Adam Carson

Based in Mexico, producer covering quantum computing, AI & robotics.
Got a tip on future tech? Let’s talk. Bylines: @BlockLayerCast.

[Adam Carson @punk4307]

Keeping an eye on @token_works - the builders behind @PunkStrategy and strategies that revolve around @cryptopunksnfts. The core mechanic is simple: a 10% trading fee gets recycled into accumulation + buy-and-burn loops, while still routing value back to creators.

Big update today: TokenStrategy now supports deploying ERC-20 strategies even if you don’t control the underlying token contract (key for renounced / immutable coins). If a non-owner deploys, the creator fee buys the underlying token.

Next up: IndexStrategies. First is $AB500STR — rotating buys across @artblocks_io 500 (3 days per collection, starting with Chromie Squiggles), with fees split between the strategy, $PNKSTR buy/burn, and royalties spread across 300+ artists.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

Let's check in with @token_works — the dev studio behind:

PunkStrategy (Sept. 2025) — Introduced $PNKSTR with a 10% trading fee. The protocol accumulates ETH, buys the cheapest CryptoPunk it can, and relists it for a 20% premium, 'round and 'round. Upon any sales, all proceeds are used to burn $PNKSTR.

NFTStrategy (Sept. 2025) — Extended the $PNKSTR playbook to a curated set of top NFT collections like Bored Ape Yacht Club, Pudgy Penguins, and Chimpers, routing a portion of revenue back to original creators via onchain royalties.

TokenStrategy (Dec. 2025) — Unveiled a permissionless launchpad for deploying strategy tokens for NFT collections or ERC-20s you've created, debuting Recursive Strategies that buy and burn their own tokens.

~~ Analysis by @punk0439 ~~

Accordingly, TokenWorks is a team to watch in 2026, and they're already off to a hot start. Today they announced that anyone can now deploy any ERC-20 strategy they want.

This matters because previously the TokenStrategy platform would only let you deploy such a strategy if you controlled the underlying ERC-20 smart contract. However, projects renouncing control of their coins for immutability is a common pattern in the Ethereum ecosystem.

TokenWorks just "upgraded the TokenStrategy launcher to handle this case [...] If the Strategy is not deployed by the owner, the creator fee is also used to buy the underlying token."

Yet TokenWorks has something even bigger in the works for later this month: the arrival of IndexStrategies.

Like the name suggests, IndexStrategies will focus on buying a range of specific assets instead of just buying CryptoPunks, or just buying Bored Apes, etc.

The first IndexStrategy will be $AB500STR, which will accumulate works from Art Blocks 500, the 500 official generative art releases Art Blocks has facilitated.

$AB500STR will rotate through all @artblocks_io collections in sequence, starting with Chromie Squiggles. Each collection gets a three-day purchase window. If an NFT is acquired, or the window expires, the strategy advances to the next collection. Once all 500 projects have been cycled through, the loop restarts.

Like other NFT strategies, $AB500STR enforces a 10% trading fee, split between the strategy, buy-and-burns of $PNKSTR (as the ecosystem token), and creator royalties. The main wrinkle? The royalties are distributed evenly across the +300 AB500 artists instead of just going to one collection creator.

When sales occur after relistings, proceeds will be used to buy and burn $AB500STR, and this earn, buy, sell, and burn loop will run for as long as Ethereum runs.

This kind of setup is ideal for someone who wants long-term exposure to some of Ethereum's most iconic gen art collections without breaking the bank or manually curating buys.

$AB500STR is just the first of the IndexStrategies releases. In time, this model could be expanded in all sorts of directions. Consider tokenized Pokémon cards. Imagine a $BS1999STR that accumulates across the 102 cards of the legendary 1999 Pokémon Base Set series, all onchain.

We'll have to see where things go from here, but IndexStrategies do point the way to new cultural experiments. TokenWorks flips speculation so it's taxed into accumulation and royalties. Traders fund collectors, and artists get paid even when marketplaces don't enforce royalties. That's a really interesting dynamic worth tracking closely in the months ahead.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

The latest $3M round brings @AlloraNetwork’s total funding to $35M — but this raise was about more than capital.

@sachitakahara speaks with @nickemmons about why the round was structured around strategic alignment, bringing in AI-focused partners, funds, and individuals who understand where decentralized collective intelligence is heading.

The goal isn’t simply to expand the team or move faster. It’s to surround @AlloraLabs with people who can help shape the next phase of AI coordination.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

AI doesn’t need another isolated model.
It needs a network where intelligence can compound.

@kenzixbt in conversation with @nickemmons, Co-Founder of @AlloraNetwork, on breaking AI out of silos, turning fragmented models into collective intelligence, and building the coordination layer that could move AI beyond the control of a few monoliths.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

Web3 and AI are both hitting an inflection point at the same time.

