Tyler Flowers among catchers as a Brave in 1,381 PA (74 games/season):
-5th in fWAR
-4th in fWAR/650
-+49 framing runs(2nd)
-+29 FRV(7th)
- 12th in WRC+(102)
One of the most underrated Braves of the last 20 years. Elite framer with above average bat; just dont mention the arm
Is Johnathan Aranda the most underrated hitter in baseball? Last two seasons:
644 PA
3.6 WAR
141 WRC+
11.0% BB#
12.2 barrel%
.376 xwOBA
Hits the ball hard with good contact numbers. Puts the ball in the air. Him, Yandy, and Caminero is an elite trio
By the numbers not the best start for Martin but we’ll take it. vs WSN (5/24)
5.2 IP
1 ER
2K/2BB
4.90 xFIP
5.89 xERA
50.0% GB%
2 Barrels/7 HH
5 % whiff%
15% chase%
88 stuff+
84 pitching+
Zero whiffs on non-fastballs. Only 2 whiffs overall. Better to be lucky than good I guess
Another encouraging outing from Holmes vs WSN (5/23):
5.0 IP
2 ER
10K/2 BB
1.41 xFIP
3.91xERA
40% GB%
3 barrels/6 HH
41% chase%
38% CSW%
88 stuff+
79 pitching+
Season high in K’s and bitten by two solo shots. Slider was popping (48 whiff%, 41 chase%). 3.78 xERA over last 3 GS
All-star Elder is back. But can it continue? Let’s take a look. In 68 IP:
1.97 ERA
3.74 xFIP
2.98 xERA
100%ile pitcher run value
7.86 K/9
2.75 BB/9
3.7 barrel%
86 stuff+
93 pitching+
Elder had a career 4.71 xERA before this season because he’s limiting good BB events
The biggest change to Elder’s arsenal is adding a cutter to use against lefties (4.69 xFIP against lefties vs 3.57 against righties)
11.6 pitch%
3.3 RV/100
85%ile ICR%
Only a 82 stuff+ pitch but if you don’t have great stuff (especially fastballs), throw a lot of pitches.
Projections have Elder around average for the rest of the year in ERA and FIP. Even if he is only average this season has been a major success. He’s only making 700k and producing better than options the team had in free agency. Let’s hope he doesn’t crater like ‘23.
Still lineups should generally go:
1. Best OPB/BB%
2. Best hitter
3. 5th best
4. Best power/3rd best
5. 4th best
6. 6th best
7. 7th best
8. 8th best
9. 9th best
One of Walt’s better lineups. I would do:
Acuna
Olson
Albies
MH2
Riley
Dom
Dubon
Yaz
Trump
Though 5th might be too important of a spot for a struggling Riley to be in
The funny thing is that lineup construction doesn’t really affect run scoring that much. It matters but more in the sense that your best hitters should be higher to get more ABs and vice versa. The difference between Olson batting 1-4 is nor major
Elder All-star run marches on vs WSN (5/22):
6 IP
1 ER
4K/1BB
3.90 xFIP
2.62 xERA
52.6% GB%
1 barrel/8 HH
30% whiff%
40% chase%
87 stuff+
104 pitching+
If Elder can keep getting GBs and hover around average K%, we are golden. Yet BABIP (.229) luck comes for everybody…
Strider looked solid vs MIA (5/21):
6.1 IP
3 ER
9K/2BB
2.76 xFIP
2.21 xERA
41.7% GB%
2 Barrels/5 HH
31% whiff%
31% chase%
106 stuff+
105 pitching+
Big stuff jumps from Spencer. Fastball IVB was up and had a 113 stuff+. All 3 of his secondaries were generating strikes.
These improvements have given Mike an elite batted ball profile:
92%ile xwOBA
97%ile xBA
96%ile xSLG
98%ile HH%
His 135 WRC+ has actually been unlucky. Projections have around a 115 guy the rest of the way but I think he can continue to be a 125 WRC+ bat.
Why has Michael Harris II been so good? The answer: maximizing his power. He’s always had elite bad speed but this year is at a career high (75 MPH). Mike is pulling more balls in the air then ever (15.4%) while minimizing his pulled GB% (career low 15%)
Another Sale gem vs MIA (5/20):
7 IP
1 ER
8K/0BB
1.83 xFIP
2.09 SIERA
41.2% GB%
0 Barrels/5 HH
37% whiff%
45% chase%
No stuff metrics out yet but Sale is dominate again (elite 38% CSW%). Has a 1.70 ERA and 3.84 xERA over his last 7 starts
With Bummer getting released, Dylan Dodd might become one of Atlantas more important relievers.
Last two years (39 IP):
3.16 SIERA
3.29 xERA
83 xFIP-
50.5 GB%
7.85 K/9
1.38 BB/9
28.3 CSW%
103 stuff+
Elite slider. Added sinker and improved cutter. Big stuff coming?