Jacob

Con Man・Exile・Wrestler・Patriarch

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@AdjustedHockey @DailyFaceoff Ya, I would give that more credit except Malkin probably had a better regular season and playoffs than Crosby that year, and that’s how Hart/Smythe voters saw it

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@AdjustedHockey @DailyFaceoff Not sure of the exact relationship between GSAx and PDO but both will be highly influenced by luck in the short term (e.g. 4-7 games). People love building narratives to explain sports results, but in hockey especially, there’s just a lot of randomness involved

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@AdjustedHockey @ThePHWA Fair point about the value of defending but +/- is a very noisy metric. MacK’s EV PDO is 105.4 and McD’s is 99.2! And if you value preventing goals you should credit 97’s penalty killing too. Personally I’d pick Kuch for Lindsay and McD for Hart. But it’s close.

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@domluszczyszyn Wait, they’re actually going to start Binnington? That’s insane

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@daveyghee There will be no dawn for Benn.

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@AdjustedHockey @DailyFaceoff Esposito would look pretty good on this chart. Curious why he scores just 11 for “awards” in your system?

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@NHLGoldenEra Nice graphics. I’d suggest removing the brackets, as the colour effectively differentiates the text. Brackets just add clutter

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@AdjustedHockey @DailyFaceoff I looked at cup winners’ Sv% a few years back with a similar conclusion: you don’t need great goaltending, but it has to be at least average - 2009 being the only exception (pre-Kuemper). Also interesting to look at individual series - impossible to advance with PDO too low

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@AdjustedHockey @NHL @DailyFaceoff Great article. But to my eye, the drop in PPs per game is mostly due to laxer enforcement, not improved discipline. Calling obstruction tighter would increase both PP and EV scoring and let the stars shine.

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@Woodguy55 I remember reading years ago that goalies considered “streaky” or “consistent” actually had very similar distributions of better and worse games. In fact, they weren’t much different from a hypothetical robot that had (say) a 92% chance of saving every shot.

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@AdjustedHockey @DailyFaceoff As your biggest critic, I found this article interesting and informative! That said, “free points” is an overstatement, and ENGs do help your team win - just less on average than other goals. Would like a stat that weighs them less (not 0) like some do for 2nd assists

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@AdjustedHockey Wow, I didn’t realize I’m your top critic! I do appreciate the project, and knowing you’re well aware of my critique, I will try not to keep harping on it. But I think I’ve said that before 🙂

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@AdjustedHockey I maintain that roster size adjustment is a de facto timeline penalty that tells us no one was very good at hockey in the 40s and 50s. I’d prefer an explicit timeline penalty so readers understand the assumption. But glad to see Howe higher anyways.

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@AdjustedHockey Well I’m interested! I’m sure the people who enjoy combing through your lists will appreciate more info about this, especially where your thinking has changed

[Jacob @pseudepigrapher]

@AdjustedHockey @DailyFaceoff Ah ya, the 1920s were weird. I would like to see where Howe and other stars of the Original 6 rank. I think HR’s adjustments sell them short