Ali Wyne

Senior Research and Advocacy Advisor for U.S.-China Relations, @CrisisGroup | Author, “America’s Great-Power Opportunity” (Polity, 2022) | #GoAvsGo

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

THREAD: I appreciate @KaiserKuo’s giving me the opportunity to share some thoughts on the latest episode of the @SinicaPodcast.

We covered several topics in the wake of the Trump-Xi summit, for which Kaiser has kindly provided timestamps.

https://t.co/IDMrmzXIci

[1/6]

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

@mitchpresnick @AsiaPolicy Big congrats, Mitch!

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

.@tejparikh90 “Western nations need a better way to allocate their finite resources. One option is to lean into their own institutional comparative advantages.”

https://t.co/bBwNPsGvPQ

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

.@brhodes writes in his new book that “the most powerful words spoken by Americans consistently highlight the gap between who we are and who we aspire to be, and demand that we do the hard work of closing that gap” (p. 376)

https://t.co/uy3LJMkrFE

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

Welcome aboard, @jenifermvaughan! Grateful to call you a colleague.

[Jenifer Vaughan @jenifermvaughan]

Finishing my first week at @CrisisGroup —an organisation I’ve long admired & am now incredibly grateful to be a part of.

For work-related matters, you can reach me at my new email:📩 [email protected]

My mobile number remains the same.

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

@PaulJHeer Agreed on both counts.

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

A power transition between the United States and China is less likely than a fraught cohabitation; while Beijing wants to reshape certain aspects of the current order, it’s unclear that it has the capacity or desire to underpin an alternative on its own.

https://t.co/kWPBcqGnWa

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

A key task for President Trump’s top advisors, including Secretaries Rubio and Hegseth, is to convince U.S. allies and partners in Asia that as the United States rightly pursues “a stable peace” with China, Trump won’t discount their security concerns to advance an informal “G2.”

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

Secretary Hegseth: “[R]elations between the United States and China are better than they’ve been in many years....[Presidents Trump and Xi] agreed that the United States and China should build a constructive relationship of strategic stability based on fairness and reciprocity.”

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

Yes!

@FareedZakaria “The more powerful AI becomes, the more we may rediscover how much we value the distinctly human.”

https://t.co/Tn2XBIcIkI

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

My colleague @le2huong tells @damiencave that Vietnam belongs to a “league of countries in [Asia] that are not passively waiting for the new regional or global order to be shaped—they want to take an active role.”

https://t.co/vSU6tFwzuj

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

The intensity with which Claude Lemieux played hockey is one of the reasons why I fell in love with the game as a kid; I’ll never forget how instrumental he was in helping the Avalanche win the Stanley Cup in 1996.

May he rest—and skate—in peace.

https://t.co/Ci0svqniRe

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

According to a March 9-13 @SearchlightInst/@HartSurveys survey, 29% of Americans 18-34 want the United States to “[s]tand up to China and work with our allies to limit their power”; 62% want it to “[c]ooperate with China and improve U.S.-China relations.”

https://t.co/wv9txW84Ju

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

.@ConstantinoX makes an important point: the momentum behind U.S.-India ties would likely slow if U.S.-China ties were to stabilize or if Washington were to question the contributions that Delhi could and would make to counterbalancing Beijing.

https://t.co/2jjxguLR4M

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

Senator @ChrisMurphyCT writes near the end of his new book, published today, that “kindness doesn’t need an audience to do its work” (p. 263).

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

Great piece by @SoumayaKeynes

“We might hope that, once weaponized, market dominance will prove fleeting. But experience suggests that it can take a long time to erode. And in the meantime, trade wars will rage.”

https://t.co/se5SVh5mWu

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

When U.S. pressure campaigns, whether military or economic, don’t achieve their stated objectives, observers should resist the instinct to conclude that sound policies were simply applied with insufficient vigor; they should ask instead if the policies themselves were misguided.

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

@MarcielScot I suspect that he and perhaps even Xi hadn’t appreciated China’s power to absorb and counter U.S. pressure.

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

While many of President Trump’s advisors probably regard “constructive strategic stability” as a rhetorical-cum-policy trap, the White House’s response has likely been muted because the framework aligns with Trump’s belief in the possibility of cooperative U.S.-China relations.

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

Agreed; due to his foreign policy missteps, he has inadvertently stumbled into a more realistic appreciation of China’s power to absorb and counter U.S. pressure.

[Robert Manning @Rmanning4]

What if the Summit reflected Trump, chastened by the magnet/critical minerals cutoff, trying to come to terms with the reality of Chinese power?

[Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne]

Fantastic news!

[Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations @PennUSChina]

We are delighted to welcome 3 new Contributors to our project community: Leah Anderson, the executive director of @SNFPaideia; Mark Lambert, the former head of “China House” at the U.S. State Department; and @SchneidermanDM of @PennWashDC.
Read more here: https://t.co/0IeuUM5SXm