Patrick Russell

Tyler Flowers Biggest Fan
UW Madison

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

Tyler Flowers among catchers as a Brave in 1,381 PA (74 games/season):
-5th in fWAR
-4th in fWAR/650
-+49 framing runs(2nd)
-+29 FRV(7th)
- 12th in WRC+(102)

One of the most underrated Braves of the last 20 years. Elite framer with above average bat; just dont mention the arm

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

Is Johnathan Aranda the most underrated hitter in baseball? Last two seasons:

644 PA
3.6 WAR
141 WRC+
11.0% BB#
12.2 barrel%
.376 xwOBA

Hits the ball hard with good contact numbers. Puts the ball in the air. Him, Yandy, and Caminero is an elite trio

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

By the numbers not the best start for Martin but we’ll take it. vs WSN (5/24)

5.2 IP
1 ER
2K/2BB
4.90 xFIP
5.89 xERA

50.0% GB%
2 Barrels/7 HH
5 % whiff%
15% chase%
88 stuff+
84 pitching+

Zero whiffs on non-fastballs. Only 2 whiffs overall. Better to be lucky than good I guess

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

Another encouraging outing from Holmes vs WSN (5/23):

5.0 IP
2 ER
10K/2 BB
1.41 xFIP
3.91xERA

40% GB%
3 barrels/6 HH
41% chase%
38% CSW%
88 stuff+
79 pitching+

Season high in K’s and bitten by two solo shots. Slider was popping (48 whiff%, 41 chase%). 3.78 xERA over last 3 GS

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

*career 4.69 xFIP against lefties vs 3.57 against righties

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

All-star Elder is back. But can it continue? Let’s take a look. In 68 IP:

1.97 ERA
3.74 xFIP
2.98 xERA
100%ile pitcher run value

7.86 K/9
2.75 BB/9
3.7 barrel%
86 stuff+
93 pitching+

Elder had a career 4.71 xERA before this season because he’s limiting good BB events

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

The biggest change to Elder’s arsenal is adding a cutter to use against lefties (4.69 xFIP against lefties vs 3.57 against righties)

11.6 pitch%
3.3 RV/100
85%ile ICR%

Only a 82 stuff+ pitch but if you don’t have great stuff (especially fastballs), throw a lot of pitches.

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

Projections have Elder around average for the rest of the year in ERA and FIP. Even if he is only average this season has been a major success. He’s only making 700k and producing better than options the team had in free agency. Let’s hope he doesn’t crater like ‘23.

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

Still lineups should generally go:

1. Best OPB/BB%
2. Best hitter
3. 5th best
4. Best power/3rd best
5. 4th best
6. 6th best
7. 7th best
8. 8th best
9. 9th best

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

One of Walt’s better lineups. I would do:

Acuna
Olson
Albies
MH2
Riley
Dom
Dubon
Yaz
Trump

Though 5th might be too important of a spot for a struggling Riley to be in

[Atlanta Braves @Braves]

City Connect Saturday!

#BravesCountry

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

The funny thing is that lineup construction doesn’t really affect run scoring that much. It matters but more in the sense that your best hitters should be higher to get more ABs and vice versa. The difference between Olson batting 1-4 is nor major

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

Elder All-star run marches on vs WSN (5/22):

6 IP
1 ER
4K/1BB
3.90 xFIP
2.62 xERA

52.6% GB%
1 barrel/8 HH
30% whiff%
40% chase%
87 stuff+
104 pitching+

If Elder can keep getting GBs and hover around average K%, we are golden. Yet BABIP (.229) luck comes for everybody…

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

Will always remember the Chadwick tromp night

[Atlanta Braves @Braves]

WALK. IT. OFF!

#BravesCountry

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

Strider looked solid vs MIA (5/21):

6.1 IP
3 ER
9K/2BB
2.76 xFIP
2.21 xERA

41.7% GB%
2 Barrels/5 HH
31% whiff%
31% chase%
106 stuff+
105 pitching+

Big stuff jumps from Spencer. Fastball IVB was up and had a 113 stuff+. All 3 of his secondaries were generating strikes.

[Atlanta Braves @Braves]

What a night for @MoneyyyMikeee 🤑

@Delta | #BravesCountry

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

These improvements have given Mike an elite batted ball profile:

92%ile xwOBA
97%ile xBA
96%ile xSLG
98%ile HH%

His 135 WRC+ has actually been unlucky. Projections have around a 115 guy the rest of the way but I think he can continue to be a 125 WRC+ bat.

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

Why has Michael Harris II been so good? The answer: maximizing his power. He’s always had elite bad speed but this year is at a career high (75 MPH). Mike is pulling more balls in the air then ever (15.4%) while minimizing his pulled GB% (career low 15%)

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

Another Sale gem vs MIA (5/20):

7 IP
1 ER
8K/0BB
1.83 xFIP
2.09 SIERA

41.2% GB%
0 Barrels/5 HH
37% whiff%
45% chase%

No stuff metrics out yet but Sale is dominate again (elite 38% CSW%). Has a 1.70 ERA and 3.84 xERA over his last 7 starts

[Patrick Russell @pruss4918]

With Bummer getting released, Dylan Dodd might become one of Atlantas more important relievers.
Last two years (39 IP):

3.16 SIERA
3.29 xERA
83 xFIP-

50.5 GB%
7.85 K/9
1.38 BB/9
28.3 CSW%
103 stuff+

Elite slider. Added sinker and improved cutter. Big stuff coming?