🅿️ushinFX

📈A Teacher in the Research business | Sharing market insight and fundamental edge

[🅿️ushinFX @Pushiin_P]

How to Trade the Expectation,Not the News Itself (Thread🧵)

1 Most traders lose trading news.

Why?

Because they’re trading the news print…
But smart money trades the expectation before the news even drops.

Here’s how to trade the build-up, not the chaos 🧠👇

2
Markets don’t move on numbers alone.
They move on surprises and sentiment.

If CPI is expected to fall, the USD may already start dropping days earlier.
By the time the data drops, the move is over.

3
🔑 “Buy the rumor. Sell the news.”

That’s the game.

If CPI is expected to be soft → USD weakens beforehand.
If you wait for the release, you’re already late.

4
Here’s how to trade expectations like a pro:

✔ Understand forecast vs market sentiment
✔ Track positioning
✔ Follow price action before the event
✔ Enter early, exit around the news

5
🧠 Example:

CPI forecast = 2.9%
Traders expect a Fed pause

USD weakens 24 hours before CPI.

→ You short USD before the release
→ You exit on the spike while others chase

Simple. Sharp.

6
Data doesn’t move markets.
Expectations do.

And expectations get priced in early.

Stop reacting to headlines.
Start trading the build-up

7
If you master this mindset,
you’ll stop drowning after every CPI, NFP, or FOMC.

Because you’ll already be on the wave… not under it 🌊

8
Follow for clean, no-FOMO forex content that sharpens your edge.

[Steven Goldstein @AlphaMind101]

Every trader has a part of themself that is an Edge they can leverage to succeed but they also have an opposing side to that edge which is blunt and which can undermine them.

Learning to leverage the Edge whilst mitigating the effects of the blunt side are crucial to success.

For some people Edge is a willingness to take large risks when the opportunities arise, but equally they can be challenged when it comes to risk management, and blow-up risk is high.

The opposing tend to have a deep analytical streak which enables them to find great ideas, and whilst their risk aversion keeps them safe, they need a process that allows them to take and manage risk, and stay with it.

Other types are highly intuitive, they feel and sense opportunities and can be highly creative, seeing the opportunities (and threats) early, but equally lack structure and adherence to processes, which can undermine them.

The opposing type can be intensely structured and process driven, but can be so rigid with requiring proof, that they delay executing, which reduces the potential reward value, or they can be so slow to exit for the same reason, that much value can be eroded.

Knowing yourself, knowing how to bring the best of yourself to the moment, knowing how and when to minimise the impact of your weaknesses, are vital parts of the trader’s dilemma.

[🅿️ushinFX @Pushiin_P]

CPI with some easy money

[Tradeloq @tradeloqfx]

How to TRADE CPI :

Have you ever thought if you could have a CPI CHEATCODE ?

That would be insane. Right ?

There is one.

A thread.

[🅿️ushinFX @Pushiin_P]

@BeSomebodyFX Love it.
Any chance you could add rate pricing for CHF & NZD too?

[🅿️ushinFX @Pushiin_P]

@AnantaSumantera People still say fundamentals don’t matter in this Trump wide era?

[🅿️ushinFX @Pushiin_P]

@BeSomebodyFX @tradeloqfx Just need warsh to pull the trigger

[🅿️ushinFX @Pushiin_P]

@BeSomebodyFX Yeah, that’s the better wording

[Nic @puckrin]

Yen shorts are at their highest level in 2 years.

Tomorrow the BOJ is expected to hike rates.

But, if they signal more hikes ahead, those shorts unwind fast.

This could have broader implications for the carry trade - as it did in July 2024.

Watch closely.

[Tradeloq @tradeloqfx]

Markets Update:

A lot has changed over the weekend and we perfectly capitalized on it.

But what's next ?

We expect the MOU to hold and not fall apart.

At the same time we believe that the war is not over.

Lets put it in a simple way to have clear BIAS and NARRATIVE.

1) The "deal" which US and Iran have agreed upon is not a "deal" , its an MOU ( Memorandum Of Understanding )

2) The MOU doesn't end the war or finalizes anything in itself.

3) The MOU simply sets specific "points" to be talked about in a negotiations period.

4) US and Iran have not agreed on ending the war, they have agreed to talk to end the war.

So what the markets are celebrating if MOU is nothing more than an illusion ?

Well, markets never feared the war. They feared Oil supply disruption.