AI is redefining intelligence, automation, and how people interact with technology. Crypto is building the economic rails for that intelligence to coordinate, transact, and operate in open networks.

@dikshaarden in conversation with @nickemmons (Co-Founder, @AlloraNetwork) on why the overlap between AI and crypto may become one of the biggest design spaces of the next decade — and why we’ve barely scratched the surface.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

Today’s episode features Nick Emmons (@nickemmons), Co-Founder & CEO of @AlloraNetwork.

We talk about what crypto actually adds to AI — beyond the hype — and why decentralized networks may become the coordination layer for models, incentives, data, and markets.

Nick breaks down Allora’s vision for collective intelligence: a network where AI systems can work together, compete, predict, and improve on-chain applications in real time. We dig into AI-powered DeFi, predictive models, new financial primitives, and what it means to make on-chain systems smarter and more adaptive.

We also cover the open vs. closed AI debate, where blockchain developers can find real opportunities in AI, and Nick’s founder journey building at the frontier of Web3 × AI.

At the center of it all is one big idea: markets aren’t just for price discovery — they may be one of the best tools we have for coordinating intelligence itself.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

After 7 years, Aztec’s Ignition mainnet is live.

Yet zero transactions or apps work yet. The chain is deliberately empty – because true protocol-level privacy can’t be rushed.

Here’s how this phased, decentralization-first launch positions Aztec as the leading private L2 on ETH👇

~~ Analysis by @punk7487 ~~

What's Actually Running

Think of Ignition like Ethereum's beacon chain from 2020. The governance and consensus infrastructure is operational, but the execution layer remains offline. The team is running what amounts to a live stress test with real money on the line.

Each sequencer staked at least 200K $AZTEC tokens to participate. They're producing blocks, provers are generating validity proofs, and the whole system is settling on Ethereum, just without any transactions.
The goal of running Ignition with real economics for 2-3 months will (hopefully) surface any remaining issues before transactions go live in early 2026, while setting the network up to be decentralized from day one.

The Decentralization Push

In Aztec's eyes, launching an L2 with a centralized sequencer from the get go rarely translates to decentralization down the road.

Centralized sequencers generate $40-150M annually in fees. Once you're locked into those cash flows, decentralization means making transactions slower and more expensive. The tension never resolves.

Instead, @aztecnetwork will launch fully decentralized from day one across three dimensions:

➢ Ownership is decentralized through $AZTEC token holders who control network parameters, fee schedules, and protocol upgrades.

➢ Block Production runs through 617 decentralized sequencer nodes using proof-of-stake. These nodes order transactions and produce blocks. To prevent any single party from gaining control, a small committee of sequencers is randomly selected to validate blocks before they are submitted to Ethereum.

➢ Proving is permissionless from the get-go. Provers generate the zero-knowledge proofs that cryptographically confirm all transactions in a batch are valid. They aggregate blocks and submit a single, final proof to Ethereum for verification, guaranteeing the integrity of the entire rollup.

When transactions go live, Aztec will qualify as a Stage 2 rollup, the highest decentralization tier for L2s. Most chains have pushed boundaries in one direction. Hitting all three pillars simultaneously is rare.

In Aztec's eyes, decentralization isn't optional for privacy. Centralized sequencers would face pressure from governments to install backdoors. Privacy requires cryptography plus decentralization, not one or the other.

What Happens Next

There are two major upcoming events, one technical and one token-related.

On the technical side, Ignition will remain live for 2-3 more months with sequencers producing empty blocks while the team monitors for issues. Early 2026 is when transactions flip on. Users will be able to send payments, deploy smart contracts, and interact with applications. By the end of 2026, block times should drop from the current 36-72 seconds down to 4 seconds, faster than Ethereum's 12-second blocks.

On the token side, the pre-allocation for the $AZTEC token sale is currently live, with the sale beginning December 2nd and running for 4 days. The sale uses @Uniswap's continuous clearing auction mechanism, meaning if you bid early, part of your bid clears at early prices and part clears later. This levels the playing field between early and late participants while letting price discovery happen naturally. When the auction ends, it automatically creates a Uniswap V4 liquidity pool at the final clearing price.

To participate in the sale, you must register prior to December 2nd.

For compliance, Aztec is using @ZKPassport, enabling people to prove cryptographically that they're from allowed jurisdictions and not on sanctions lists without traditional KYC. The sale is open to US retail and nearly every country worldwide, with the exception of sanctioned countries on the standard OFAC list.

The current 500 sequencers already staked $AZTEC tokens they purchased in a whitelisted genesis sale. They're earning rewards in $AZTEC right now. However, all tokens, whether from the genesis sale, the current public auction, or insider allocations, are non-transferable until Token Generation Event (TGE).

There is no set date for when TGE occurs, rather the community votes on it. However, the earliest date it can go live is February 11th, 2026. Once TGE happens, tokens purchased in the public auction unlock 100%.

