Pufferfish Finance

Undervalued stock dives. Stock news. Speculative plays. Super long dated option seller. Newsletter launching soon.

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

$NBIS & $MSFT's 17.4bn Partnership

I'm not one to chase hype, and I'm usually a contrarian investor, but I don't think I can ignore $NBIS here.

Even at $100, the $MSFT partnership changes things significantly. I was running the numbers earlier and the more I look at it, the more $NBIS feels undervalued still.

At $100, $NBIS trades at ~24bn MC. Prior to the $MSFT partnership, it traded at $64, ~15bn MC, which represents a ~15x projected 2025 ARR.

The $MSFT partnership adds roughly 3.5bn of revenue per year for 5 years. Even if we assume no further growth on projected ARR of 1bn, $NBIS will have 4.5bn in ARR projected for 2026.

At $100, this is only ~5x of projected ARR, 3 times lower than the original multiple it was trading at. Crazy right? This doesn't even account for growth in 2026, and any other successful partnerships and clients.

But we're not done yet. Let's go even deeper.

The $MSFT partnership of $17.4bn assumes a yearly revenue of $3.5bn for $NBIS. From industry averages, clients usually pay $6-$9 per MW. This implies $MSFT is contracting 350-400 MW per year (assumed).

$NBIS now has 100 MW of capacity, and looks to expand to 1GW by 2026, which means they can deliver the capacity demanded.

Further, this also means they will have additional capacity to "sell" to other clients, potentially boosting even more revenue, as the CEO has hinted at.

As for funding the CAPEX, $NBIS is already intending to spend 2bn in 2025, and will utilise cash and debt secured against the contract. Their cash position is relatively healthy so liquidity should not be too much of a concern.

With $MSFT now onboard as a Tier 1 AI infra player, $NBIS is increasing their market share and the partnership provides solid cash flow through 2031.

Fair value of $NBIS seems to be above $200 in 2026, so this feels like a no brainer today.

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

$QXO is Jacobs’ 8th act, and he’s aiming to reshape a $800B building products industry. Will his plan work again this time?

Condensing it all into one page as always here:

- The Playbook: Jacobs has delivered 300x returns across 500+ acquisitions ($URI 200x, $XPO 50x)
- Big Move: $11B Beacon Roofing acquisition → now #1 roofing distributor in NA
- Early Wins: Q2 beat rev/EPS, GM +11.6%, EBITDA margin ahead of consensus
- Tech Edge: AI pricing, digital ERP/CRM, inventory optimization → unlocks $200M+ “price leakage”
- Goal: $50B revenue by 2034 + $1.5B cost savings by 2027
- War Chest: $5.1B cash → ready for more acquisitions
- Risks: Heavy integration work, cyclical exposure, $HD / $LOW competing for targets

This is Jacobs’ latest value-creation machine. Let's see if he can deliver on his promises.

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

$OSCR is rewriting health insurance with tech, and it’s finally turning profitable, which is a huge deal.

Some key points to note:
- Scale: 1.8M members (+42% YoY), $9.6B rev run rate
- Q2 Beat: $2.35B rev (+65% YoY), adj. EBITDA +$15M (first ever)
- Tech Edge: Oscar+ triage ↓ ER visits 18% + predictive underwriting ↓ MLR to 84%
- Partnerships: UHC (200 sites), Amazon Health (Prime telehealth), 10 national employers onboard
- Path to Profitability: Full-year adj. EBITDA positive, FCF breakeven early 2026
- Financial Strength: $1.2B cash + combined ratio <95% → first underwriting profit
- Tailwinds: $900B market shifting digital-first + supportive CMS innovation waivers

Defensive sector + tech moat + margin expansion = slow & steady compounding play.

Would you buy $OSCR here or wait for more proof of scaling to 3M members by 2027?

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

$JOBY is leading the eVTOL race, and it’s quite an exciting propsect to behold: soon they may get you from downtown to the airport in 10 min by 2026.

- Market Size: $69B+ Urban Air Mobility TAM by 2040
- Regulatory Edge: Stage 4 FAA certification + White House pilot program → limited ops before full approval
- Partners: $DAL (premium flyers), $UBER (140M users), Toyota ($894M investment + mfg expertise)
- Tech: 4-passenger eVTOL, 150-mile range, 100x quieter than helicopters, zero emissions
- Capacity: 435k sq ft factory → 24 aircraft/yr; expanding to Dayton, Ohio
- Financials: $991M cash runway, $500–600M burn for 2025, revenue ramp starts 2026
- Risks: Certification delays, vertiport build-out, premium travel demand sensitivity

First-mover advantage + blue-chip backing = front-row seat to the air taxi era.

How’s $JOBY looking at current levels? Any of you consistently adding?

