プルオタニ

・pull(引く)　ohtani(大谷選手)　という念がこもったアカウント
・2025年秋からMLBカード収集
・NPBも好きです　ドラゴンズなど
・youtubeチャンネルでコツコツ開封

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

【2026 TOPPS Chrome BASEBALL開封】
一部では「悲劇」とも称されたVALUE BOX開封しました。オッズ的に大ヒットを狙うのが難しいのは確かですが、個人的には十分楽しめました！
ご興味のある方はご視聴ください🙇‍♂️

https://t.co/7xf0VHyaLY

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

【2026 Topps Tribute Baseball】
次はトリビュート7月29日15時ですね〜。
チャッピーによるとプレオーダー価格600ドル？ということは、10万はゆうに超えそうですよね！
手が出なくて逆に財布に優しいなぁ🤣

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

@PG26230195 あ、なるほど！ダイナミックプライスでは買いたくないってことですね😅開封楽しみにしてますね〜☺️

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

@PG26230195 来年はJUMBO買いましょう！
1箱10万になってるかもだけど😇

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

収集用品と共に、『悲劇』のVALUE BOX届いたで😇
JUMBO、HOBBY諦めた時点で覚悟はしてるけど、水道橋ドリーム無いかな…？

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

いつも勉強になります。
トプクロ2025はそんなに酷かったんか…
そして、2026についても
〝Value Boxes are a tragedy.〟
悲劇て…😇

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

@LLF2730 すごい！オートもそれ以外も充実しすぎですね🎉おめでとうございます😊

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

いつも勉強になります。
トプクロ2025はそんなに酷かったんか…
そして、2026についても
〝Value Boxes are a tragedy.〟
悲劇て…😇

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

2026 Topps Chrome Analysis & Deep Dive

I know plenty of you have been waiting for this one.

Unfortunately, I got a bit of a late start. Rookie move on my part...a couple days ago I promised my son I'd take him golfing, somehow failing to consider that it was also Topps Chrome release day. And I didn't have the heart to back out on him. Priorities, I suppose.

But now that I've spent an ample amount of time wading through the muck, both on the golf course and in the odds sheet, I have the scoop. A few hours later than I would have liked, but I'll do my best to make it worth the wait.

I know some of the figures have already been shared by my fellow nerds. But I assure you...I have plenty to offer that you will not find anywhere else. And considering we're still getting over the smell from the rotting carcass of 2025 Topps Chrome, we have quite a bit to discuss.

Welcome to 2026 Topps Chrome MLB.

Part 1: First Things First

Let's go ahead and address the elephant in the room. 2025 Topps Chrome was bad. Not regular bad. Epically, biblically bad.

I truly believe it was the worst product released by Topps in 2025. Which is made even worse by the fact that Topps Chrome always has a nearly unmatched level of hype.

My exact words last year were something to the effect of: “Trying to pick the best format is like arguing over which tire is the best while the car is already on fire.” And I stand by every word.

So what made it such a disaster?

In my mind, it had two fundamental flaws. Either one would have been difficult to overcome. Together, they were fatal.

1) The amount of worthless unnumbered parallels was appalling. Topps clearly tried to make boxes feel loaded, but in actuality only made it worse. We don't need 68% of a Mega Box to be worthless parallels that no one is chasing. Nobody is falling for that.

2) Despite a painfully shallow rookie class, the Rookie Autograph checklist was the largest in Topps Chrome history at 166 subjects deep. Of those, I counted precisely 10 whose autograph I would have been happy to pull from a hobby box. Even fewer would have actually paid for the box.

Forget resale value for a moment. From a pure collector-enjoyment standpoint, only about 6% of the rookie autos were cards that most people would be excited to pull.

So that is the main question I want to keep in our pocket while we break this thing down...

Did Topps fix it? Do we have our Chrome back? Or did they simply repaint the burnt-out car and put it back on the lot?

We'll get there.

