Christian Purefoy

I'm on here because my wife does *not* want to hear about it.

Energy | ex-CNN West Africa | Amebo no be crime

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

The #IranWar has been a complete disaster for America and “the West”.

There have now been two defining battles for the West: the Ukraine counter-offensive and the Iran war. The West lost both. Its exhausted money and munitions, its enemies know its weaknesses, new tech (like drones) have altered the battlefield, and globalisation + supply chains act also as a weakness in a war against enemies who don’t care/can hold out with resources of their own, Russia and China alliance unbroken, now Middle East energy assets exposed, etc.

This is not “the end” — the West’s enemies have enormous problems of their own — and I still believe in America and its dynamism. But something is broken: NATO and US-Europe alliance is fatally cracked, “no-go” zones across the world are leeching out, the US can’t contain regional threats, and economic crises threaten internal stability of all major powers. The 20th century is now over.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TRUMP SAYS “I THINK THE (IRAN) WAR IS VERY COMPLETE, PRETTY MUCH" - CBS REPORTER ON X, CITING AN INTERVIEW

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@DonMiami3 He’s got nothing to escalate with… the only thing is US troops.

If he lands the 82nd Airborne Division with no support, he won’t be president for much longer.

So he’d need to call up hundreds of thousands of men for a “third” Iraq, but in a country shaped like a fortress.

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@MarioNawfal How the US went *back* into Iran so soon with what appears to be no new plan / any expectations that Iran adapted anyway / or just how to deal with drones and missiles attacking military and energy infrastructure.

It’s a systemic crisis.

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@JavierBlas @jekavanagh This is a systemic crisis for the US. A political and military and economic disaster that continues to unfold.

Most concerning is that alarm bells should be ringing in Washington, but there seems to be nothing but silence.

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

It may not look like it right now, but chances of Trump not seeing out full term are accelerating.

Once house of cards falls apart with dead American soldiers, soaring gas costs, broken economy, defeat in Middle East, etc — it’ll be Republicans that remove him, not Democrats.

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 JUST IN: The White House has called a LID while President Trump is in NJ as US military strikes are expected against Iran, following the death of 2 American servicemembers

Pray for ALL of our troops in the region. Tonight could be intense 🙏🏻

FOX: "There are likely going to be strikes this evening."

"It's likely those strikes are being carried out as we speak." @LucasFoxNews

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

This is a disaster. It was a disaster of gobsmacking incompetence. Now it’s turning into a very dark disaster.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Trump has ordered US CENTCOM to open "the gates of hell" upon Iran after US casualties in Jordan, US officials tell NPR. Another US official tells CBS News tonight's US attacks will be much more extensive and larger than previous nights.

An early lid has just been issued at the White House.

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@PolitlcsUK A bit like No.10 in the North is actually just Burnham on a train with no internet access.

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

I don't think any of the parties are really prepared for an election now - especially Labour - but my "feel" is the Conservatives are already most prepared in terms of candidates and fresh ideas (reports that 2000 candidates applied in latest round?!)... and, yup, in 2 years the Tories will be even more prepared. I suspect The Conservative Party itself is also already in more cohesive position than many realise.

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@JavierBlas @peterfrankopan The decision-making process in The White House seems completely broken... why?

I blame the “Financialization-of-Everything” theory👇

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

The oil price manipulation by Trump is literally fiddling (the numbers) while Rome burns.

The market is there as a system valve to correct bad decisions. What happens when it’s not only broken, but deliberately so?

I’m a believer in the Zero-Interest-Rate-Theory-of-Everything. It rotted our politics, institutions, culture, etc. Money had no value so nothing had value.

Now to oil prices. When you live in a financially-manipulated market, it also impacts everything (from political decisions to public awareness, etc).

Hearing a lot of people see chart below and think real world oil shock is not serious, that this is not one of biggest oil shocks in history, that manipulation means 5D Chess is easy and everywhere. And even though Trump et al _know_ it’s manipulated (they’re the ones doing it!) it will still impact their thinking on rgds the #IranWar (as well as other actions), eg the idea it can be easily manipulated, managed, maybe prolonged, with easy ways out.

It all works until it doesn’t and starts producing very (very) bad results, just like zero interest rates.

The oil price might be low but that does *not* mean oil is getting through with global impact (just one example: Japan gets 80-90% of its crude from Middle East and is pretty much begging for SPR to be released)

It might be a slow burn (it’s already been burning for a while), or it might be a big bang.

And if you think they’re just doing this with the oil price…

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

I think Burnham’s only hope is an early election BUT that his hopes of winning that have fallen much further/faster than I expected. So risk is v high. And I don’t think Labour Party would countenance it (so probably fall apart during the election).

Farage is a mess.

I think Kemi already in stronger position than many realise… esp so when/if put up in white heat of election campaign when most voters switch on and start comparing those on stage.

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

If Burnham still has not told/decided who is next Chancellor, how are they supposed to prepare?

So, then they get the job and are told to implement his agenda (that’s his words: agenda before positions)

And then, apparently, he won’t be around to personally discuss/approve the agenda because he’s either on a “Summer (vibes) Tour” or in Manchester half the week. (And, no, you can’t do this on Zoom)

Gotta say, the mechanics of this are not looking great.

[BBC Politics @BBCPolitics]

Andy Burnham planning summer tour of UK in early weeks as PM https://t.co/TGKGS7b1fW

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@Peston Andy Burnham and his “plan” are two years too late…

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

Hormuz Tanker Vessels Crossings July 17
(chart: Bloomberg)

that is going well

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@andyburnham @JohnRentoul I am Burnham, I contain platitudes.

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@WONGthink “That is why I sought Risk Assessments”

We are being run by the HR department 👇

[Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire]

Full text of (long) Burnham email to Labour MPs on the new regime

- Cabinet expected to “prioritise PLP engagement”
- Whips office as “HR department”
- No more legislation presented as “fait accomplit” by ministers and officials

(1/2)

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

Something wicked this way comes…

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

The 3-2-1 refining margin just broke its own record again. 59 dollars a barrel is old news. It just printed 67.84.

That is more than 5 times the multi decade average of roughly 13 dollars a barrel, and the highest print on record going back to 1994.

Refining margins are not just elevated anymore.

They are compounding.

https://t.co/FnWkWuj3Jq

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@GuidoFawkes The only important thing about this: does it tell us more about Wes Streeting or Andy Burnham.

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@Steven_Swinford "I have no spur to prick the sides of my intent, but only vaulting ambition, which o'erleaps itself and falls on th'other”

— Ed Miliband, 2010 & 2026

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@nicolelampert This would suggest that McSweeney's and Starmer's attempt to fix the "morally broken" (McSweeney's words) Labour Party have (also) failed.

I wonder if Burnham might invite Corbyn back into the party.

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@kitty_donaldson 🤣 Ed Miliband after his latest "betrayal" getting foreign secretary to keep him as far from any serious decisions as possible would be hilarious.

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@andrew_lilico ... and with such a sheer cliff of incoming crises to which they seem completely oblivious... 🤷‍♂️

[Christian Purefoy @PurefoyAmebo]

@staunovo