purealpha

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@zerohedge @OnaBreakZZZ That’s how fractal geometry works

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@jun_song The true yen carry trade

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@ConstantGTA @grok fact check this – it’s wrong lol

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@ZeeContrarian1 Correlations have always been time-varying

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@zerohedge wdym “is”?

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@deepvaluebettor @eliqian agreed that most people don’t know what it means… and diff kinds of alpha depending on which asset pricing model you use/factors you include… again, goes back to pov… in financial markets, someone’s negative alpha is attributable to another’s positive alpha

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@deepvaluebettor @eliqian Wealth creation/capital being “productive” doesn’t negate the existence of alpha… it’s just that alpha isn’t necessarily measurable/easiest to measure… often left out of the discussion… dependent on how one chooses to view the markets… capital productivity pov, alpha pov, etc

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@eliqian @deepvaluebettor Right… but productive (not sure how you’re defining this) doesn’t make it not zero-sum. I guess would depend on pov… in CAPM/asset pricing model world, which is what I’m referring to in talking about alpha, financial markets are strictly zero-sum unless assets are fairly priced

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@deepvaluebettor @eliqian Wait… how are financial markets not zero sum? Curious… feel like the only way that that would be true is if the asset is fairly priced. In all other scenarios, where assets are mispriced, someone’s positive alpha is at the expensive of someone’s negative alpha

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@TheLongInvest yeah it’s called mean reversion

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@TheLongInvest Could be better R/R though on a risk-adjusted basis

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@TonyTheBullCMT Your framing is w/o proper context. The question you should be asking yourself when looking at historicals is “Why?” e.g., Covid in 2020 & signs of weakness e.g., Bear Sterns 2007, and then comp’ing it to current set-up. Also, this isn’t the first cut of the cycle

[purealpha @purealphaload]

6 Humble yourselves, therefore, under God’s mighty hand, that he may lift you up in due time. 7 Cast all your anxiety on him because he cares for you.

1 Peter 5:6-8 (NIV)

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@Speculator_io Right… It’s all fun and games until those forward estimates get revised down; then, you have yourself a bubble

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@deltaone_mentor @WhaleInsider Still proving my point. 25bps fully priced in. >25bps not fully priced in ~10%. You can't imply a “Sell the News” event on 25bps because we might see a 50bps, which the market is hardly pricing in. That's my point

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@deltaone_mentor @WhaleInsider I'm saying that there might not be a “Sell the News” event since the market is not fully pricing in a >25bps cut. Its fully pricing in a 25bps, but anything above would be variance relative to consensus. At ~110%, it appears as though my statement hold true

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@deltaone_mentor @WhaleInsider I've seen this already. What are you trying to convey? All I see is certainty on 25bps cut and less than certainty ~10% on > 1 cut

[purealpha @purealphaload]

@deltaone_mentor @WhaleInsider + not so much market psychology. Just market fundamentals (i.e., asset prices are forward-looking)