Purna Cita Nugraha

Peace-Broker

[Purna Cita Nugraha @purnacita]

The Side Project - Best Regret

Song by @purnacita
Lyrics by @purnacita
Bands are @purnacita @elliotpierre @vicms10

Guitar & Vox by @purnacita
Drum @elliotpierre
lead guitar @vicms10

All rights reserved ©️2021

[Prastowo Yustinus @prastow]

Gubernur BI Perry Warjiyo Mengundurkan Diri - Nasional https://t.co/SUZICwu4wg

[Bloomberg @business]

Iranians formed human chains at power plants and key infrastructure sites Tuesday following threats from President Donald Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by midnight or face civilizational destruction https://t.co/8U45QxeU8L

[sarah @sahouraxo]

Israel killed 3 Indonesian UN peacekeepers in South Lebanon.

They were wearing blue helmets.
They were in UN uniforms.
They were peacekeepers.

Israel bombed them anyway.

Not a peep in Western media.
Not a word from the international community.

Kick Israel out of the UN.

[Middle East Monitor @MiddleEastMnt]

"Three Indonesian soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon in less than 48 hours. They were not fighters. They were part of a United Nations peacekeeping mission (UNIFIL). They were stationed in known positions. And still, they died.

This is not a tragic accident. It is a clear signal.

The sequence of events matters. On 29th March, a projectile struck a UN position near Adchit al-Qusayr, killing one Indonesian peacekeeper and critically injuring another. Hours later, a second incident—an explosion that destroyed a UN vehicle near Bani Hayyan—killed two more.

Three dead. In uniform. Under a UN flag.

The Israeli military says it is “reviewing” what happened and emphasises that these deaths occurred in an “active combat zone.” But that explanation is not convincing. UNIFIL positions are fixed, mapped, and communicated to all parties. Peacekeepers are not hidden actors. They are the most visible neutral presence in any conflict zone.

If they are being hit, it is not because they cannot be seen. It is because they are being disregarded.

That distinction matters. Because it speaks directly to intent.

Since early March, Israel has expanded its military campaign in Lebanon, pushing deeper into the south and openly pursuing a buffer zone up to the Litani River. This is not a limited operation. It is a widening one. It has already killed more than 1,200 people in Lebanon and displaced many more.

Peacekeepers are now operating inside a battlefield that is expanding by design.

And this is the point: states that are preparing for peace do not expand war zones. They do not normalize strikes in areas populated by international forces. They do not repeatedly hit locations that are clearly marked as neutral.

Israel’s conduct in Lebanon is not consistent with a state seeking de-escalation. It is consistent with one prioritizing military objectives over diplomatic constraints."

#Opinion by Dr. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat

https://t.co/ILAgPBhGHb

[Reuters @Reuters]

US paper currency will bear President Trump's signature starting this summer, the first time a sitting president has signed American money, the Treasury Department said https://t.co/lZzSjFM2xd

[Bloomberg @business]

Indonesian stocks recorded their biggest foreign outflow in more than two decades, likely driven by block trades in palm oil maker FAP Agri, amid heightened scrutiny on ownership in the wake of MSCI’s investability concerns https://t.co/vcz3yJil3U

[Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara]

Indonesia just sent a massive shockwave by ditching the US Harpoon and French Exocet to buy 45 Turkish Atmaca missiles.

Why? Because Turkey shares technology and supports local industries, unlike Western powers. A brilliant strategic alliance is forming.

[Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi]

Selamat Hari Raya Idulfitri. Terima kasih kpd pemerintah & masyarakat Muslim serta pencinta keadilan di Asia Tenggara (Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei) yg mengecam agresi brutal Amerika Serikat dan rezim Zionis terhadap bangsa Muslim Iran di bln Ramadan serta menunjukkan solidaritas.

[Reuters @Reuters]

Indonesia seeks $5 bln budget savings to face Iran war impact https://t.co/KMUOUXciiA https://t.co/KMUOUXciiA

[Amitav Acharya @AmitavAcharya]

Control of the Strait of Hormuz puts Iran in the driver’s seat, by Middle East analyst, James M. Dorsey
"For all practical purposes, Iran’s assertion of control has put the Islamic Republic in the war’s driver’s seat." https://t.co/xJgWxtouxz

[CNN International @cnni]

The US Supreme Court announced it will decide whether President Donald Trump can terminate temporary deportation protections for hundreds of thousands of foreign nationals, agreeing to hear arguments next month on an issue that has been central to the administration’s immigration agenda. https://t.co/1scQhR08v8

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Qatar asked the United States to finish Iran. Israel struck South Pars. Qatar now condemns the strike as a threat to global energy security.

