PSDLAF

In 1982, PSDLAF was created specifically to assist Schools and Municipal Entities in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania to help manage their investment needs.

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

JUST IN: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates 0.25. The new benchmark interest rate is 4.5 to 4.75%. That's the lowest rate since early 2023.

All committee members supported the move.

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

JUST IN: A strong jobs report. The US economy added 254,000 jobs in September. That’s way above expectations and a nice bounce from 159,000 in August. (Both July & August revised up)

Unemployment rate: 4.1%. (Down from 4.2% in August)

Wages: +4% in past year (vs. 2.5% inflation)

[Federal Reserve @federalreserve]

Federal Open Market Committee statement: https://t.co/WdWoB5Wf7M #FOMC

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

#FOMC updated quarterly summary of economic projections (SEP), raising median projection for unemployment at end of 2024 to 4.4% (from 4% in June), representing increase from current level of 4.2%; median forecast for inflation at end of 2024 declined to 2.3%; median projection for economic growth ticked down to 2%; don't see inflation returning to 2% target until 2026; increase in 
projection for long-run fed funds rate to 2.9% from 2.8%

[PSDLAF @psdlaf]

RT @byHeatherLong: JUST IN: Federal Reserve cuts interest rates 50 bps, the first rate cut since 2020.
The new interest rate target is 4.75…

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

JUST IN: A solid jobs report. The US added 142,000 jobs in August. That’s just below expectations of ~160k and a decent rebound from 89,000 jobs in July.

The unemployment rate fell back to 4.2% (down from 4.3% in July)

Wages: +3.8% in past year (well above 2.9% inflation)

Bottom line: The job market has cooled off a lot and there a clear warning signs, but a “soft landing” is still very possible.

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

JUST IN: A really weak July jobs report. The US economy added only 114,000 jobs in July (well below forecasts)

Unemployment rate hits 4.3% —> Highest since October 2021 and this triggers the Sahm Rule recession indicator.

Wage growth: 3.6% (vs. 3% inflation)

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Revision for U.S. GDP brought growth up to +1.4% (q/q ann.) in 1Q2024; prior read was +1.3%

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

JUST IN: The Federal Reserve predicts just ONE rate cut in 2024.

4 of the 19 Fed leaders predict NO CUTS
7 of the 19 Fed leaders forecast 1 cut
8 of the 19 forecast 2 cuts

[PSDLAF @psdlaf]

A great celebration (kick off) with dearest of friends and family last night for @CEPJR! It was a pleasure to be a part of this fantastic retirement (almost) party! Congratulations Chuck!!!

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

Fed Chair Powell summary today:
1) A rate hike is very unlikely
2) His base case is to cut rates later this year, but it’s not a given
3) No sign of stagflation
4) 3% inflation is not acceptable

#Fed #economy

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

JUST IN: The US economy grew 1.6% in Q1. That’s solid, but it’s a clear slowdown from 3.4% in Q4.

Consumption moderated a little bit. Biz investment was still solid. ***But the biggest change was a slowdown in exports and government spending***

Q1 2024: 1.6%
Q4 2023: 3.4%
Q3 4.9%
Q2 2.1%
Q1 2.2%
Q4 2022: 2.6%
Q3: 2.7%

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

*FED SWAPS SHIFT FULL PRICING OF RATE CUT TO SEPTEMBER FROM JULY

#jobs

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

JUST IN: Another blockbuster month for jobs. The US economy added 303,000 jobs in March — way above expectations. The big gains were healthcare (72k) and gov’t (71k).

Unemployment rate: 3.8% (vs 3.9% in Feb)

Wage growth: 4.1% in past year (well above 3.2% inflation)

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

Good news -- US Consumer sentiment has surged since the fall. Americans believe inflation is getting back under control and their personal finance are improving.

"Sentiment is currently about 30% above November 2023 and about 6% below its historical average since 1978."
(From University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment)

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Federal Reserve officials maintained their outlook for three 25bps cuts this year but forecast fewer cuts than before in 2025 following uptick in inflation; decision was unanimous; fed funds rate remains in range of 5.25% to 5.5% (highest since 2001, for fifth straight meeting)

[PSDLAF @psdlaf]

Another great ⁦conference! Thank you ⁦@pasbo_org⁩ for all that you do! https://t.co/oVgWjZwaI6

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

Strong hiring in February (+275,000 jobs added) especially in healthcare and gov't.

Healthcare +67,000
Gov't +52,000
Restaurants +42,000
Social aid +24,000
Construction +23,000
Retail +19,000
Couriers +17,000
Professional Biz +9,000

Manufacturing -4,000
Temp help -15,000

[PSDLAF @psdlaf]

Congratulations to Wanda Erb, Matt Przwara, and Bob Reger- Gary Reeser Award Recipients!!!

@wandaerb @SDoL_CFO

[PSDLAF @psdlaf]

@jeff_mummert @pasbo_org @brptlp24 @DianeJRichards1 announcing the candidates for election.

[PSDLAF @psdlaf]

Proud to be a part of this amazing conference @pasbo_org

[PSDLAF @psdlaf]

@jeff_mummert @pasbo_org @brptlp24 providing an update during the first General Session!