Part 2: Production Numbers

Total cards produced:
2026 Topps Chrome
72,945,008

2025 Chrome:
67,711,008
YOY +7.73%

Total production by format:
Hobby- 142,440 boxes (11,870 cases)
YOY +4.7%

Jumbo- 66,704 boxes (8,338 cases)
YOY +2.9%

Value- 1,175,600 boxes (29,390 cases)
YOY +3%

Mega- 423,420 boxes (21,171 cases)
YOY +21.4%

Delight- 37,200 boxes (6,004 cases)
YOY +4.8%

Fanatics Mega- 40,100 boxes (2,005 cases)
YOY +33.3%

Part 3: Heat Map

Hit Rates Per Box:
Hobby- 1.06 Autos (~6% of boxes could produce an extra auto), 9.3 Inserts, 12.5 Parallels, 1.4 Numbered cards

Jumbo- 2.09 Autos (~9% of boxes could produce an extra auto), 13.3 Inserts, 20.5 Parallels, 2.7 Numbered cards,

Value boxes- 1 Auto per 9.6 boxes (~4.2 Autos/Case), 5 Inserts, 4.6 Parallels, 1 Numbered card per 4.9 boxes

Megas- 1 Auto per 6.1 boxes, 5 Inserts, 9.5 Parallels, 1 Numbered card per 2.25 boxes

Breaker's Delight- 2 Autos, 1.25 Inserts, 4.4 Parallels, 2.4 Numbered cards

Fanatics Megas- 1 Auto per 5.2 boxes, 5.25 Inserts, 7.1 Parallels, 1.15 Numbered cards

Part 4: More Heat

% of Numbered Autos by Format:
Hobby- 55.12%
Jumbo- 55.14%
Value- 57.58%
Mega- 60.48%
Delight- 72.31%
Fanatics Mega- 60.5%

This backs off a bit from the recent trend of Hobby containing a higher concnetration of numbered autos vs Jumbo or retail SKUs. Delight, as usual, still comes in highest. But at the price it probably should.

Rare Inserts:
This category is largely what made Bowman Value boxes an actual value. Traditionally, retail SKUs are harsh when it comes to rare inserts. But Bowman was an outlier. Let's see if they carried that retail magic over to Chrome.

For this release, the Rare Inserts I'm including in the equation are: Radiating Rookies, Helix, Hobby Masters, Shadow Etch, Static Noise (the new retail exclusive), Expose, World Series at Night, Ultraviolet, and Minions.

Some are definitely more desirable than others, but they are all tough pulls. Base Fanatical and Diamond Moments are not included as they both fall 2 per case. However, for Fanatics Megas I adjusted the formula slightly to include Fanatical parallels (not base Fanaticals which fall 2 per case and are a Fanatics box exclusive this year) and the Authentic Memorabilia Redemptions.

Keep in mind, there are plenty of other rare inserts with value, like MVP Buybacks, Numbers Live Forever, Cooperstown Calls and numbered parallels of more common inserts. But I did not include these because I did not want to also include numbered parallels of every single common Insert and call them rare. This focuses on the unnumbered "Case-Hit" type stuff.

Hit Rates of Rare Inserts By Format:
Hobby- 1 per 7.5 boxes (1.6/case)
Jumbo- 1 per 5.7 boxes (1.4/case)
Value- 1 per 324 boxes (1 per 8.1 cases)
Mega- 1 per 175.5 boxes (1 per 8.8 cases)
Delight- 1 per 4 boxes (1.5/case)
Fanatics Mega- 1 per 38.1 boxes (1 per 1.9 cases)

Part 5: Digging Deeper

We know total production is up a very reasonable ~8%...but what exactly does that look like? This is where the real differences begin to appear.

Total Autos:
2026- 560,571
2025- 600,525
YOY -6.65%
More cards, yet less autos.

