Puneesh Chaudhry

Angel Investor Launchpad Venture Group. Former CEO of successful Angel/VC backed company. Space Enthusiast.

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

AWS did it as part of a strategy, is your feeling that Meta is doing this as part of a strategic initiative, or that they have temporary excess capacity which they are leasing to make a quick buck. SpaceX is doing the latter. If Meta is doing it for the same reason, it is a potential red flag for their AI strategy.

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

Is the thought that by letting the price of Gold rise in USD terms, US would force China’s hand to pick one of two options:
a) keep the peg: in this case the Chinese citizens suddenly become very wealthy in RMB terms and buy western countries’ exports, addressing the trade imbalance.
b) Let RMB rise vs USD: Chinese citizens become wealthy in real terms and can buy more imported goods, addressing trade imbalance.

A lot would depend on what happens to Gold/Oil ratio in the two cases, please share your thoughts on that.

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

You’ve been right about the damage Iran has inflicted on US assets, and the resilience of the Iranian regime. However, I don’t agree with equating it to Britain’s Suez moment in 1956. US, while hobbled by debt, is still a superpower, AI will only fortify that position. Plus, one silver lining of fighting a war is that you get to readjust your strategy and military assets. My prediction is that short-term setbacks not withstanding, US will reorganize its military to fight for the new regime of drones and cheap missiles to regain military supremacy.

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

While I share the sentiment re: foreign causes, I’m not sure what you imply by letting us decide. Since we’re not a direct democracy, we decide by electing whoever, and the elected representatives bring their own personal views and biases in deciding which foreign causes to support. One person’s America First is different from the other, so when the other party comes into power, there will be a reset. And the cycle goes on. Since we live in the richest and most powerful country in the world, this will go on forever, unfortunately.

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

@entrepreneur987 I thought that Jevons paradox applied to commodities, not human beings? Unless his point is that the remaining fewer developers are so productive that their cost per line of code is significantly lower, in which case I’d agree with that.

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

@LukeGromen This would seem to support Bessent’s POV…

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

@LukeGromen It’s a liquidity question. If it was $14T in treasury notes, which are liquid, it would be a different question. Without knowing what the composition and maturity is, this is not that unusual. Elon has routinely done this (borrowed against his stock holdings).

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

@jayparsons If I did my math right, you are saying that there were 378K apartment unit starts last year, is that a correct interpretation? Is there any way to track total apartment starts over the last few years?

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

@Rory_Johnston @adamscochran Does the higher price bring on supply which may have been made dormant at $60 WTI? Or, turning on dormant supply is not that responsive, speed wise?

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

@Fightme120 @LukeGromen So, essentially you are saying that other than Iran no other country has the intestinal fortitude for a war? In other words everyone else is “soft”? Possibly… If the outcome of only Iran extracting a toll happens, then you’d be right about the “soft” claim. Let’s see.

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

The toll is a trap for Iran. Once the US stops the bombing, if Iran continues to charge a toll, it’ll be a violation of the UN Charter, and it will give a reason to all these countries to go after Iran in a “legal” way.
Speaking of Russia, their foreign Ministry spokesperson yesterday said that all countries that border the strait should control the strait.

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

@acaseofthegolf1 I thought you need a ride home after the procedure, because of the sedation. Typically that would be your spouse, just something to consider…

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

@biancoresearch A key point is money supply growth. In 2022, the govt caused inflation because they flooded the system with money during a supply shock. If they simply lower interest rates to boost private sector lending and not flood the money supply with govt stimulus, wouldn't that work?

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

Love your analysis, but you’re veering towards stating that the US admin is so clueless that they didn’t know about the strait. I wish you’d be a bit more balanced in stating that the control of the Strait is the end game, and it needs to be played out. You are sounding like the game is over, not sure if that’s what you’re going for.

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

@LukeGromen One tanker can carry 2-3 millions of barrels, so do we know if we’re simply talking about a few tankers, or is it more? Everyone understands that the strait is closed, and that a few Iran friendly tankers have passed, but this headline feels like clickbait

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

I’m afraid if the Fed uses the one time price increase to guide their monetary policy, it’s no longer an academic distinction. The incoming Fed chair has talked about using the money supply increase as a key factor to guide interest rates, and not just rely on the CPI/PCE numbers, I believe.

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

Love your work, but you’re both right and wrong on this one. You’re right that a temporary price increase still feels like inflation to the average person, but the reason it should not be labeled inflation is because the Fed’s tools to control inflation, i.e., higher interest rates won’t be helpful, might even make things worse. Those tools are only useful to control Money supply expansion, not temporary price increases. I know famous last words: transitory inflation 😃

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

@LukeGromen Charlotte has had a very large wave of new supply over the past few years, which has kept rents flat to negative for the last 12+months. This particular building could be doing a refi or exit. I have the actual number of deliveries and absorption somewhere, if that will help.

[Puneesh Chaudhry @puneesh]

Bitcoin thesis is different, related to USD debasement. Time will tell if it’ll come true. I’m a believer, but belief has been shaken a bit.
Tech service providers are facing existential threats from AI. Again, time will tell, but the AI coding driven productivity is real, I tend to lean towards PE multiple compression for SW type companies.