That is not hypocrisy. It is geology.

South Pars and Qatar’s North Field are the same reservoir. The largest gas deposit on Earth, split by a maritime border. Iran produces from one side. Qatar produces from the other. When Israeli bombs hit Phase 14 processing facilities on the Iranian side, they did not just damage Iranian gas production. They introduced risk to the reservoir pressure dynamics that govern Qatar’s $130 billion annual LNG export machine.

Qatar is the world’s largest LNG exporter. Its entire economic model rests on the North Field. The expansion to North Field East and North Field South, hundreds of billions in committed investment, depends on stable reservoir conditions across the shared geology. A sustained strike campaign on Iranian extraction infrastructure could alter pressure gradients, force production adjustments, or trigger precautionary shutdowns on the Qatari side. The physics does not recognise the border.

Qatar lobbied alongside Saudi Arabia and the UAE for full Iranian military neutralisation. Reuters confirmed it. All six GCC states pressed Washington not to stop short. Qatar wanted Iran’s missile capability destroyed. Qatar wanted the nuclear threat eliminated. Qatar wanted the drones stopped. What Qatar did not want was bombs landing on the gas field that funds its sovereignty.

This is the trap that precision warfare creates when the target shares geology with the ally.

Now layer the oil forecast. Citi raised its Brent base case to $110 to $120 per barrel in the coming days, with a bull scenario of $150 to $200 if Iran targets more energy infrastructure or the strait stays closed longer. Bear case: $65 to $70 if a deal reopens flows. Brent settled near $109 on March 18, already inside the base range. The bull case is not a forecast. It is a warning.

Citi simultaneously raised its aluminium target to $3,600 per tonne with a bull case of $4,000, citing Gulf force majeure and shipping disruptions. The metals market is now pricing what the oil market has not yet fully absorbed: this is not a crude shock. It is a multi-input industrial shock.

At $150 oil, the fertiliser transmission into American agriculture accelerates catastrophically. Natural gas is the feedstock for urea. Higher gas prices mean higher nitrogen costs on top of the Hormuz blockade premium. The farmer in Iowa who is already choosing soybeans at $610 urea would face nitrogen economics that make corn unplantable at any margin. The corn-to-soy shift currently projected at 4.8 million acres could double.

Qatar’s condemnation will not stop the strikes. Israel’s targeting circle policy authorises elimination of any Iranian official without additional approval. The IRGC published satellite images of Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, both Qatari facilities, as imminent strike targets. Qatar condemns the attack on the field it shares with Iran while Iran threatens the facilities Qatar operates on its own soil.

The world’s largest LNG exporter is caught between the ally that bombed its geology and the enemy that is targeting its infrastructure. Both sides are hitting Qatar’s gas. Neither side is asking permission.

The reservoir does not care about diplomacy. The urea price does not care about condemnations. And the planting season does not care about either.

https://t.co/iFmUcarGdV

[Amitav Acharya @AmitavAcharya]

After refusing Trump's call for help in reopening Strait of Hormuz, the Europeans and others could try to make their deals with Iran to gain safe passage, bilaterally and transactionally. A dose of Trump's own medicine. This also means a serious blow to NATO & the West.

[Bloomberg @business]

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto said he was “pretty surprised” by the US-Israel War in Iran, adding that he didn’t see any “rationality” in the military campaign https://t.co/m2KLEYUqrI

[Dr.Hotha🇸🇦د.هوذة @HothaAli]

🚨BREAKING:

Saudi FM says Israel is an “extremist and arrogant entity” seeking violence and rejecting all attempts at peace.

[Al Jazeera English @AJEnglish]

BREAKING: ⁠Qatar’s ⁠Minister of Energy Saad al-Kaabi ⁠says US-Israeli war on Iran could “bring down the economies of the world”, predicting all Gulf energy exporters would shut down production within weeks.

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/FaZ0okyXR5

[The Daily CPEC @TheDailyCPEC]

🚨BREAKING: Qatar Airways suspends all flight services due to the ongoing closure of Qatar’s airspace.

[News Algebra @NewsAlgebraIND]

BIG NEWS 🚨 $2.3 Billion UAE Tycoon publicly slams Donald Trump over Iran War.

He asks -

"Who Gave You Authority To Turn Our Region Into A Battlefield?"

"You have placed the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab countries at the heart of a danger they did not choose"

"Thank God, we are strong and capable of defending ourselves, and we have armies and defenses that protect our homelands"

He mocks Trump over ‘Board of Peace’ Initiative

"Much of the funding for the Board of Peace came from Middle Eastern countries, including the Gulf states"

"And these countries have the right to ask today: Where did this money go?"