Total Inserts:
2026- 10,416,708
2025- 6,112,334
YOY +70.4%

Total Parallels:
2026- 13,051,770
2025- 21,735,298
YOY -40%

Total Numbered Parallels:
(Includes only Numbered Base, No Numbered Inserts or Autos)
2026- 940,079
2025- 804,178
YOY +16.9%
Far fewer Parallels, but more numbered.

Total Numbered Inserts:
2026- 80,675
2025- 40,142
YOY +101%

Total Quality Hits:
(Includes Parallels & Inserts ≤/75, Case Hit level or rarer Inserts, Autos ≤/100)
2026- 571,900
2025- 404,231
YOY +41.5%

Total Base Cards:
2026- 48,915,959
2025- 39,262,851
YOY- +24.6%

So now we can see that Topps nuked a massive number of the unnumbered parallels. Autos are also down somewhat. In their place, we get far more inserts, both numbered and unnumbered, along with more numbered cards overall.

I think that is a clear step in the right direction.

My first fundamental concern- all the bullshit parallels- has been fixed to my satisfaction. I mean, there are still a ton. They just won’t be coming out in droves like last year.

Now, it is important to understand what that does not mean. This product is not necessarily more dense with hits. The overall hit rates are very similar to last year. There will simply be far fewer of the most worthless ones, most noticeably in retail SKUs.

This also means there will be more base cards than last year. I'm OK with that. Don't get me wrong, I'm not exactly clamoring for stacks of base. But I ragged on Topps pretty hard for turning last year's Chrome into a "shinyfest". So when they make a legitimate effort to correct it, I'm not going to turn around and bash them for that too. I appreciate the effort.

Part 6: Value Map
Prices based on release day pricing. These will likely need adjusted soon as it will probably be impossible to find Hobby/Jumbo at launch pricing ever again.
For that, I'll attach an adjustable spreadsheet to my Substack article within the next day or two so you can stay on top of values as market pricing changes.
https://t.co/ItcNNc6mz9

$/Card
1) Value Box- $1.43
2) Mega- $1.67
3) Fanatics Mega- $2.02

$/Parallel
1) Mega- $7.37
2) Value- $8.66
3) Fanatics Mega- $12.02

$/Auto
1) Jumbo- $200.96
2) Hobby- $233.64
3) Value- $383.20

$/Numbered card
1) Fanatics Mega- $74.56
2) Jumbo- $154.41
3) Mega- $156.80

$/Numbered Auto
1) Jumbo- $364.45
2) Hobby- $419.17
3) Delight- $554.02

$/Rare Insert
1) Hobby- $1,877.50
2) Jumbo- $2381.40
3) Delight- $3,240.00
4) Fanatics Mega- $3,240.20

$/Quality Hit
1) Jumbo- $234.86
2) Fanatics Mega- $253.44
3) Hobby- $296.75
4) Delight- $307.44
5) Mega- $309.41
6) Value- $357.74

Part 7: One More Item To Address

Remember the two major questions I raised earlier?
I think we answered one of them sufficiently. The other still needs some attention.

The autos.

Topps' recent solution to these massive autograph checklists has been to split them up. For 2026 Chrome, that allowed them to “trim” the main Rookie Autograph checklist from 166 names to 94.

That sounds like a major improvement. But it's also deceptive.

The catch is that they also created a retail-only autograph checklist with 30 additional names that no one has ever heard of. And even though they saved the worst of the worst strictly for retail, there are still 445 total names on all the combined auto checklists for 2026. Compare this to 351 last year. So technically, it's even more diluted than 2025...just not with rookies.

And let's be clear: a 94-player checklist made up entirely of rookies is still unquestionably beefy. And there are some real squatters in there.

The good news is there are at least 20 to 25 solid names in that checklist. That gives us a far better percentage of desirable rookie autos than we had in 2025.

Unless you're ripping retail, of course.

Among the retail formats, your chances vary quite a bit on if you'll be pulling your sigs from that list of warm bodies. Here's how that looks:

% of Autos from "Retail Rookie Autos" Checklist:
1) Value- 70.5%
2) Mega- 43.1%
3) Fanatics Mega- 23%

So did they fix it? The auto situation? I mean...there was an attempt. "Fixed" is probably a stretch. It was addressed, let's leave it at that.