7 Years in the Making

Overall, Ignition and the $AZTEC token sale demonstrate both the complexity of successfully executing privacy, as well as the extent to which Aztec is going to get this right.

First you have the need for decentralization from the get-go to ensure privacy endures, a feat unaccomplished by countless L2s launched so far. Then you have the tension between privacy and compliance, which the token sale's integration with ZK Passport helps solve.

Regardless of how mainnet goes, and I'm hopeful all goes well, this launch process shines as a testament to diligent design, demonstrating that forces like decentralization, privacy, and compliance can all coexist

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

Crypto's privacy revival is firing up projects old and new, with Zcash's ZEC leading at +560% in 30 days and +980% YTD.

Beyond hype, UX upgrades like the revamped Zashi wallet are enabling seamless shielded transactions that keep most coins in the dust.

Here’s why Zashi is nailing private crypto UX and how to use it👇

~~ Guide by @punk7487 ~~

What is Zashi?

Created by @Zcash's developers at Electric Coin Company, @zashi_app is a non-custodial mobile wallet built around shielded ZEC payments.

Zashi prevents you from transacting with transparent ZEC. You must shield any funds here before you can spend them. Fortunately, there's a simple in-app widget that makes shielding fast.

The wallet is also jam-packed with other useful features, like:

➢ A built-in Tor client
➢ An in-app Coinbase onramp
➢ Decentralized onramp and offramp flows
➢ A @FlexaHQ integration for spending ZEC at IRL retailers
➢ Private crosschain payments (in ETH, BTC, SOL, etc.)

At the heart of Zashi's crosschain swaps and onchain ramps is @NEARProtocol Intents, an interoperability protocol that lets users streamline transactions across any of the chains NEAR supports thanks to a network of specialized "solvers."

For example, with intents you can swap BTC into shielded ZEC in Zashi without losing privacy through a centralized exchange. Or you can privately donate to a cause you support by paying in shielded ZEC and having the recipient receive ETH on Ethereum.

Zashi's utility isn't just siloed to ZEC. You can use the wallet as an onchain privacy base while tapping its support for NEAR Intents to make transactions beyond Zcash. That's powerful.

Getting started

If you're curious to explore this further, download the Zashi wallet from the Apple App Store or Google Play.

From there:

➢ Once you've opened the app, you'll be asked if you want to "Restore Existing Wallet" or "Create New Wallet."

➢ If you opt to start fresh, you'll immediately be taken into a new account without having to write down a recovery phrase first (you can always backup your recovery phrase later from the "Advanced Settings" menu).

➢ Now fund your account: If you already own some ZEC, press Zashi's "Receive" button to copy and get a QR code for your account's shielded or transparent addresses. Alternatively, press the "More" button to bring up the "Buy ZEC with Coinbase" and "Swap with Near Intents" options.

After your Zashi account is loaded up, you'll have a new onchain privacy base at your disposal.

Use the wallet's "Send" tab to send a private ZEC transfer or message to another Zcash account. There's also the "Pay" tab that lets you offramp ZEC into any NEAR-supported crypto, so you can move funds elsewhere without revealing where they came from.

Zooming out

All in all, Zashi is quite a slick wallet.

It doesn't track any of your personal data. It makes it easy to use shielded ZEC, including in payments to IRL merchants via Flexa. And you can move money into and out of Zashi simply and privately without going through CEXs.

The bottom line? Privacy can fit naturally into modern crypto UX, and Zashi's a case study in how this meld can work well.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

“What happens when someone inside one of the most iconic retail platforms of the last cycle sees its limits up close?”

@kenzixbt speaks with @jayendra_jog, Co-Founder of @SeiNetwork, to trace the path that took him from the early days of Robinhood in Palo Alto — through hypergrowth, the IPO era, and the shock of the GameStop moment — to building in crypto.

They discuss how witnessing the mechanics and constraints of traditional financial infrastructure firsthand reshaped his thinking, why the suspension of buys during one of retail’s most defining episodes left such a lasting impression, and how that experience ultimately pushed him toward systems designed to be more open, more resilient, and less dependent on centralized control.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

“High-performance infrastructure only matters if it expands what users can actually do onchain — and makes that experience accessible at scale.”

@sachitakahara sits down with @jayendra_jog, Co-Founder of @SeiNetwork, to examine why parallelized execution is becoming increasingly important for the next generation of onchain applications.

From trading and DeFi to high-frequency user activity that simply breaks in low-throughput environments, they discuss how lower fees and greater execution capacity can fundamentally reshape the user experience — especially for smaller participants who are otherwise priced out.

They also explore how this plays out in practice through projects like Bancor’s Carbon DeFi, where Sei has emerged as the ecosystem driving the strongest activity and volume, underscoring how performance advantages translate into real adoption.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

“Virtual machines are like cities — once they reach critical mass, they become magnets that are incredibly hard to displace.”