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

$SOUN is turning every car, drive-thru, and call center into an AI-powered assistant.

Let’s see what it has in store for us below👇:

- Q2 Growth: +217% YoY to $42.7M rev; raised FY guidance to $160–178M
- Big Wins: Automotive partners (Mercedes, Hyundai, Jeep), 10K+ restaurant locations (Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, KFC)
- Enterprise Boost: Interactions + Amelia acquisitions → 400+ patents + $45M recurring rev
- Tech Edge: Speech-to-meaning AI → understands natural language in noisy, real-world settings
- TAM: Conversational AI market to hit $32.7B by 2035 + $35B automotive voice commerce
- Strength: Debt-free balance sheet + 20x revenue backlog
- Risks: 43x P/S valuation + 127% volatility; lots of execution risk

Pure-play bet on voice AI eating the world, but the market seems to have priced it in already.

Would you add at these levels or wait for a pullback?

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

$NBIS is far from quietly becoming the backbone of AI. Comfortably breaking $100 recently, it's a very exciting stock indeed.

- Big Catalyst: $17.4B Microsoft deal; $3.5B/yr revenue starting late ‘25
- Growth: Q2 revenue +625% YoY, +106% QoQ
- Margins: 71.4% GM + positive adj. EBITDA
- Edge: $NVDA-backed, priority GPU access, in-house server design which means ultra-low infra cost
- Expansion: 220MW by ‘25, >1GW by ‘26
- Risk: Heavy CAPEX & $MSFT dependence = high stakes
- Upside: Lots of it, multiple PTs from $150 and more; $MSFT’s partnership provides tangible revenue

📊 Pure-play AI infra + guaranteed revenue = high-beta AI exposure.

Would you buy this above $100?

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

Looking into $BMNR amidst all the hype; while it's old news, they are no longer just a miner. Instead, they now function as an ETH mega-treasury and a cooling tech disruptor, with Tom Lee at the helm. Quick bullet points below to sum it all up:

- ETH Holdings: 2.15M ETH (~$10B) + $569M cash, making them the 2nd largest public crypto treasury
- Goal: Acquire 5% of ETH supply (~6M ETH target = ~$28B)
- Tech Edge: Proprietary immersion cooling, resulting in 80% efficiency gains + carbon-neutral operations
- AI Angle: Cooling tech handles 100kW rack density, which is perfect for $NVDA Blackwell GPU era
- Big Money Backers: Cathie Wood, Peter Thiel, Bill Miller, Pantera, $GLXY
- Buyback: $1B share repurchase while trading at discount to NAV
- Risks: ETH volatility + regulatory risk + capital raise dilution

📊 Crypto treasury + AI infra exposure = leveraged ETH play with a tech kicker.

Are you stacking $BMNR or staying out of the volatility?

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

@DrewTestament Oh I agree, the best feeling is the post-run for sure, and the dopamine hits.

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

@PhatChin I hear you, I switched to the following feed and never looked back!

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

@TheBrilliantBu1 No worries, it's really nothing but I hope you reach your goals!

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

Can't help much with my miniscule following, but for what's worth, give the man some impressions!

[The Brilliant Budget @TheBrilliantBu1]

Halfway to 2,000 verified followers!

I slacked on my impression goal this weekend as I spent time with family.

Now I just need 160k more impressions and I’m monetized.

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

@arabwealthy Makes sense, thanks for your insights my man, I'll take a look into $JD to see if I can get comfortable with it!

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

Hahaha I get what you are trying to say and honestly, this is an interesting take to things. I agree though, there are always two sides to a coin, and it's just how comfortable we can be with uncertainty as well.

No worries, I appreciate the time you took to type it out! It's not about not investing, but more about what to invest; I'm spoilt for choice lately, too many things to buy, too little money🤣

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

@21Quebec Thanks my man, it's been awhile, how have you been? Hope life has been treating you well!

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

Volatility is a wonderful thing. We shouldn't be afraid of it, because it is in volatility that money is made.

Only when stocks go down for no reason will there be bargains.

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

@Raino_Invests brooo i wanted to get in at $14 and i said i'd wait for $12 but if i bought it it would have probably went to $1🤣

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

@YodaStockInvest and you too yoda, you deserve it!

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

@Zeff_Pena you're naming all the stocks that i want to own but don't yet too!

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

@babyfolio i actually hope not, i want to add more!

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

@arabwealthy thanks for sharing, great writeup! what's your thoughts comparing $JD to $PDD?

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

@arabwealthy i prefer chunk but thread is easier to read and i think others like it more too!

[Pufferfish Finance @pufferfishfin]

@YodaStockInvest i do both! but if the thesis changes for the better the PT can shift upwards, and vice versa too