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@whyvert The UN is getting weirder in some ways. Just 1 example, overstating developed countries such as USA by over 100K relative to its own statistics whilst aligning with what East Asian countries put out. Similar on life expectancy. Overall, overstating global births I think.

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@BirthGauge This 2024 release is worse than I though it would be, they seem to have made no improvements since 2022. They still seem to use 1.7 TFR as their magic attractor in 2100 and have optimistic increases in life expectancy more than the existing trends would indicate.

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@BirthGauge Update on Japan https://t.co/plwk8hjb2c

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@DH_1997_ @BirthGauge For 2023 medium is 2.14 and low is 1.89.

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@DH_1997_ @BirthGauge UN 2022 medium forecast is 2.16 and low forecast is 1.91.

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@DigitalPsyche @SteveStuWill Well 2 things, best methods for teaching something to assist understanding of the material being taught and long term memory retention of material taught.

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@BirthGauge UN med. forecast has Benin at 4.68 in 2025, so bit ahead of UN forecast. Low scenario was 4.65 in 2022

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@SteveStuWill You write the "best" teaching methods are for everyone. But what are the best teaching methods? What evidence shows what works best?

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@aicezuki123 @BirthGauge Is this some king of registration effect or zodiac thing?

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@BirthGauge @ComteWasRight @nonebusinesshey @TFR_Tracker So do you think the UN historical data is pretty reliable when it differs a bit from the figures given in these surveys?

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@BirthGauge @ComteWasRight @nonebusinesshey @TFR_Tracker So it's a 3 year average?

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@ComteWasRight @TFR_Tracker @BirthGauge It states the survey was taken in late 2022 and early 2023 though.

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@ComteWasRight @Alexey_Raksha @BirthGauge Birthgauge had previously calculated the Global replacement rate for 2021 at 2.18. Might be a bit less now as youth mortality rates generally fall and countries with anti-female sex selective abortion generally see that diminish in recent years. So 2.2 would be a bit above.

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@Charles2000_888 @kimchipump 0.78 was for the year 2022, 0.87 was for Q1 2022 and 0.81 was for Q1 2023. TFR falls so fast in S.K. that Q1 is a good bit higher than Q4 of the same year, so it is higher than the year average.

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@Annatar_I @BirthGauge When they finalise the births in Japan and exclude overseas births etc from the initial No. they put out, confident Japan will have more than 2 deaths per birth in 2022.

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@Carlos19001880 @BirthGauge Base case peak under 9Bn in 2046 and by 2100 7.3 Bn.. Lowest est. goes to 3 Bn by 2100. World pop. in 1960 was 3 Bn though median age was 21. If 3Bn by 2100, not sure about median age, but could be closer to 60.

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@EvilVizier @BirthGauge As there is no recorded precedent, it's really just a wait and see, how low can it go? That question is just being answered now.

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@presentbias @lymanstoneky Actually found his tweet, it's a little different from what I remembered:- https://t.co/PV2YBg8MJp

[Birth Gauge @BirthGauge]

Using the UN WPP 2022 as a base and including all other fertility data available, I recalculated the global TFR. It stood at 2.24 kids per woman in 2022, still slightly above the replacement level of 2.18. Humanity will likely fall below replacement in a few years.

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@presentbias @lymanstoneky Birthgauge calculated a global figure for 2021 based on UN 2022 report data of 2.18 Global Replacement Rate versus 2.3 GTFR, so growth of 0.12 or about 5.5% per generation. Also look at the UN statistics, they don't give a GRR but do show the net reproduction rates.