Graduated from the trenches. Markets reward discipline, not hope. Trading perps without bias - only setups. Capital preservation is the real alpha. $BTC $XMR
Iโm not being bearish on #Bitcoin - just following the cycles.
$BTC has followed a near perfect rhythm for 15 years: ~1,064 days up -> ~364 days down
Here are the exact highs, lows, durations, and % changes ๐
๐ข Cycle 1
2010-03-17 ATL $0.003 (BitcoinMarket)
449 days
2011-06-08 ATH $31 (Mt.Gox) +1,033,000%
163 days
2011-11-18 ATL $2.01 (Mt.Gox) -93%
743 days
๐ข Cycle 2
2013-11-30 ATH $1,163 (Bitstamp) +57,800%
410 days
2015-01-14 ATL $152 (Bitstamp) -87%
1,068 days
๐ข Cycle 3
2017-12-17 ATH $20,093 (BitMEX) +13,123%
363 days
2018-12-15 ATL $3,121 (BitMEX) -84%
1,061 days
๐ข Cycle 4
2021-11-10 ATH $69,182 (Bybit) +2,116%
376 days
2022-11-21 ATL $15,437 (Bybit) -78%
1,050 days
๐ข Cycle 5 (current)
2025-10-06 ATH $126,197 (Bybit) +717% โ
If the rhythm continues:
364 days
Next ATL => 2026-10-05 at $31,550 (-75%)
1064 days
Next ATH => 2029-08-03 at $250,000 (+700%)
Since 2015, Bitcoinโs macro rhythm has been almost clockwork:
3 years up -> 1 year down -> halving in between.
Not a prediction - just math and time.
$SPCX ripped to $176.52
Exactly what happens when everyone wants in and nobody wants out.
The interesting part comes later.
Every memecoin looks unstoppable before the early holders start taking profits.
Everyone is calling $SPCX the greatest IPO ever.
Maybe.
But the setup looks suspiciously familiar to anyone who survived a few memecoin cycles.
Hear me out ๐๐๐๐๐
Everyone is calling $SPCX the greatest IPO ever.
Maybe.
But the setup looks suspiciously familiar to anyone who survived a few memecoin cycles.
Hear me out ๐๐๐๐๐
Everyone is calling $SPCX the greatest IPO ever.
Maybe.
But the setup looks suspiciously familiar to anyone who survived a few memecoin cycles.
Hear me out ๐๐๐๐๐
Everyone is calling $SPCX the greatest IPO ever.
Maybe.
But the setup looks suspiciously familiar to anyone who survived a few memecoin cycles.
Hear me out ๐๐๐๐๐
@codetocompound@TheProfInvestor Overhyped and overpriced arenโt the same thing.
Low liquidity can keep something overhyped for a lot longer than people expect.
Everyone is calling $SPCX the greatest IPO ever.
Maybe.
But the setup looks suspiciously familiar to anyone who survived a few memecoin cycles.
Hear me out ๐๐๐๐๐
Everyone is calling $SPCX the greatest IPO ever.
Maybe.
But the setup looks suspiciously familiar to anyone who survived a few memecoin cycles.
Hear me out ๐๐๐๐๐
Weโve seen this movie before.
- Low liquidity.
- Massive narrative.
- Cult founder.
- Retail FOMO.
- Over-subscribed launch.
Thatโs basically the memecoin starter pack.
Funny part?
People laughing at crypto for years are about to experience their first low liquidity launch and call it investing.
Good luck out there.
Everyone is calling $SPCX the greatest IPO ever.
Maybe.
But the setup looks suspiciously familiar to anyone who survived a few memecoin cycles.
Hear me out ๐๐๐๐๐
Thatโs why I think a lot of people are about to confuse price discovery with value.
If $SPCX pumps 50-100% or more after launch, that doesnโt mean the company suddenly became worth hundreds of billions more overnight.
It means there werenโt enough shares available for everyone trying to buy.
๐
239 days since the $BTC ATH of $126,197.
If the cycle sticks, 125 days left until $BTC bottoms out.
People still think every +10% bounce means new ATHs are coming.
This happens every bear market.
Small pumps convince people the bottom is in long before the actual bottom.