Jennifer Kavanagh

Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis @Defpriorities. Formerly @CarnegieEndow @RANDCorporation. Tweets on U.S. defense policy & military strategy.

[Jennifer Kavanagh @jekavanagh]

Article 5-style guarantees to Ukraine are unrealistic, non-credible, & won't secure peace.

My new report outlines Kyiv's best alternative & the most feasible path to a sustainable armistice: armed non-alignment that leaves Ukraine's military as its primary security guarantee.

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

“The United States has not defeated Iran, and thus cannot dictate a victor’s terms or expect Iran’s total capitulation,” argue @jekavanagh and @RKelanic. Achieving a deal will likely require “uncomfortable U.S. concessions.”
https://t.co/LDNsXMe6JX

[Kelley B. Vlahos @KelleyBVlahos]

Netanyahu and Lindsey say its fine to shut down the $3.8B a year in military aid to Israel. They don't tell you how they will make it up— by "partnering" with the US military directly.

It begins here.

This is an alarming read by @BenFreemanDC
https://t.co/QzQmlvwTln

[Saagar Enjeti @esaagar]

It will take 5+ years to replace 39 days of munitions used in the Iran war

What an absolute disaster

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

NEW @ForeignAffairs op-ed by DEFP's @RKelanic and @jekavanagh:

The least bad—and only viable—option is a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and achieves some Iranian nuclear concessions in return for guarantees of security and economic recovery. https://t.co/JhCcZiyb28

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

“A narrow path to a deal still exists, but it will require U.S. concessions, on both the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear file,” write @jekavanagh and @RKelanic.
https://t.co/LDNsXMe6JX

[Responsible Statecraft @RStatecraft]

FULL video: Last week's realist debate over the true spirit and practice of the "Donroe Doctrine" -- great conversation co-hosted w/ @CPInst in DC w/ @GeorgeBeebe13 @jekavanagh @ToryAnarchist @katherinet57 w/ @KelleyBVlahos moderating!
https://t.co/NRQy6EwZZF

[The Washington Post @washingtonpost]

U.S. arms sales to Taiwan have been “paused,” a senior U.S. military official said, fueling concerns among lawmakers and Taiwanese officials that President Trump’s support for the democratically governed island is wavering. https://t.co/yaQs8y1NqH

[Ryan Hass @ryanl_hass]

For anyone interested in hearing a PRC perspective on Trump's visit, and why Beijing seems so satisfied with the summit, this podcast is worth a listen. The conversation features Da Wei (@mawangcun1), Xie Tao, Shao Yuqun, and Zhou Bo.

[Department of State @StateDept]

SECRETARY RUBIO: It’s well understood in NATO that U.S. troop presence in Europe is going to be adjusted.

We have obligations in the Indo-Pacific. We have obligations in the Middle East. We have obligations in the Western Hemisphere.

[Jennifer Kavanagh @jekavanagh]

My point is that it is an assumption.

The debate around U.S. posture in Europe starts from the premise: More U.S. forces means more deterrence, and more forces closer to the Russian border means more deterrence. But we have no evidence this is true.

What if it's the opposite? What if more forces close the border trigger escalation? What if the number of U.S. forces isn't what deters at all? A real debate would be honest about what we know and what we don't and seek out real evidence to make better policy decisions.

[Jennifer Kavanagh @jekavanagh]

This is an assumption. There’s no actual evidence that 5000 troops affects deterrence.

[Steven Erlanger @StevenErlanger]

whatever the motivation, it's good for deterrence.

[Curt Mills @CurtMills]

but no “guardrails” to stop insane unconstitutional wars, those are fine https://t.co/AUp9Jw4ksz

[Jennifer Kavanagh @jekavanagh]

@JustinTLogan I mean I am kinda.

[Jennifer Kavanagh @jekavanagh]

@JustinTLogan No one has any clue. But now it looks like European states are fighting with each other for US forces on their territory. I’m super confident about “European defense” now.

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

Director of Military Analysis @jekavanagh joined @CatoInstitute's policy forum to discuss the U.S. troop withdrawal from Germany, also featuring @JustinTLogan, @LianaFix, and @katherinet57.

Watch the event here: https://t.co/5i7E4nV3B0

[Anthony Adragna @AnthonyAdragna]

NEWS: The Senate votes to discharge @timkaine's Iran war powers resolution by a 50 to 47 vote in a major rebuke of President Trump's war.

*FOUR* Republicans — Collins, Murkowski, Paul and **Cassidy** — join with Dems in support.

@JohnFetterman the lone Democrat to oppose.

[Justin Logan @JustinTLogan]

Been a long time coming.

Policy will reflect “what’s in Europe is in Europe, but nothing else is coming.”

[Gram Slattery @G_Slattery]

Scoop:

The Trump admin is planning to tell NATO allies this week that it will shrink the pool of military capabilities the US would have available to assist European nations in a major crisis, like an invasion of a NATO member, sources said

w @JonathanLanday @andrew_r_gray

[Nicholas Drummond @nicholadrummond]

Not so long ago, everyone was saying that UAS like the MQ-9 Reaper were the future, but the USA just lost 24 in Iran. Costing between $30-40 million depending on sensor fit, that's a cool $840 million down the drain.
Two points to make about this:
1⃣Royal Navy: Do you still want MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones as AEW systems for the carriers? If so, you had better triple your order.
2⃣ The success Iran has achieved in shooting down US drones has been equalled by America and Israel's corresponding success shooting down Shaheds. Placing all your money on drones could soon be an expensive way to achieve very little.
(H/T to @benmoores2)

[Jennifer Kavanagh @jekavanagh]

U.S. force posture in Europe is a hot topic these days. Join as at 11a @CatoInstitute for a lively debate.

[Cato Foreign Policy @CatoFP]

Join the @CatoInstitute TODAY at 11:00 am EST, for a policy forum: "Should the United States Withdraw Troops from Germany?"
Panelists will include @CatoFP’s @JustinTLogan, @katherinet57, and @LianaFix and @jekavanagh, followed by a reception!

Register here to join in-person or online:
https://t.co/u8Bk31VdYk