@dikshaarden catches up with @jayendra_jog, Co-Founder of @SeiNetwork, to unpack this idea at a deeper level — why systems with flaws can still dominate simply because that’s where the activity, liquidity, and people already are.

From New York and San Francisco to onchain environments like the EVM, they explore how network effects compound over time, why newer ecosystems struggle to pull users away even with better tech, and what it actually takes to break that inertia.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

This week’s episode features Jayendra Jog (@jayendra_jog), Founder of @SeiNetwork.

We dive into Jay’s journey from traditional finance at Robinhood to building Sei Network, and unpack how his view of markets, users, and product feedback shaped the way he thinks about blockchain infrastructure.

The conversation explores the parallels between established cities and virtual machines: why dominant systems like the EVM are so difficult to displace, what makes developers stay, and what it actually takes for a new ecosystem to earn attention.

We also dig into the need for higher throughput in Web3, how parallelization can help solve today’s performance limits, and why scalability matters if crypto applications are going to serve real users at a much larger scale.

Jay also reflects on the role of memecoins, not just as speculation, but as community-driven movements that can reveal how culture, attention, and network effects form onchain.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

Last week, Ethereum’s ecosystem (L1 plus rollups) blasted through a new high, briefly hitting 24,000 transactions per second.

From 0.7 TPS in 2015 to regular spikes above 10,000 TPS today on @growthepie_eth, the modular bet is delivering explosive gains after a decade of building.

Welcome to Ethereum’s exponential age.👇

~~ Analysis by @kenzixbt ~~

To be sure, the bulk of this current TPS surge is stemming from Lighter, the newer perps L2 whose custom appchain architecture minimizes what data touches Ethereum.

@Lighter_xyz just posts compressed state diffs and proofs to the L1 while keeping its high-frequency order flow offchain. This zk appchain design is unique in the rollups scene today, but more teams will experiment with this model and extend it in new directions.

Beyond this design evolution, Ethereum's roadmap has plenty of ecosystem-wide advances on the way that will help push performance gains. Foremost to mind is PeerDAS, which the Fusaka upgrade will bring to mainnet next month.

PeerDAS will be a powerful upgrade, as it's projected to facilitate around an 8x increase in Ethereum's blob capacity. With improved data availability, rollups are set to march past 1 million in ecosystem TPS in short order.

For instance, @base hit 1,500 TPS in June 2025 with Ethereum's current blob limits. Blob capacity going up 8x makes 10,000+ TPS feasible for the L2 at some point next year.

This math applies to zk appchains like Lighter, too. If Lighter can handle ~45,000 TPS today, it can potentially pass 350,000 TPS in 2026. Of course, there will be impactful project-level advances as well. ZKsync's upcoming Atlas upgrade has the potential to facilitate 15,000+ TPS for ZK Stack L2s. And that's just one stack and one upgrade.

So yes, Ethereum is scaling horizontally, and the prospects here are impressive. But Ethereum also has considerable vertical scaling potential. There are ongoing efforts, like EIP-7938 and "Lean Ethereum," that can help the L1 reach 10,000 TPS in its own right.

With this "all of the above" approach, we can dream big. We can build a new substrate for all the world's commerce and culture. And all of that builder potential is possible precisely because Ethereum is going tall and wide in its scaling.

This is the endgame: many chains spreading out to the horizon in every direction for any need, all anchored around an incredibly secure and robust network that's worthy of powering an entire civilization.

The progress here is clear. Meanwhile, the Ethereum community will continue to create its own destiny, just as it always has. We know the path forward, and nothing can stop us now.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

It's been one month since Hyperliquid's HIP-3 went live, letting anyone stake 500K $HYPE can now launch custom markets backed by the platform’s deep liquidity.

The result is an exchange where you can long or short anything: stocks via Trade or Felix, commodities, bonds via Aura, pre-IPOs via Ventuals, even Pokémon cards via Trove.

Learn how HIP-3 works and how it make impact Hyperliquid 👇

~~ Analysis by @kenzixbt ~~

The upgrade works like this: a deployer stakes 500K
$HYPE (~$19.3M at time of writing). They can then list three markets for free before entering an auction process to secure additional slots.

For each market they launch, the deployer sets leverage limits, configures the oracle, and manages key technicalities. To ensure acceptable standards, deployers risk having their stake slashed, though Hyperliquid notes this mechanism is temporary and expected to fade as standards and tooling improve.

Once live, the deployer earns 50% of the fees from their markets, with Hyperliquid taking the other half. To balance revenue, HIP-3 market fees are set at double those of standard markets, keeping @HyperliquidX's take roughly equivalent.

While most deployers are still building, early activity from just one HIP-3 market already live — to the tune of $1.3B in volume — paints a positive picture that the upgrade's potential may match its hype.