The agreed MOU b/w US and Iran takes that fear away for the "short-term"

Both US & Iran will lift up their blockade, allowing secure transit of vessels (for the negotiations period only)

Although its a fact that even if it all has ended permanently (just an assumption), Oil supply will take months to be back at pre-war levels, but markets are forward-looking, they don't care about that. Hence, expect spot oil to keep moving lower towards $75 demand zone

Now the key question.

Why we expect this MOU to hold ?

For this, we first need to understand the thesis about WHY this MOU actually happened:

We have mid-terms this year in the United States Of America.

Mid-term campaigns will start somewhere in July.

Winning Mid-terms is crucial, for power, authority and more importantly to have a strong base for the next Presidential Elections.

You cant win mid-terms or even build a strong base around them if your credibility is crumbling, if you are in an active war, if you have rising inflation, elevated Oil, rising interest rates expectations, rising recession fears and fearful markets.

That's why the MOU happened (theory).
To calm the markets
To suppress the Oil prices, inflation and interest rates expectations
To re-build credibility
To come out as a hero to the world who saved a major Oil chokepoint and stopped Iran to get nuclear weapons (that's how the US will portray it)

So, if the MOU happened for the sake of mid-terms, Trump will very likely try to drag it until at least mid-terms.

There's one more strategical reasoning (theory) to this as well:

When US first attacked Iran in 2026, Iran surprised them.

Attacks on GCC, American bases, SOH blockage

And after all of this, did US achieve anything (like regime change ?) NO.

After the failure of first round, they now need more time, intel and preparation for the next round, to achieve their goals, to end it for once and all.

They couldn't launch a major escalation just yet, with already fearful markets and mid-terms around the corner, hence an MOU has been brought in to BUY TIME.

Due to everything explained above, we are expecting MOU to hold until mid-terms.

Just my 2 cents.

[🅿️ushinFX @Pushiin_P]

@royal_vibesPR @_AsiwajuLerry One chance is all you need

[🅿️ushinFX @Pushiin_P]

@JDVance @financialjuice Enough with the manipulations bro, it’s tiring

[Steven Goldstein @AlphaMind101]

In golf, the principle is simple: Focus on the next shot, not the last one.

Whatever just happened, good or bad, you let it go. > You don't carry it with you.

This matters even more after a bad shot. - After a bad shot, you ruminate, feel unlucky, hard done by, want to show what you can do, are desperate to prove you can do better. And in that state, you seize up and get worse.

The only way through is to "let go", clear your head, move-on, focus on what's in front of you. - RESET

[Charles @charliefx_]

You gotta be a delusional optimist to see a version of yourself no one else around you can currently see long before you manifest that reality, the most successful people have this trait

[BeSomebodyFX @BeSomebodyFX]

The biggest mistake in fundamental analysis is trying to track too many variables

I see you!

Building complex systems to monitor PMI, consumer confidence, trade balances, building permits, GDP, and you name it!

That's just going to turn you into an economist

And economists are NOT traders!

To simplify (and make actionable) your fundamental analysis, look at what central banks are legally mandated to manage:

1. Price stability (inflation)
2. Maximum employment (labor market)

These are the only two variables that consistently move the needle for interest rate decisions

If core inflation is sticky and the labor market is strong, the central bank has to go hawkish

If both are softening, the central bank has to go dovish

And that's what matters for the currency

Not if building permits are strong or weak

But rather if the central bank will hike or cut

That's fundamental analysis

[🅿️ushinFX @Pushiin_P]

@ChelseaFC My gaffer❤️

[🅿️ushinFX @Pushiin_P]

@ChelseaFC Amazing!

[Fabrizio Romano @FabrizioRomano]

🚨 OFFICIAL: Xabi Alonso, unveiled and confirmed as new a Chelsea manager. 🔵👋🏼

[🅿️ushinFX @Pushiin_P]

@9to5toMarkets Nasdaq for me, there will always be opportunity in tech

[BeSomebodyFX @BeSomebodyFX]

You trade one pair

EURUSD
Every day
Regardless of what's happening

You're the "EURUSD guy"

They tell you it's an edge

That you should get familiar with a specific pair

Well...

That's nonsense!

You're just setting yourself up for dumb trades

Some months, EURUSD just chops sideways
No clear narrative, no real edge
It just doesn't "provide"

Meanwhile commodities might be in a clean macro trend

Or a clear monetary policy divergence is setting up a clean trend somewhere else

But you're stuck on EURUSD because it feels... familiar

Stop being obsessed with a specific pair
Be obsessed with the opportunity

Some months that's in currencies

Some months that's in equities

Some months it's a specific pair you've never even looked at before

The task of a macro trader isn't to trade his favorite pair

The task is to follow the story
Wherever it's unfolding
Even if you've never opened that chart before