Puckmarks

Attempting to make hockey easier to understand through analytics

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

It’s clear that one of Tocchet or Michkov have to go. They are not compatible with each other, end of story.

If you want Tocchet so badly, trade Michkov before his shooting regresses.

He will likely become a star somewhere else, but you’ve made your bed already.

#LetsGoFlyers

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

@caniacbrainiac Top 3 guys in their position if they provide half of a win over the next closest to them.

In other words, it’s become the McDavid/MacKinnon/Draisaitl tier with some occasional guest appearances.

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

Good lord. Imagine Jackson Blake with a good shot.

$5.1 million for 8 years man.

#CarolinaCulture

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

Not a great start for #1 and #2 Overall in the draft.

At 5v5, both McKenna and Stenberg haven’t shown that they’re truly NHL calibre yet and have plenty to work on.

Not every rookie can be Celebrini or Schaefer. No rush.

#Leafs
#SJSharks

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

Shane Wright traded for Matthew Wood.

Nashville definitely upgrades defensively, Wright is much more responsible than Wood.

Seattle gets more offence if Wood can get back to shooting like he did last season. Both with slow starts this year.

#Preds
#SeaKraken

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

Nikita Kucherov has requested a trade from the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Breaking barriers by asking out of an American market with a winning culture, great weather and favourable tax situation.

I can’t even believe it. He’s going for an absolute bag.

#GoBolts

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

Your homegrown star ends up being a bad captain.

He demands a trade from his dysfunctional team, which has missed playoffs for 10 years straight, has no GM, and won’t even sign their RFA who paid for his own insurance to be at camp.

Larkin saga is a complete disaster.

#LGRW

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

$3 million seems fair for Nikishin, even if he’s brutal defensively. Drives play offensively and can score goals. Ultimately it’s time for him to prove himself.

#CarolinaCulture

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

New Jersey gets arguably the best goalie in the league. Best regular season goalie of the 2020s for sure.

The combination of age, a down year and missing training camp does introduce some risk, but definitely the best bet if you need a goalie right now.

#NJDevils

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

David Perron is really a smart pickup for the Dallas Stars. Incredible defensive metrics last season. No way he should have been unsigned for so long.

#TexasHockey

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

The Leafs definitely shouldn’t expect much from Aatu Raty. Might be a good Marlie but that’s about it at this point.

#Leafs

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

Debrincat is definitely worth his $13 million extension. Reliable elite 40 goal guy over the last two seasons and has had a great start so far.

Good business by Detroit.

#LGRW

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

Truly horrible for Shesterkin to miss the entire season. Thought the Rangers had a really good chance to make the playoffs, yet subtracting a guy like this is just so costly.

Maybe they can rally around this, but this is probably too brutal of a loss. Terrible for Igor.

#NYR

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

A 2nd round pick is definitely way too much to pay to get Jayden Struble. 3rd pair guy around replacement-level.

Not sure why Nashville is so high on him.

#Preds
#GoHabsGo

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

Very surprised a team didn’t pick up Bunting sooner. Has had success playing on all 4 lines and passes well. $1.2 million is a good deal for Philly.

#LetsGoFlyers

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

Connor Zary is coming off of a replacement-level season, but is still worth a claim for a rebuilding team. Nothing to lose here except money if he doesn’t progress.

Bizarre to see Calgary give up on a 25 year old instead of trying to build his value.

#Flames

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

Here is the model’s final standings projection based on Player WAR. Last year it did quite well at 11.01 points error on average so I didn’t tweak it much.

Atlantic is a toss-up if we’re being real. Central is top-heavy.

IMO the model overrates SEA and underrates NYI the most.

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

Matthew Knies vs Kirill Marchenko.

No doubt Marchenko is the better player right now. Knies has been surrounded by better talent and has put up worse results. Neither are good defensively.

Leafs get a direct upgrade up front, Columbus gets younger and cheaper.

#Leafs
#CBJ

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

Nick Blankenburg seems like a good bet for the Leafs and probably deserves the minutes they were otherwise going to give Stecher. Seems to provide more value in every aspect 5v5.

#LeafsForever

[Puckmarks @puckmarks]

It’s no secret that Fantilli isn’t worth $13.75 million yet, but Columbus seemed to really have no choice here. Going to need improvement all-around for him to be worth this bag.

#CBJ