Buyers of Hobby SKUs will unknowingly appreciate it. Value Box connoisseurs might want a word.

Part 8: What Would the Squatch Do?

I can't do it. I cannot, in good conscience, recommend retail.

Value Boxes are a tragedy. I suppose the nicest thing I can say is that they provide the cheapest path to MVP Buyback fare. There is also one Gold Logoman and one Gold Dual Logoman hiding in Value Boxes somewhere, so your chances of pulling one are technically not zero.

If I had to recommend one retail SKU, Fanatics Megas are easily the best of the three. Even then, they feel a little greasy at $85. And who knows if they'll be available again. They're also difficult to consider a true retail format when the only place you can buy them is directly from Fanatics. That doesn't do you much good when you're on a diaper run and decide to reward yourself with a pit stop at the Target card aisle.

Regular Megas are measurably better than Value Boxes, although calling them a good value would be a stretch. They're fine in spurts. I'm not plowing through cases though, regardless of how degenerate I am.

I like that they at least give you a chance at a reasonable auto, not some stiff who had a cup of coffee and now works at D-Bat. One autograph per six boxes isn't completely offensive. The format also contains two of the Gold Logoman Relics and one Gold Dual Logoman. And because Topps produced roughly one-third as many Megas as Value Boxes, your odds are better.

The downside? “Better” still means approximately 0.007%. Queue the meme..."So you're telln' me there's a chance."

For transparency, I did preorder 10 Hobby Boxes, though I'm still not entirely sure what I plan to do with them. The process also wasn't particularly difficult considering everyone was gun-shy after last year's disaster and odds weren't out yet. I saw the vastly improved checklist, made a somewhat hasty decision, and thought there was simply no possible way this product could be worse than 2025.

Thankfully, I was right.

So, is 2026 Topps Chrome better? That's a resounding yes.

Is it worth buying? If it's Hobby/Jumbo at drop pricing, sure. At least then, your exit strategy doesn't have to consist entirely of ripping and prayers.

But at the dicey prices we're already seeing? Probably not, bro. You can buy some pretty sweet singles for $365/$700, maybe even a Perspectives auto.

Part 9: The Print Runs

Base Card production:
~163,050 ea

Unnumbered Parallels:
Refractors- ~17,045 ea
X-fractors (Mega only)- ~8,470 ea
Wave Refractors (Jumbo only)- ~1,335 ea
Prism (Hobby only)- ~1,900 ea
Red, White & Blue (Value only)- ~3,430 ea
Baseball Seams (Value only)- ~3,430 ea
Topps Refractor (Fanatics Mega only)- ~800 ea
Raywave (Value only)- ~3,430 ea
Geometric (Delight only)- ~120 ea
Negative- ~350 ea

Base Image Variations (50 card CL)- ~950 ea
Base SSPs (10 card CL)- ~95 ea
Lightboard Logo (Value & Mega only)- ~175 ea
Award Winner Variations (6 card CL)- ~24 ea

Unnumbered Inserts:
1991 Topps (30 card CL)- ~81,480 ea
1991 Geometric- ~300 ea
Big Ticket Players (25 card CL)- ~84.965 ea
Big Ticket Players Geometric- ~360 ea
Chrome Rivals Away (Retail SKUs, 25 card CL)- ~32,780 ea
Chrome Rivals Home (Hobby SKUs, 25 card CL)- ~4,185 ea
Diamond Moments (Hobby/Jumbo, 50 card CL)- ~810 ea
Fanatical (Fanatics Mega only, 10 card CL)- ~400 ea
Future Stars (10 card CL)- ~83,660 ea
Future Stars Geometric- ~330 ea
Past to Present (Value/Mega, 25 card CL)- ~32,780 ea
Perspectives (10 card CL)- ~83,660 ea
Perspectives Geometric- ~330 ea
Wild Style (Hobby/Jumbo, 25 card CL)- ~4,185 ea
Wrecking Crew (25 card CL)- ~85,965 ea
Wrecking Crew Geometric- ~360 ea