What Will the Impact of HIP-3 Be?

As a result of how it's designed, HIP-3 introduces new supply crunches on $HYPE, additional revenue for buybacks, and potentially increases rewards earned by stakers and traders.

➢ Locking up $HYPE: Each deployer must stake 500K
$HYPE, effectively removing that amount from circulation. The result is persistent buying pressure as new deployers acquire $HYPE to secure their slots. For example, Trove raised $20M to purchase $HYPE for its launch. Further, Hyperliquid Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) like @HyperionDeFi and @HypeStrat have already begun exploring how to get involved in HIP-3, alleviating the threat of these vehicles dumping their tokens as we're seeing more DATs do.

➢ Additional revenue for buybacks: The 50/50 fee split on HIP-3 markets provides a new inflow to the protocol Assistance Fund, which uses 97% of all fees to buyback its token. Because HIP-3 market fees are set higher than standard ones, this stream will not be reduced by the split in fees with the deployer, potentially offering a significant source for $HYPE buybacks if even a handful of markets achieve sustained volume.

➢ Incentive Wars: A likely next phase is direct competition among deployers for trader flow, especially given the success of @tradexyz's XYZ100 HIP-3 market, which generated $100K in fees before it even reached two weeks. Expect escalating incentive programs — liquidity mining, fee rebates, staking boosts — as providers fight to draw and retain users. These will likely extend to $HYPE stakers too as validators vie for stake to participate in secondary economics like "exchange-as-a-service" models, where staking providers like @kinetiq_xyz
essentially crowdsource $HYPE to lower the cost of launching a market.

Together, these dynamics tighten HYPE's supply, expand its buyback base, and create new competitive layers across the ecosystem.

How Could HIP-3 Fail?

HIP-3's success will depend on two things: quality markets launching, and those markets generating sustained demand.

Permissionless listings don't guarantee quality. A HIP-3 market is only as strong as its deployer — how they configure leverage, oracles, and risk parameters. Deploying non-crypto or thinly traded assets like stocks or bonds requires continuous data and stable pricing. Without that, markets face thin liquidity, wide spreads, and erratic execution that will quickly drive traders away.

Oracle providers like @redstone_defi are building hybrid systems that blend onchain and offchain data, maintaining live pricing even when the base asset isn't trading. HIP-3's architecture allows deployers to implement proper oracles into individual markets and tailor risk parameters accordingly.

But demand remains the harder part. As @felixprotocol's founder Charlie (@0xBroze) notes, the lion's share of Hyperliquid's volume comes from five markets, mostly composed of major assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL. Smaller assets tend to be left with little natural flow, meaning nascent, niche assets launched via HIP-3 will face a cold-start problem. Without early liquidity, traders hesitate; without traders, liquidity providers leave.

If simply introducing novel markets isn't enough to spark activity, deployers will need to experiment with market structures and pairs, introducing new collateral for perps or unique pair-markets like $BTC / $GOLD. Incentive programs should help smooth the initial launch, but in the end, these markets will have to stand on their own.

Ultimately, HIP-3's trajectory depends on the competence of its deployers. The framework is in place, but its outcome will hinge on whether deployers can build markets that trade well and sustain activity.

Final Thoughts

HIP-3 represents another structural bet on decentralization — a next step for Hyperliquid shifting responsibility for growth from the protocol to its participants.

Whether it succeeds will come down to the quality of the markets that launch, the liquidity they attract, and the flywheel effects that follow. If deployers can navigate those early hurdles, HIP-3 could define the next phase of onchain market design.

It doesn't need scale in the traditional sense to succeed. As Charlie noted, just a few high-performing markets could validate the model and materially impact both Hyperliquid's growth and $HYPE's price, with one firm,
@FalconXGlobal, estimating $.8B in additional fees if HIP-3 captures less than one percent of Mag7 derivatives trading.

For the platform that keeps defying expectations, rising from a fully-bootstrapped team to become a protocol responsible for earning 35% of all blockchain revenue some months, the success of HIP-3 wouldn't be something I bet against.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

“We focused on four core areas: finance, gaming, social, and entertainment — but DeFi on @Aptos has seen the strongest traction.”

@sachitakahara sits down with @averyching to unpack Aptos’ real-world use cases and why DeFi has emerged as the breakout category: the safety of Move, the composability that allows products to plug into larger protocols, and an ecosystem that is now beginning to hit meaningful momentum.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

“Bitcoin was the first distributed systems paper I read with an economic layer built into it — and that changed everything.”

@kenzixbt catches up with @averyching, Co-Founder & CTO of @Aptos, to trace his journey from high-performance computing and supercomputers, to scaling data infrastructure at Meta, to discovering Bitcoin and realizing that crypto was distributed systems with incentives natively embedded — the insight that ultimately led him to co-found Aptos Labs.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

“What inspires you to get up and build every day? For me, it’s pushing Web3 forward — making blockchain a true public utility for everyone.”

