Puruff

[Puruff @puruff]

3/3
Timing matters: this lands the day after the US-Iran deal. Oil down, risk-on returning, and the biggest BTC holder flips from seller to buyer. Another sign the bottom may be in. Bullish read for $CSHR into the Aug 5 H1 report. ⚠️ I hold $CSHR . Not financial advice.

[Puruff @puruff]

1/3
Two weeks ago Strategy sold 32 BTC and it crushed sentiment — the symbolic "ultimate long-hand is selling" moment that helped trigger the selloff. Today? They bought 1,587 BTC for $100M, taking their reserve to ₿846,842. Complete reversal. bitcoin:native

[Puruff @puruff]

2/3
And they raised their USD reserve by $100M to $1.1B at the same time. That's strength — they're building both sides, not selling BTC to cover dividends (the exact fear behind the May sale). Saylor is buying these levels. bitcoin:native

[Puruff @puruff]

4/4
Also worth noting: $CSHR has moved the H1 2026 earnings call to August 5 (from the previously expected late July). That’s the next real catalyst — first proper US GAAP half-year numbers for US investors. Mark your calendars. $CSHR @CoinSharesGroup

[Puruff @puruff]

1/3
Quick math on $CSHR: even if BTC climbs to $70K in Jun/Jul and $80K from Aug onward and holds there, the full-year 2026 average only lands at ~$75K. $CSHR

[Puruff @puruff]

3/3
So 2026 is a recovery year for AM revenue, not a record one. The real earnings leverage shows up in 2027 if prices hold up. Patience pays here. ⚠️ I hold $CSHR. Not financial advice. $CSHR

[Puruff @puruff]

6/6
So: Iran resolved ✅ Oil down ✅ Inflation cooling ✅ BTC bouncing ✅ Risk-on returning. If the Fed plays along Wednesday, this could be the bottom we've been waiting for. ⚠️ I hold $CSHR. Not financial advice — DYOR. @CoinSharesGroup

[Puruff @puruff]

1/6
Is this the turn? 🤔 The macro overhang that's crushed crypto since February may have just lifted. US-Iran deal signed, Strait of Hormuz reopening, US naval blockade lifted. Oil down 3%+. The single biggest weight on sentiment is gone. $CSHR

[Puruff @puruff]

5/6
And contrary to popular belief, summer isn't the dead zone people assume. "Sell in May" hasn't worked since 2010, July is historically green (+7-8% avg), and the real seasonal strength — Oct/Nov — lines up perfectly with CSHR's lock-up expiry & Russell inclusion. $CSHR

[Puruff @puruff]

@LuisAntonV Bottom line: we won’t know exact H1 flows until July 28. But my estimate assumes the market stays roughly where it is now and net flows for the year are ~0. On that basis the numbers still hold up. $CSHR

[Puruff @puruff]

1/7🧵 Update on the $CSHR thesis after digging into their SEC 6-K filing. The downside is even better protected than I thought — and the upside math is compelling. Here's the refined scenario analysis. 👇

[Puruff @puruff]

@LuisAntonV And CoinShares is an outlier: in FY2025 they posted +$1.1B net organic inflows while many US peers saw outflows — CoinShares Physical was Europe’s #1 ETP by net inflows. Their flows hold up better than peers. On altcoins: yes, my AUM estimates cover the full basket, not just BTC.

[Puruff @puruff]

7/7And $CSHR tracks BTC closely. If BTC recovers to $70-80K, I'd expect CSHR to trade $6-7 — that's 50-75% upside from here. Add Russell inclusion (Nov) + H1 report (July 28) as catalysts. ⚠️ I hold $CSHR. Not financial advice — DYOR. @CoinSharesGroup

[Puruff @puruff]

6/7The point: at $4.30, a BTC price of $40-50K is essentially already priced in. The market is discounting the bear case. So the asymmetry is clear — limited downside, leveraged upside. $CSHR