[Dustin Gouker @DustinGouker]

This is amazing. Kalshi might be putting up markets for college players entering the transfer portal. If a player tweets that he's entering the portal and then changes his mind soon after, that still counts!

10/10, no notes. what an amazing asset class

[The Block @TheBlockCo]

Bitcoin sees one-year low in active addresses, raising fresh concerns over blockspace demand https://t.co/xBmZiaEF0V

[Wu Blockchain @WuBlockchain]

Ethereum consensus client Prysm released a post-mortem on the Dec. 4 Fusaka mainnet incident, attributing the outage to resource exhaustion caused by costly state recomputation when processing certain attestations. The issue led to 41 missed epochs, network participation dropping to 75%, and validator reward losses of about 382 ETH. A temporary fix was applied via a runtime flag, followed by permanent changes to attestation validation logic in versions v7.0.1 and v7.1.0.
https://t.co/JQVP8cENHm

[The Block @TheBlockCo]

CFTC rolls back 2020 guidance focused on 'actual delivery' of digital assets https://t.co/Hc0YbeJeNh

[Alfonso Straffon 🇨🇷🇺🇸🇲🇽 @astraffon]

"Kalshi and Crypto. com will announce Thursday that they have convened an alliance to create the Washington, D.C.-based Coalition for Prediction Markets."

+ Robinhood, Coinbase, and Underdog

Prediction markets launch coalition amid sports betting fight https://t.co/iYdPFWfhU7

[Tarun Chitra @tarunchitra]

Did @HyperliquidX autodeleverage (ADL) $650m of PNL that it didn’t have to?

Was this 28x more than the minimal necessary?

Did almost every exchange (incl. @binance) copy-pasta a Huobi heuristic from 2015?

Can we do better in 2026?

𝐘𝐞𝐬 (+ a new paper)

[Tyrael @0xTyrael]

This is also one of the most insane headlines I've seen in a while

[Richard Turrin @richardturrin]

Visa: Stablecoins face a revenue cliff under new global rules.

Visa with a great read that shows how many seem to have overlooked that stablecoin revenue is dependent on the short end of the yield curve in a reducing rate environment.

• US/EU/HK mandates: 1:1 liquid assets, reduce rates due to short-dated assets will squeeze yields. (maturities capped at 93 days US )

• Rates to 2-4% by 2027? Issuers lose 25% income overnight

• Circle's 99% yield reliance? $441M gutted by a minor rate dip, 25% of total revenue.

• Citi: $30B revenues by 2029 if supply hits $1.6T Yields ↓ volume ↑ to compensate?

One chart inside just broke my model (last chart, revenue estimates are 80% growth dependent!) →

#fintech #tech #finserv #AI
@BetaMoroney
@efipm @BrettKing
@spirosmargaris
@jasuja
@enricomolinari
@mikeflache
#CBDC #FinTech #FinServ
@efipm @Kiffmeister @sonjadav @Jonas__Gross @conrad_kraft @JoshuaLipsky

https://t.co/00j0ApwCvB

[storm @notnotstorm]

found a pretty major data bug

it turns out almost every major dashboard has been double-counting Polymarket volume (not related to wash trading)

this is because Polymarket's onchain data contains redundant representations of each trade. receipts ⬇️⬇️

[CoinDesk @CoinDesk]

Read the full story from @HeleneBraunn:

https://t.co/Hojm5zz2r0

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

We need a good trustless onchain gas futures market.

(Like, a prediction market on the BASEFEE)

I've heard people ask: "today fees are low, but what about in 2 years? You say they'll stay low because of increasing gaslimit from BAL + ePBS + later ZK-EVM, but do I believe you?"

An onchain gas futures market would help solve this: people would get a clear signal of people's expectations of future gas fees, and would even be able to hedge against future gas prices, effectively prepaying for any specific quantity of gas in a specific time interval.