@dikshaarden sits down with @averyching (Co-Founder & CTO of @Aptos) to talk about what drives him: building the next era of the internet where blockchain brings ownership back to users and enables permissionless, trustless transactions that connect people globally.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

New episode out today featuring @AveryChing - Co-Founder & CTO of @Aptos.

We explore the intersection of crypto and Al, Aptos' fundraising journey, how the network compares to other Layer 1s such as Solana and Ethereum, and what lies ahead for the Move programming language.

Avery also shares his perspective on decentralized use cases, Aptos' long-term ambitions, and how more than a decade spent scaling distributed systems at Meta — including his work on the Diem blockchain — continues to shape his vision for the future of Web3 infrastructure.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

Private speculators are FOMOing into billion-dollar raises for platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi at nosebleed valuations, but they're overlooking the real profit play hiding in plain sight: DraftKings.

This betting behemoth is primed to dominate with its massive retail reach and sports edge.

Here’s why DraftKings could rule the prediction playground.👇

~~ Opinion by @dikshaarden ~~

Prediction Market King?

DraftKings, a popular online multi-national sports gambling platform, went public on the Nasdaq Exchange via SPAC in April 2020 under the ticker symbol DKNG.

At market close on October 29, DKNG carried a $15.2B market capitalization, only a hair more than the $15B private market valuation that prediction market upstart Polymarket was reported as pursuing just the week prior.

DraftKings Background

DKNG stock had been performing well off the January 2023 broad market bottom, registering gains of over 400% as company revenues swelled alongside economic optimism. DraftKings' fortunes took a sharp turn last month as shares shed one-third of their value into late October as pronounced fears of prediction market competition compounded on widespread weakness plaguing gambling sector stocks.

In an obvious attempt to combat this share price decline, DraftKings announced last Thursday that it had acquired Railbird Technologies Inc. and its CFTC-regulated exchange subsidiary, a move that will enable DraftKings to directly compete with prediction markets by offering its own regulated event contracts.

Along with the acquisition, DraftKings is slated to release a mobile app that allows users to trade regulated event contracts spanning finance, culture, entertainment, and more. The platform will integrate across multiple exchanges (including Polymarket) to provide bettors access to the broadest suites of prediction markets available, with Polymarket serving as DraftKings' designated clearinghouse.

Prediction Market Context

The launch of legal prediction markets throughout the United States was made possible by Kalshi's landmark September 2024 legal victory against the CFTC, which cleared the way for registered prediction markets to self-certify event contracts for trading nationwide without prior CFTC approval.

Prediction markets may have first achieved widespread recognition during the 2024 U.S. general election, but they blossomed in 2025 with their adoption of sports event contracts. Sports gambling has become big business on Polymarket and Kalshi, which respectively process upwards of 30% and 90% of their weekly trading volumes as sporting event contracts on a consistent basis.

Sports Contract Legality

Prediction markets have freely listed sports event contracts under self-certification powers, but there's no clear legal basis for it.

Under the Commodity Exchange Act, the CFTC can prohibit contracts "contrary to the public interest" and explicitly deems "gaming" contracts as prohibited. While the term was contested in Kalshi v. CFTC, that court wasn't tasked with determining whether sports contracts involve gaming, leaving the matter open.

The Trump-era CFTC is unlikely to block prediction markets, but sports contracts have angered entrenched interests. Gaming lobbies and tribal groups are pressuring to quash sports event contracts, while state gambling commissions have issued cease-and-desist orders, arguing prediction marketplaces operate as unlicensed gambling venues.

Prediction marketplaces claim federal regulation supersedes state law under the Constitution's supremacy clause. Still, without clarity on whether sports contracts constitute prohibited "gaming," prediction markets without state licenses appear to rely on unproven legal theory.

Undervalued Opportunity?

Amid billion-dollar venture checks chasing prediction markets, it's ironic to see DKNG getting sold off while up-and-comers command premium valuations.

DraftKings already holds state gambling licenses across the U.S., a regulatory advantage difficult for Polymarket and Kalshi to match. It operates on clear legal footings and boasts four times as many users as both combined, yet trades at a similar valuation.

Whether sports prediction markets are ultimately legalized may have minimal bearing on DraftKings' staying power, as it already controls around one-third of the U.S. sports gambling market.

If sports event contracts are banned, DraftKings falls back on traditional gambling. If state licenses become required, it entrenches its regulatory moat. If mania persists unchecked, DraftKings has scale to capture demand.

Global sports betting markets were ~$100B in 2024 and are expected to reach $187B by 2030, implying 11% annual growth.

While this analysis focused on DraftKings, the largest sports gambling venue and only company with declared prediction market intentions, many arguments apply to similarly beleaguered sports books like FanDuel parent Flutter.

