$BB obviously up big today. A few reasons for that.
One, they are generating huge free cash flow now, and the guidance set is that will continue. They also are doing a 5% share buyback, so there's no dilution risks to investors.
Physcial AI, Robotics, NVDA partnership, medical, QNX being used in both Autos and the military like submarines with defense contracts.
Robotics is currently viewed as a 4T market which they are going to play a role in. Large rev growth last year at 78% margins.
I think in the next 1-2 years this is trading several multiples higher. Also @crypto_condom was the reason I originally got in the trade so the credit should go there for spotting this so early.
Your brain was designed to forget everything you think you know.
I discovered this reading about an ancient Greek practice called elenchus that Socrates used to destroy people's certainty about their most basic beliefs.
He would approach someone who claimed expertise in justice, courage, or virtue, then ask them to define what they meant. Simple enough.
Then Socrates would take their definition and, through patient questioning, help them see where it didn’t fully align. He relied on no clever wordplay or logical tricks. Instead, his steady questions invited the person to examine the idea more closely and deepen what they claimed to understand.
The victim would leave these conversations mentally shattered. Everything they thought they knew dissolved under gentle scrutiny. Socrates called this state aporia - productive confusion that clears space for genuine learning.
I tried this on myself a few years ago with something I was completely confident about: why I chose my career path. Wrote down my reasoning. Then interrogated each reason like Socrates would have. Within 20 minutes, I realized I had constructed an elaborate story around decisions I made for completely different reasons than I claimed.
My mind had been lying to me about my own life.
The essay writing process recreates aporia artificially. You start confident you understand your position on something. You begin writing. Halfway through, you discover your argument contradicts itself. You realize you've been carrying around unexamined assumptions for years. You have to rebuild your thinking from scratch.
These days most of us consume content that reinforces what we already believe, or consume content so bite-sized it never challenges anything deep enough to matter. That's why the modern information diet prevents aporia from ever occurring naturally.
But aporia is where intelligence lives.
When Socrates forced people into productive confusion, smartest ones started asking better questions, became genuinely curious about topics they thought they had mastered. They even discovered the difference between knowing words and understanding concepts.
Essay writing does the same thing to your brain, but without needing someone else to interrogate you. The act of trying to explain your thoughts on paper reveals where your thinking is shallow, contradictory, or borrowed from sources you never questioned.
You can't fake your way through 1,000 words about something you care about. Your mind either understands the connections between ideas, or it doesn't. The essay exposes which one is true.
It's high time we re-learn what we've forgotten:
"Confusion is not the enemy of learning. Premature certainty is the enemy of learning. "
Every social media is feeding you content works in the opposite direction. It identifies what you already believe and gives you more sophisticated versions of the same beliefs. It never forces aporia. It never creates productive confusion. It builds false confidence through repetition.
Your thinking stops developing.
That's why writing things at length propels your new thinking.
My gut feeling is that we'll get out of this bear market sideways
There will be a bunch of bigger bounce plays but you'll probably have a while to buy around the bottom this time round
Get comfortable with the pain bros, it'll last a while IMO
Not many understand that Ethena is not a competitor to Tether; it is the exact opposite: our own respective growth directly benefits one another
~70% of the perpetual swap market is denominated in USDT
For every unit of shorts Ethena adds to the market, a unit of Tether demand is created and is required to be long on the other side to match us
Or in other words, a $1 increase in USDe leads to a ~$0.70 increase in USDT when USDe is backed purely by perpetual positions in the collateral
Tether doesn't need a reward-bearing product...
we already built one without anyone ever realising it
Wintermute has supported @eulerfinance as a partner since their early days, watching them grow into one of DeFi's most established protocols
Today, Euler has joined as one of @wmt_ventures’ portcos and we're looking forward to their continued growth to make DeFi great again
1. First some disclosures. Wintermute (and myself by extention) is long $HYPE. Not as much as people seem to think based on our wallet, but still our top10 positions as of today (and really since TGE).
I also think Jeff and the team clearly won the defi perp space as of today. It's a pretty significant achievement and they deserve all the praise (and the accompaning hyperliquid army🙃)
All this to say that I do believe in the future upside and have skin in the game
nvidia mcap: $3.4 trillion
total crypto mcap: $3.3 trillion
all of crypto is worth less than nvidia.
yes crypto will have mid-term "tops" & "bottoms", but people are conflating price action with progress.
we're still earlier than you think.
sober market update:
lots of emotion about where crypto is standing right now, so I thought I'd lay out my own thoughts properly instead of my usual tongue-in-cheek tweets
$BTC
- it has looked better but it has also looked a lot worse
- study the summer 2024 range, it looked like it was over more than once, but it wasn't
- I highly doubt you get a 69k retest this year
- anything under 100k is a gift and I plan to continue buying spot BTC at any price this year
$SOL
- 170 was a major resistance and pivot level in 2024
- SOL is now sitting above that resistance level
- lots of volatility between 180 and 260, which is to be expected for the fastest horse asset
$BNB
- whether you like Binance or not, it's here to stay
- I've always liked to look at BNB as a risk proxy for the whole market
- it currently looks like it's leading the recovery in alts
- CZ is tweeting more often, tweeting about the chain, the tech, time to pay attention
Exchange tokens:
- in general will remain the safest investments
- crypto revolves around trading, not entreprise applications or other narratives, TRADING
- BNB, LEO, HYPE are my favorite picks, but other exchange tokens have also been doing very well
Other investable tokens:
- AAVE: remains the #1 DeFi token,
- ENA: highly volatile and vulnerable to downside as soon as funding rates cool off, but good tech
- XMR: has been resilient and remains useful
L1s and L2s:
- very bearish as a whole unfortunately
AI & memecoins:
- I think it's a mistake to be dismissive of the category
- fortunes have been made on each for those who paid attention
- however, these are NOT multi-cycle assets, so stop being upset when they go down after completing their job (which is to go up for a limited period of time)
Overall, I remain extremely optimistic for the rest of the cycle and for this whole year.
IF I'm right about this
I think the XRP ecosystem is vastly underpriced relative to others
Mcap of $20m on the biggest asset of the 3rd biggest coin is hilarious
Wish XRP wasn't such a piece of shit that only has memes and actually had something for me to buy but it is what it is