Rare Inserts Unnumbered:
Radiating Rookies (20 card CL)- ~655 ea
Helix (15 card CL)- ~95 ea
Hobby Masters (Hobby SKUs only, 19 card CL)- ~290 ea
Shadow Etch (Hobby SKUs only, 20 card CL)- ~655 ea
Static Noise (Value/Mega, 15 card CL)- ~285 ea
World Series at Night (10 card CL)- ~285 ea
Ultraviolet (15 card CL)- ~215 ea
Minions (4 card CL)- ~100 ea

Unnumbered Autos:
Base Chrome Rookie Autos (94 card CL)- ~1,725 ea
Base Chrome Rookie Retail Autos (Retail SKUs only, 30 card CL)- ~1,845 ea
Ink Strokes (71 card CL)- ~210 ea

#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsChrome

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

@poker0725 おめでとうございます🎉

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

【2025 Topps Inception 開封結果】
オートはMick Abel（現ツインズ）RC
ドラフト1巡目（全体15位）の有望株ながら、今シーズンはわずか3試合投げて負傷離脱のよう😭手術を経て今は3Aで投げているようですが、映像見る限りかなり期待できそう！注目していきます。
ブラックのフリーマンはSPなのかな？

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

【2026 Topps Chrome Baseball】
JPではVALUEも売り切れですね・・。USならなんとか。
2025がまだまだ買えるのに、なんでこんなことに？
値上げ(オート保証減の実質的な部分も含めて)激しいけど、これだけ売れるならまだまだ値上げ余地ありと供給側は考えますよね😅

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

@poker0725 確かにオッズ次第ですね〜。ボウマンは良かったですが、トプクロはあまり期待出来ないと風の噂では聞きます😇

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

タイムラインがこれだらけに（笑）
そりゃリポストしたくなりますよね☺

[Topps @Topps]

FIRST LOOK: Shohei Ohtani's back-to-back Gold Logoman dual autograph card.

This card features two Gold Logoman patches and two on-card autographs.

The patches in this card are game-worn and dated to some of Shohei’s best performances.

The first patch was worn in a two home-run game (9/7/25) and the second when Shohei homered and reached base 3 times (4/12/26).

This card is also signed twice… Once in English, and another time featuring Ohtani’s rare Kanji signature.

This 1-of-1 card can be found in a pack of 2026 Topps Chrome Baseball, releasing tomorrow.

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

@0123halohalo めちゃくちゃいい感じです！

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

【2026 Topps Chrome Baseball】
@BROTHERS_KAZU さんにて
良心的価格だったけど、今回はこれが精いっぱいかな😅
雰囲気だけ味わいたいと思います。
突撃する皆様のご武運を祈ります！

[Sports Card Investor @SportsCardInv]

This little kid found a Shohei Ohtani auto out of a $0.75 machine at Fanatics Fest 🥹

🎥: @Topps

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

【2026 Topps Chrome Baseball】
JPは22日15時発売なんですね。
JUMBOが9万円、HOBBYが約5万円？MEGAが1.5万円ぐらいで買えるといいけど😅

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

【2025 Topps Inception Baseball開封】
今更ながらのインセプション！
TIER ONEに引き続き高級BOX(プルオタニ比)に挑戦です。
しばらくVALUE BOX生活が続くかもしれません😅
https://t.co/z9nkR9BstF

[プルオタニ @pullohtani]

@BROTHERS_KAZUさんで購入したティアワン開封結果です。
個人的当たりはラッシング選手の直筆オート！少し大谷選手に近づいたかな？追加で黒マグホ購入して納めました☺️
スタントン選手のTIER ONEダイカットもカッコいいですね。
レリックオートの選手は、紆余曲折あって現在は独立L所属のようです😅