Additionally, while regulated sports books appear poised to outperform prediction markets without state licenses, this doesn't guarantee good absolute returns, particularly given sector-wide weakness.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

Last week you might have seen Jesse's post about an agent called Oracle by Noice.

It read: if you like this tweet, you buy Oracle. Whether it worked for you isn't important — it's what Oracle envisions that you should pay attention to.

But first let's understand exactly what Oracle is and how it works.

~~ Analysis by @punk4053 ~~

Developed by the @noicedotso team (the same group behind the viral tipping app on Farcaster), the oracle @noiceagent is a new solution for buying predetermined amounts of whitelisted Internet Capital Markets (ICM) tokens across Base and Solana directly on Twitter by simply liking or replying to a tweet from oracle agent which mentions a specific ticker.

(Tokens are whitelisted when the agent tweets about them, and can be submitted for consideration via DM.)

Of course you need to set the agent up first which can be done on their website:

- You connect your Twitter
- Fund your wallet on Base or SOL
- Set the default buy amount, just like you would with Noice previously
- Start liking Oracle's tweets to buy tokens

There are two types of buys: regular spends, triggered by liking tweets, and super aligned buys, triggered by commenting "aligned" under an Oracle tweet.

The platform also has its own token, ORACLE, which is paired with NOICE. The Noice team has stated that the ORACLE token is simply meant to be a proving ground for the platform, rather than the central component of it. However, it does operate from a $20K treasury, charges a 1% swap fee on both likes and "aligned" buys, and uses all realized profits and fees to buy back and burn ORACLE.

While eliminating friction may be interesting to some, what has my attention here is how Oracle looks set up to be an emerging curation layer.

In its vision, Oracle details an upcoming scout program, where users can tag Oracle to identify new founders for Noice and earn from successful referrals. Selected founders, in turn, would be able to launch tokens directly through Oracle and embed buy actions into their own timelines, just like we can now do with Oracle.

Further, given the @jessepollak beta trial, I expect this could extend to not just founders, but also to CT personalities, though I could very much be wrong.

Closing Thoughts

While Oracle is a fun mechanism, I still hold skepticism, given that similar experiments, most notably Solana Blinks, tried to embed blockchain-native actions into Twitter and failed to take off.

Granted, Blinks did depend on stricter user requirements, including Phantom installation and specific feature toggles, which may have limited its reach. Oracle's simplicity could give it a different trajectory.

That said, beyond taking a shot on a bigger court, a defensible instinct, I'm still unsure why Noice prioritized Twitter over @farcaster_xyz, which feels structurally better suited to this behavior and is also where Noice has already shown traction.

Overall, Oracle reads as a proof of the (seemingly) most promising development trends in crypto right now: AI and internet-capital markets. It emerges from genuine momentum and demonstrates the expansion a team can pursue once they've developed a product actually in demand. I'm excited to see what will come.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

Amid Venezuela's suspicious Polymarket win, Rep. Ritchie Torres is fast-tracking his bill to bar officials from trading on nonpublic info.

Here's why getting prediction market rules right could shape their future as trusted tools — or exploits for our political elites.👇

~~ Analysis by @kenzixbt ~~

The Political Case

The argument for restricting public officials is straightforward: if politicians can legally profit from bets on outcomes they directly influence or have advance knowledge of, it twists incentives and erodes the already near-record low public trust in the U.S. government.

This dynamic already plays out in traditional securities markets, where the STOCK Act of 2012 was supposed to address congressional insider trading. The results have been underwhelming. Despite the law's existence, examples of suspicious trading by members of Congress have continued to surface with regularity:

- Senator Richard Burr sold $1.7M in stock immediately following a classified COVID-19 briefing; the DOJ later dropped the investigation without charges.
- Senator Kelly Loeffler offloaded millions in assets after the same confidential pandemic warning, yet faced no legal consequences when federal probes concluded.
- Senator Tommy Tuberville traded millions in defense contractor stocks and violated the STOCK Act's reporting deadline 132 times, yet faced no significant consequences.

Since the STOCK Act passed in 2012, not a single member of Congress has been prosecuted under its provisions, while the penalty for concealing trades is a trivial $200 fee, which ethics committees routinely waive.

Prediction markets present an even more direct temptation. Unlike stock trading, where connections between policy decisions and price movements can be complex and deniable, prediction markets offer explicit bets on government actions. Will a military intervention occur? Will a bill pass? The path from insider knowledge to profit proves incredibly clear.

While the specifics are still unclear, @RitchieTorres bill reportedly extends STOCK Act principles to prediction markets, hopefully with greater, more meaningful enforcement. Legal frameworks matter and must be established. Without clear rules explicitly covering prediction markets, prosecuting suspicious trades becomes even harder.

Why It Matters for Prediction Markets

The broader issue extends way beyond politicians.

Prediction markets generated over $44B in combined trading volume in 2025. They've proven their value as information aggregation tools — Polymarket's accuracy during the 2024 election cycle demonstrated what these platforms can do when they function properly.

Functionally, insider participation doesn't necessarily break these markets. The transparency of blockchain-based platforms means suspicious positions are visible. Traders can tail wallets showing unusual activity. Information still gets priced in, even if the source is questionable.

But reputation is a different matter. Prediction markets are still fighting for legitimacy with regulators, institutions, and the broader public. If the prevailing narrative becomes that these platforms are just another vehicle for connected insiders to profit from privileged information, the policy progression and mainstream adoption get harder when every major market move triggers headlines about who knew what and when.

There's also a pragmatic concern: if today's broadly crypto-friendly regulators don't work with platforms to address these issues, hostile administrations of the future could do so with a much heavier hand. The window for self-regulation and productive collaboration is now.

The Path Forward

None of this means prediction markets need heavy-handed regulation across the board. Skepticism toward regulatory overreach is warranted. But there's a meaningful difference between resisting regulatory capture and acknowledging that certain narrow restrictions serve everyone's interests.

Legally barring public officials from betting on outcomes they can influence falls squarely in the latter category. Few believe politicians should have new avenues to monetize their positions. The broader crypto community, which arose in part as a check against establishment abuse, has reason to support exactly this kind of accountability.

We don't yet know the full details of Torres's bill. The specifics will matter. But the direction is right. Prediction markets work because they aggregate dispersed information into prices, and that function can survive some insider activity. The bigger risk is reputational: repeated incidents of apparent insider trading invite the kind of regulatory scrutiny that could constrain the industry far more than targeted rules around public officials ever would.

The honest reality is that this behavior will likely continue regardless of what rules get passed. Enforcement is hard. Proving intent is harder.

But there's much to be said for establishing clear norms and for the transparency that blockchain-based markets provide. Every trade on Polymarket is visible. Wallet activity can be tracked. The same infrastructure that enables suspicious trades also enables scrutiny of them. Researchers and journalists can monitor for patterns. Communities can call out suspicious activity in real time.

These are formative years for these technologies, which, if stewarded well, will reshape how we aggregate information about uncertain futures. Getting the foundations right matters. Ensuring that government officials can't exploit these tools for personal profit seems like a reasonable place to start.

[BlockLayer Podcast @BlockLayerCast]

Takeover: The Onchain Fee Market You Can Fight Over

Takeover gamifies trading fees on Base through Harberger taxation—creating a market where 100 tiles representing 1% fee shares are perpetually for sale. Holders must pay 5% weekly taxes to maintain control while traders compete to snipe mispriced assets.

Here's how the mechanism works 👇

~~ Analysis by @kenzixbt ~~

The Harberger Mechanism

@flaunchgg stands out for paying creator fees in ETH and tokenizing revenue streams as NFTs. Takeover builds on this infrastructure to create a PvP market for trading fees.

Every coin launched gets a 100-tile grid. Each tile represents a 1% claim on all trading fees paid in ETH. Own a tile to earn from every trade—until someone buys you out.

Harberger Tax. Tiles use Harberger taxation to ensure continuous circulation. Owners must set public prices, allowing anyone to buy instantly at that price with no negotiation.

Tax Structure. Holders post USDC deposits and pay a 5% weekly tax based on their listed price. These taxes fund $TAKEOVER buybacks through the Boardroom. Deposits must remain funded—run out and you forfeit the tile to the open market.

The Strategic Dimension

Success requires accurate pricing. Each tile has a fundamental value based on its parent coin's fee generation.

At the 5% weekly tax rate, a tile generating $10 in weekly fees has an equilibrium price around $200—where tax costs equal income. Price too high and carrying costs drain your deposit; too low and someone snipes your tile.

This equilibrium shifts constantly with trading volume. Dying coins become expensive to hold; runners attract bidding wars. Profitability depends on predicting volume trends and adjusting prices or exits accordingly.

How to Try for Yourself

Newcomers should buy into existing grids before launching new coins. The $FLNCHY grid (Flaunch's mascot) routes 80% of trading fees to tile holders, making it an ideal starting point.

> Browse. Find a listed tile on the 100-tile grid. The $FLNCHY floor currently sits at 68 USDC.

>Buy. Input your listing price and deposit duration. Total cost equals buyout price plus initial tax deposit. Confirm the transaction.

> Monitor. Earn 1% of trading fees in real-time ETH payouts. Adjust listing prices defensively as volume changes to prevent sniping.

Zooming Out

Takeover represents one of the first live tests of Harberger taxation with calculable yield—where mispricing delivers immediate financial consequences. AI agents are expected to join the competition soon, accelerating this economic experiment into a larger battlefield for automated strategies.